Sunday, January 31, 2010

7 Furlong Races in the Sun

Today we look at two seven furlong stakes races in the sunny climates of Florida and California.  A great way to spend our Sunday.

Gulfstream Race 9 {Forward Gal~G2~7 furlongs~3 year old~fillies~Stakes}
A full field assembles for what will be a very close race.  We like the 100% in the money, Sister Resistor (Desormeaux / McPeek).  She shows a decent last out speed number, a three race progression, and a stellar workout.  Like he chances for victory here.  She Be Wild (Leparoux / Catalano) should be her chief competition if she takes well to the dirt surface.  How can you not like this millionaire who is also posts an 100% in the money record.  She Be Wild has also posted the best peaking three workout tab.  Alialea (Prado / Pletcher) looks very solid with the highest last out speed number, coming down in distance, and a great four workout tab.  Rounding out those with a chance to make their way to the winners circle will be Liam's Dream (Rose / A. Dutrow).  She has trained very well posting three good workouts and will making her third career start. Could be the surprise.  Let's play Gulfstream.

$2 SHOW:  #11 Sister Resistor
$2 SHOW:  #13 Liam's Dream
10 CENT Superfecta:  #11 Sister Resistor / #6 She Be Wild / #13 Liam's Dream, #7 Alialea / #13, #7

Santa Anita Race 8 {Santa Monica Handicap~G1~7 furlongs~4 year old Up~fillies/mares}
A very competitve race will unfold here.  Evita Argentina (Rosario / Sadler) looks to have all the tools at her disposal to take the victory.  Solid last out speed number and a terrific set of three workouts, she will be ready.  Captain's Lover(SAF) (Solis / Pletcher) will be making a turf to all weather start and looks well prepared for it.  Strong last out speed number, coming down in distance and four quality workouts will help her menace.  Proviso(GB) (Bejarano / Mott) has posted the highest last out speed number, is coming down in distance and shows two quality peaking workouts.  Rounding out the group that will get a piece of the purse will be Diamondrella (Gomez / Stevens) and Sweet August Moon (Talamo / Koriner).  Both have posted aggressive workouts and have decent last out speed numbers.  Let's enjoy Santa Anita.

$2 SHOW:  #3 Evita Argentina
$2 SHOW:  #4 Captain's Lover
10 CENT Superfecta:  #3 Evita Argentina / #4 Captain's Lover(SAF) / #7 Proviso(GB) / #1 Diamondrella, #10 Sweet August Moon

















Saturday's Results
Gulfstream R7.  Our first pick, Speak Easy Gal, won (1st) for show money of $3.00.  Our second pick, Loxy Lady, finished 2nd for show money of $4.60.  Superfecta went 11-6-4-7.
Santa Anita R8.  Our first pick, Bad Action, and our second pick, Compari, were both scratched from the race.  Consequently, we could not place a 10 CENT Superfecta.
Sam Houston R9.  Our first pick, Pool Play, finished 8th.  Our second pick, King Dan, was scratched.  As a result NO 10 Cent Superfecta could be placed. 
Our Bankroll sits at $14.50.
 

Saturday, January 30, 2010

Racing All Day Long

Today we look at three fantastic races from the East Coast to the West Coast and then the Gulf Coast.  All relatively warm climate races.  Should be suns of fun.

Gulfstream Race 7 {1 1/16 mile~Turf~4 year old Up~fillies/mares~Allowance}
A great full field lines up for this one, including four on the also eligible list waiting to go. 
Speak Easy Gal (Trujillo / Wolfson) looks like the one to beat.  She has some of the best speed numbers across the board and is 100% in the money on the surface, at the distance and on the track.  There is a lot to like about this gal.  Loxy Lady (A. Garcia / Hennig) shows a strong last out speed number and has put in a respectable workout tab.  Oakshela (Castro / J. Carroll) is another with a fine last out speed number and a series of three peaking workouts. She will be there with the wall of closers at the turn.  Miss MVP (Bravo / Hills) shows a fine peaking workout series of two.  Her distance speed number is right near the top.  Let's play Gulfstream.

$2 SHOW:  #11 Speak Easy Gal
$2 SHOW:  #6 Loxy Lady
10 CENT Superfecta:  #11 Speak Easy Gal / #6 Loxy Lady / #8 Oakshela / #2 Miss MVP

Santa Anita Race 8 {Sunshine Millions Classic~1 1/8 mile~4 year old UP~ Stakes}
A very strong filed assembles for this stakes race.  There is no clear favorite of the group.  We will give a slight edge to the closer, Bad Action (J. Velazquez / Pletcher).  He can be considered a distance specialist with a fine last out speed number and a peaking four workout set.  Compari (Gomez / M. Jones) looks very good as well.  He is expected to be the speed and is holding on to a 100% in the money record going into this race.  Jeranimo (Blanc / Pender) is coming off the best last out speed number of the group.  He looks competitive if he can move up to this distance.  Three horses that will compete for the victory are The Usual Q.T. (Espinoza / Cassidy), who is vying for his sixth win in a row; Bold Chieftain (R. Baze / Morey), who has the top overall speed number; and Wicked Style (Bejarano / Arnold) who shows a very strong workout tab going into this race.  Let's give this challenging Santa Anita race a shot.

$2 SHOW:  #6 Bad Action
$2 SHOW:  #8 Compari
10 CENT Superfecta:  #6 Bad Action / #8 Compari / #1 Jeranimo / #7 The Usual Q.T., #9 Bold Chieftain, #10 Wicked Style.

Sam Houston Race 9 {John B. Conally Handicap~G3~1 1/8 mile~Turf~3 year old Up~Stakes}
This will be an exciting evening race going off at approximately 10:28 PM Central Time.  A full field of fourteen goes to the gate.  This will not be a race for the faint of heart handicapper.  Any horse in this field can win this race. All have posted triple digit speed numbers over their career, some on a consitent basis.  We like the Woodbine invader, Pool Play (Husbands / Casse) in this race. He has the top last out speed number and a nice peaking two workout set.  King Dan (Graham / Keen) will challenge with a top last out speed number and four high level workouts.  Going Ballistic (Quinonez / D. Von Hemmel) has the highest speed number on the Sam Houston track, of the group.  Four solid workouts indicate he is ready to fire.  Red Rock Creek (C. Landeros / Asmussen) is tied with Going Ballistic with the best speed numbers across the board.  Add to that, twenty-three career wins and an aggressive three workout tab and this older guy will be ready to compete.  Orientate Express (Murphy / K. Von Hemmel) has fired a terrific two workout set and like King Dan has the second highest last out speed number.  Will no doubt threaten near the lead.  Let's play a night-cap at Sam Houston.

$2 SHOW:  #11 Pool Play
$2 SHOW:  #3 King Dan
10 CENT Superfecta:  #11 Pool Play / #3 King Dan / #6 Going Ballistic / #1A Red Rock Creek, #10 Orientate Express.

















Friday's Results
Aqueduct R8.  Our first pick, William Thomas finished 8th (last).  Our second pick, Gold Vendetta, finished 2nd for $4.30 in show money.  No 10 CENT Superfecta for this race.
Gulfstream R7.  Our first pick, Becky's Kitten, finished 4th.  Our second pick, On Vacation, finished 7th.  Superfecta went 1-2-3-5.
Our bankroll sits at $13.00.

Friday, January 29, 2010

Aqueduct to Gulfstream on a Friday

Thank goodness it is Friday!  We look at a couple of nice races on the East coast.

Aqueduct Race 8 {6 furlongs~4 year old Up~Optional Claiming}
A nice little sprint race.  William Thomas (Cohen / Klesaris) looks to be the best of this group.  He has solid speed numbers and a good deal of speed to win this one.  Gold Vendetta (Davis / Ronen) also has solid speed numbers across the board and a nice peaking workout going into this one.  Freddy the Cap (Bocachica / Barrera) has worked out fabulously for this race posting three swift workouts.  He is proven on this track with a nice speed number to boot.  Al's Lark (Hill / Baker) has a decent last out speed number and a couple of nice peaking workouts. He will menace for the win.  Let's play Aqueduct.

$2 SHOW:  #3 William Thomas
$2 SHOW:  #6 Gold Vendetta
NO 10 CENT Superfecta for this race.

Gulfstream Race 7 {1 mile~Turf~3 year old~Allowance}
Another exciting Turf race down in the Florida sunshine.  This will be a close race with five competitors all capable of making into the winners circle.  Becky's Kitten (Leparoux / Ward) has the highest speed number at the distance and has rolled out two quality workouts.  On Vacation (Desormeaux / Mott) has a nice speed number at a longer distance, a good three race progression, and three decent workouts.  Trippo (C. Velasquez / Alexander) has the best workout tab of the group showing a nice three race peaking work tab.  Drover (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) has a nice last out speed number and four solid workouts.  Major Momentum (Lezcano / Klesaris) shows a combination of a decent last out speed number, a good three race progression, and a nice peaking workout.  He should have the momentum to share in the purse pie.  Let's roll at Gulfstream.

$2 SHOW:  #5 Becky's Kitten
$2 SHOW:  #4 On Vacation
10 CENT Superfecta:  #5 Becky's Kitten / #4 On Vacation / #3 Trippo / #1 Drover, #6 Major Momentum.

















Thursday's Results
Oaklawn R8.  Our first pick, Miss Atlantic, finished third for $2.80 in show money.  Our second pick, Far East, won (1st) for $3.20 in show money.  There was NO 10 cent Superfecta for this race.
Delta Downs R2.  Our first pick, Who Let The Cat In, won (1st) for $2.20 in show money.  Our second pick, Not Too Proud, finished third for $3.80 in show money.  Superfecta went 1-7-5-8.
Bankroll sits at $16.90.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Down in the South at Oaklawn and Delta Downs

Today we look at an Optional Claimer at Oaklawn and an Allowance at Delta Downs.  We are down in the South where the horses run well.

Oaklawn Race 8 {1 1/16 mile~4 year old Up~fillies/mares~Optional Claiming}
A modest group of gals line up for this race.  Miss Atlantic (Berry / Morse) has a slight edge as she has run well over this track posting the highest speed number.  She is also coming off a race in which she has the highest speed number and four nice peaking workouts.  Far East (Hamilton / Von Hemel) looks to be her closest competitor.  She is 100% in the money at the distance and has the best workout tab of the group.  Abby the Great (Rosier / McNair) looks solid at the distance and has put in three strong workouts in preparation for the race. My Angel's Halo (Mojica / Mullins) looks to step forward with a four race progression and two very solid workouts.  Also she has a good jockey / trainer combination.  Let's play Oaklawn.

$2 SHOW:  #6 Miss Atlantic
$2 SHOW:  #2 Far East
10 CENT Superfecta:  #6 Miss Atlantic / #2 Far East / #4 Abby the Great, #7 My Angel's Halo / #4, #7

Delta Downs Race 2 {6 1/2 furlongs~4 year old Up~Allowance}
A solid group of sprinters go to the gate in this one.  Who Let The Cat In (C. Melancon / Bourgeois) looks to be the strongest one in this race. He posted the highest speed number last out, is 100% in the money at the distance, and has posted the best workout tab of the group.  He appears ready for a victory.  Not Too Proud (D.L. Borque / Bemis) looks solid for this one too.  He has posted a decent speed number last out and is has a 100% Win record at this distance.  Justaclown (Saenz / Young) has some very good speed numbers across the board and has run well at Delta Downs.  He should be able to grab a piece of the pie.  Toss For Cash (Borque / Badeaux) shows a nice last out speed number and has coupled that with two solid workouts.  Zarb's Dahar (Judkins / Harrison) has the top speed numbers across the board, a nice two race progression and a nice peaking workout.  He could be a solid factor in the race.  Let's give Delta Downs a shot.

$2 SHOW:  #1 Who Let The Cat In
$2 SHOW:  #5 Not Too Proud
10 CENT Superfecta: #1 Who Let The Cat In / #5 Not Too Proud / #7 Justaclown / #2 Toss For Cash, #3 Zarb's Dahar.
















Last Sunday's Results
Aqueduct R8.  Our first pick, Hour Glass, won (1st) for $2.50 show money.  Our second pick, Lights Off Annie, finished 3rd for $2.60 in show money.  No 10 CENT Superfecta for this race.
Fairgrounds R7.  Our pick, Handleman, finished 2nd for $2.80 in show money.  Superfecta went 9-4-5-8.
Our bankroll sits at $13.10.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Still More 4Q 2010 Metrics

Here are some more metrics for the fourth quarter of 2010.  These are from our handicapping for races at four different tracks.  It is important to keep track of how well you do and figure out areas where you can improve your overall handicapping.

Belmont:  3 races  3-0-0  100% Win  100% In the money.
Keeneland  16 races  3-1-5  19% Win  57% In the money.
Santa Anita  18 races  5-3-3  28% Win  62% In the money.
Fairgrounds  8 races  1-0-0  13% Win  13% In the money.

The figures above show the number of races we handicapped for the 4Q 2010 and then the number of Firsts-Seconds-Thirds.  We then show the all important WIN percentage and then the In the money (ITM) percentage.

As you can see we did very well with the Belmont races, but very poorly with our Fairgrounds handicapping.  Interestingly we did o.k. at the two all weather tracks although some races included in the measurements where on turf.

January has been a very challenging month.  We hope to have the metrics for January completed by the second Wednesday of February.

Good Luck in your handicapping.


Sunday, January 24, 2010

Aqueduct to Fairgrounds

On this Sunday we look at a couple of nice sprint races.  One each at Aqueduct and at Fairgrounds.

Aqueduct Race 8 {6 furlongs~4 year old Up~fillies/mares~Optional Claiming}
A small field of six goes to the gate.  Hour Glass (Cohen / Pletcher) has a small edge with a good speed number over the distance and three quality workouts.  She has a 100% in the money record over this six furlong distance.  La Concerto (Lopez / Asmussen) will challenge as she has superb speed figures across the board.  La Concerto also has put in a fine workout and likes the Aqueduct track.  Lights Off Annie (Dominguez / Levine) has strong speed numbers across the board and the best workout tab of the group.  She also has the highest speed number over the Aqueduct track.  Let's play Aqueduct.

$2 SHOW:  #4 Hour Glass
$2 SHOW: #5 Lights Off Annie
NO 10 CENT Superfecta fot this race.

Fairgrounds Race 7 {5 1/2 Furlongs~Turf~4 year old Up~Allowance}
A full field of sprinter lines up for this turf race.  Handleman (Hernandez / Margolis) appears to be the best prepared to take this race.  An exellent last out speed number coupled with a couple of decent workouts should get this guy to the wire first.  His chief competition will be More Than Tactics (Valenzuela / Nicks).  He shows a last out speed number, the highest speed number at the distance, and three fine workouts should be able to get him there.  He is a speedster coming from an outside post.  Capt Obvious (Torres / Foley) has had some time off, but fired a great workout prepping for this race.  He looks ready.  Both Central City (Theriot / Werner) and Rubicund (Perrodin / Mouton) will be factors in this race.  Rubicond has speed and has put in three good workouts.  Central City is moving from dirt to grass with three exceptional workouts.  Trainer, Ronny Werner is 47% in the money with starters going on the grass for the first time.  This race promises to be a very exciting race.  Let's play Fairgrounds.

$2 WIN / SHOW: #4 Handleman
10 CENT Superfecta:  #4 Handleman / #10 More Than Tactics / #6 Capt Obvious / #9 Central City, #5 Rubicund.
















Saturday's Results
Fairgrounds R10.  Our first pick, Worldly, finished 5th.  Our second pick, Letsgetitonmon finished 3rd for $5.00 in show money.  Superfecta went 11-1-8-9.
Santa Anita R8.  Our pick, Dancing In Silks, finished 3rd for $2.60 in show money.  Superfecta went 8-9-1-7.
Our Bankroll sits at $9.40.

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Santa Anita and Fairgrounds Fun

Today is Saturday stakes day.  One might say that it is the start of the road to the Kentucky Derby for all the three year olds.  We look at the LeComte at Fairgrounds as one of the prep races on the road to the roses.  Also, a nice Palos Verdes Handicap at Santa Anita.

Fairgrounds Race 10 {LeComte~G3~1 mile 40 yards~3 year old~Stakes}
There are a number of future stars in this race.  It is a tough one to call.  All of these horses have worked out magnificently for this race.  Worldly (Albarado / McGee) has a very slight edge as he has the top speed number at the distance.  He also has a decent speed number last out coupled with two peaking workouts.  Letsgetitmon (Bridgmohan / Asmussen) looks terrific in this spot.  He has traveled over the distance with a strong speed number and is another with a peaking three workout tab.  Maximus Ruler (Torres / Hanna) is 100% in the money with the two races he has run.  He will be moving up slightly and shows three peaking workouts.  There are four others in this race who will contend for the victory.  Cool Bullet (Hernandez / Margolis) has fired the overall top speed number and has two wins from two races over the Fairgrounds track.  Citrus Kid (Mena / Terranova) is coming down in distance from his last out and has the best peaking workout tab.  Callide Valley (lanerie / Kenneally) also is coming down in distance with a strong peaking three workout tab.  Ron the Greek (Graham / Amoss) will be the surprise in this race.  He shows a decent last out speed number and a solid set of four peaking workouts.  It also helps that Ron the Greek has a very strong jockey / trainer team.  Let's have fun at Fairgrounds.

$2 SHOW:  #3 Worldly
$2 SHOW:  #8 Letsgetitonmon
10 CENT Superfecta:  #3 Worldly / #8 Letsgetitonmon / #1 Maximus Ruler / #9 Cool Bullet, #5 Citrus Kid, #6 Callide Valley, #11 Ron the Greek.

Santa Anita Race 8 {Palos Verdes Handicap~G2~6 furlongs~4 year old Up~Stakes}
This may very well be Dancing In Silks (Rosario / Gaines) race to lose.  Trainer, Carla Gaines has done a fabulous job with this horse.  He has won four of five over the distance and is tied with the best speed number at the distance.  He loves this track and has fired a splendid workout tab in preperation for this race.  Ez Dreamer (Solis / Owens) is the horse tied with Silks with the highest speed number at the distance.  With a very nice last out speed number, two race progression, and an 89% in the money record at the distance, he will be a main contender for the victory.  Kinsale King (M. Garcia / O'Callahan) has scored the best workout tab of the eight in this field.  He appears to be perfectly peaked for this race.  He will be the speed and should hold on for a piece of the purse.  Eaton's Gift (T. Baze / Mitchell) may well be the surprise in this contest as he shows the second highest speed number at the distance.  He also shows two fine workouts leading up to this.  Let's play Santa Anita.

$2 WIN / SHOW:  #1 Dancing In Silks
10 CENT Superfecta:  #1 Dancing In Silk / #2 Ez Dreamer, #7 Kinsale King / #4 Eaton's Gift, #2, #7 / #2, #4, #7.
















Friday's Results
Turf Paradise R8.  Whole race card was cancelled due to bad weather.
Turfway R9.  Our first pick, Complicity, was scratched. Our second pick, Rose of Killarney, finished 5th (last).  There was NO Superfecta due to the scratch.
Bankroll sits at $10.20.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Double Turf; Turf Paradise and Turfway Park

Thank goodness it’s Friday. Today we look at a sprint at Turf Paradise and a route at Turfway Park.


Turf Paradise Race 8 {5 furlongs~4 year old Up~fillies/mares~Allowance}
A very nice group of gals lines up for this one. Lonely And Free (Dieguez / Toye) looks very strong with very respectable speed numbers across the board. With a good last out speed number and a sharp workout to boot she will run well. Chukchi Sunrise (Medina / Kenney) has a nice work out tab in preparation for this race couple with a strong work out tab. What A Day (Barton / Alton) has the second highest speed number at the distance as well as an enviable 80% in the money record at this distance. She should be the chief competition to Lonely And Free. Both I’m A Princess (V. Baze / Costa) and South of France (Heiler / Tracy) will both be factors in this race. I’m A Princess has the highest speed number at this distance and has a 75% win record at the distance. South of France has a terrific jockey-trainer combo and will close in this sprint. Let’s play Turf Paradise.

$2 WIN / SHOW: #1 Lonely And Free
10 CENT Superfecta: #1 Lonely And Free / #7 Chukchi Sunrise / #8 What A Day / #4 I’m A Princess, #6 South of France.

Turfway Park Race 9 {1 mile~4 year old Up~fillies/mares~Optional Claiming}
A short field of six goes to the gate for this race. Complicity (McKee / Maker) looks much the best. In her last race she was eased, but she sports the highest speed numbers across the board. Her two workouts look good too. Rose of Killarney (Prescott / Thornbury) looks solid with decent speed numbers. She is coming down in distance from her last out and has a solid peaking workout going into this race. Blissful Song (Creed / Seglin) looks to make a nice transition from turf to all weather. She has the strongest peaking workout tab among the six. Must Be Gold (Gonzales / Fojan) will be closing from the quarter pole. She is coming down in distance from her last out she could be the surprise in this race. Let’s play Turfway.

$2 SHOW: #6 Complicity
$2 SHOW: #5 Rose of Killarney
10 CENT Superfecta: #6 Complicity / #5 Rose of Killarney / #4 Blissful Song / #2 Must Be Gold.















Thursday’s Results
January is shaping up to be a very tough month.
Aqueduct R8. Our first pick, Vinnie Van Go, finished 4th, out of the money. Our second pick, Whirlwind Poppy, finished a disappointing 9th (last). NO Superfecta.
Oaklawn R8. Our pick, Sligo Joe, finished 7th (last).
We will supplement our bankroll to bring it up to $10.20.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

A.O., A.O., (Aqueduct, Oaklawn)

Aqueduct Race 8 {1 1/16 mile~4 year old Up~NY~Allowance}

A fairly solid group goes to the gate in this race. Vinnie Van Go (Saez / Contessa) looks to have a slight edge to get the victory. He shows some consistent speed numbers last out and has the best work out tab of the group. Whirlwind Poppy (Jara / Maker) looks ready to run a very decent race. Has run well in routes, has a good last out speed number, and a couple of good workouts in preparation for this race. Mighty Morris (Hill / Bush) has the top speed number at the distance and will be the speed in this race. He should hold on for a piece of the purse. Let’s play Aqueduct.

$2 SHOW: #5 Vinnie Van Go
$2 SHOW: #4 Whirlwind Poppy
NO 10 CENT Superfecta offered.

Oaklawn Race 8 {1 mile~4 year old Up~Optional Claiming}
This will be a nice group of horses lining up for this race. Sligo (Quinonez / Cart) looks to be the very best of the contestants. The highest speed number at the distance coupled with a 100% in the money record at the distance clearly sets him apart. He will be the part of the speed. Decent fractions should bring him home to victory. Marilyn’s Guy (Riggs / Block) appears to have been prepped to run a good one. Two others that will figure prominently in this race are Win Willy (Berry / Robertson) and Doc’s Friend (Thompson / Jones). Both show good last out speed numbers and have great work tabs for the race. Let’s play Oaklawn.

$2 WIN / SHOW: #7 Sligo Joe
NO 10 CENT Superfecta for this race.


















Last Sunday’s Results

Aqueduct R8. Our pick, Yet Again, finished 6th. Superfecta went 5-2-1-6.
Our bankroll is a paltry $0.20 therefore we will supplement it today with an additional $10.00.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Still More Metrics from 4Q 2009

Two Year Old Horses

There were a number of fabulous races for 2 year olds run last year. We handicapped a total of twenty in this category. Unfortunately, our picks in two of those selected races were scratched. Consequently, we used eighteen for the basis of our statistics. We had a WIN record of 17%. Our ITM (in the money) stat was 50%.

The 10 CENT Superfecta
We did not do so well in this category. The superfecta wager is the most challenging of all the exotic wagers. That is why we recommend a 10 CENT Superfecta. The 10 CENT Superfecta helps keep your bankroll intact. It is difficult to predict the first four finishers in a race, but the reward can be great. Could you imagine how much dough you would burn through if you bet a dollar or two on the superfecta? In this category we wagered a total of $16.70 during the quarter, but did not garner any reward.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Affectionately Aqueduct

Sensational Sunday at Aqueduct.

Aqueduct Race 8 {Afectionately Stakes~1 1/16 mile~3 year old Up~fillies/mares}
This is an extremely competitive race.  All Night Labor (Napravnik / Nunley) and By the Light (Rodriguez / R. Dutrow) look to be the best with solid workouts going into this stakes race.  Yet Again (Bocachica / Grusmark) looks to be positioned for an upset.  A competitive last out speed number coupled with some very fine workouts may put her over the top.  Will be closing fast.  Tidal Dance (Dominguez / Hushion) looks solid with a good last out speed number and three good works.  Pumpkin Shell ( Lopez / Donk) is 100% in the money at this distance as well as at Aqueduct.  She will figure prominently.  Saxet Heights (Luzzi / Runco) is another that is 100% in the money across the board.  Should maintain that record with this race.  Let's play Aqueduct.

$2 SHOW:  #3 Yet Again
10 CENT Superfecta:  #3 Yet Again / #5 Tidal Dance / #2 Pumpkin Shell, #6 Saxet Heights /#7 By the Light, #4 All Night Labor, #2, #6

















Saturday's Results
Santa Anita R7.  Our first pick, Papa Clem, Won (1st) for show money of $2.60. Our second pick, Mythical Power finished 5th.  Superfecta went 4-1-3-2.
Bankroll sits at $2.60.

Saturday, January 16, 2010

San Fernando at Santa Anita

Today we look at a wonderful Grade 2 Stakes race at Santa Anita, the San Fernando.

Santa Anita Race 7 {San Fernando~G2~1 1/16~4 year old~Stakes}
It appears it comes down to two horses for the victory.  Papa Clem (T. Baze / Stute) is 100% in the money at Santa Anita and at the distance.  He has put in five monster workouts leading into this race.  It appears he is approaching top form and should be ready to win this one.  Mythical Power (Rosario / Baffert) looks to be his chief challenger with the highest speed number at the distance and four fabulous peaking workouts.  Both will battle tactically near the front end.  Mr. Hot Stuff (Talamo / Harty) has put in five strong peaking workouts and likes the Santa Anita track. He will be a factor closing swiftly.  Viscount (Gomez / Baffert) and Gallant Son (Solis / Lucarelli) will also be closing strongly.  Viscount shows a decent last out speed number and has put in three terrific workouts.  Gallant Son shows the second highest last out speed number with a superb peaking three workout tab.  Let's play Santa Anita.

$2 SHOW:  #4 Papa Clem
$2 SHOW:  #6 Mythical Power
10 CENT Superfecta:  #4 Papa Clem / #6 Mythical Power / #5 Mr. Hot Stuff / #2 Viscount, #7 Gallant Son
















Friday's Results
Oaklawn R8.  Our first pick, Vertical Vision, finished out of the money in 4th.  Our second pick, Crossfirehurricane, finished a dissappointing 7th (last).  No Superfecta for this race.
Aqueduct R8.  Our pick, Imthequeenofqueens, finished 2nd for $2.90 in show money. Superfecta went 7-8-3-10.
Bankroll drops to $4.20.

Friday, January 15, 2010

Oaklawn Opens an Exciting Meet Today

Today is the opening of the Oaklawn meet.  It promises to be an exciting one with Derby dreams all around.

Oaklawn Race 8 {Dixie Belle~6 furlongs~3 year old~fillies~Stakes}
This will be a nice race in which the fillies get to show whether they can display some promise for the Kentucky Oaks come this Spring.  Two horses stand out here.  Crossfirehurricane (Hamilton / Calhoun) has the top last out speed number with three good workouts in preperation for this race.  Vertical Vision (Mojica / Asmussen) has the top speed numbers across the board, a nice peaking series of workouts, and is 66% in the money at the distance.  Both of these gals will battle for victory.  Shotgun Gulch (Quinonez / Ewing) looks solid with a nice last out speed number and a couple of decent workouts.  Decelerator (Thompson / Lukas) is coming off a route and sports three solid works.  Cosmo Girl (McNeil / Potalino) has put in a couple of tremendous workouts and is coming off a 7 furlong race.  Enticing Girl (Nakatani / Ice) is, well, very enticing with Corey Nakatani in the irons.  While showing low speed numbers, the Tim Ice trained filly, could be the surprise in this race.  Let's give a try at Oaklawn.

$2 SHOW:  #5 Vertical Vision
$2 SHOW:  #1 Crossfirehurricane
10 CENT Superfecta:  #5 Vertical Vision / #1 Crossfirehurricane / #6 Shotgun Gulch / #4 Decelerator, #7 Cosmo Girl, #3 Enticing Girl

Aqueduct Race 8 {1 mile 70 yards~4 year old Up~fillies/mares~NY~Allowance}
A very nice race on a Friday in New York.  Imthequeenofqueens (Dominguez / Parisella) looks to be the very best here.  She has trained well and shows some decent speed numbers across the board.  Should be able to close for the win.  Crafty Shocked (Cohen / Dutrow) shows the absolute best workout tab in preperation for this race.  Will be there at the end also.  Stormy's Smile (Lopez / Calluscio) has the highest speed number over the surface, a nice race progression and two peaking works.  Manhattan Miss (Saez / Contessa) shows solid speed numbers across the board and has worked well towards this race.  Kaffiend (Espinoza / Morrison) will be the speed that may hold on for a piece of the purse. She is moving up in distance with a nice three race progression.  Let's play Aqueduct.

$2 WIN / SHOW:  #8 Imthequeenofqueens
10 CENT Superfecta:  #8 Imthequeenofqueens / #5 Crafty Shocked / #1 Stormy's Smile / #7 Manhattan Miss, #3 Kaffiend.

















Thursday's Results
Gulfstream R8. Our first pick, Ms. Thanksgiving, finished 6th.  Our second pick, Martita Sangrita, finished 3rd for $3.20 in show money.  Superfecta went 1-4-2-7.
Santa Anita R7.  Our pick, Red Alert Day, finished 2nd for $2.60 in show money.  Superfecta went 2-3-6-4.
Bankroll stands at $9.30.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Sun Drenched Horses Today

With a strong afinity towards turf races, we look at a couple Allowance races. One at Gulfstream and one at Santa Anita.

Gulfstream Race 8 {1 1/16 mile~Turf~3 year old~fillies~Allowance}
A very interesting race with several possiblities here.  Ms. Thanksgiving (Castellano / Terranova) holds a bit of tactical speed here which may bring her on to victory.  Martita Sangrita (Lezcano / Matz) will be the chief challenger. She has the highest speed number last out and has three decent workouts in preparation for the race.  Sparky's Dream (Desormeaux / McPeek) looks tough over the surface and will be moving up in distance.  Blasted (Rose / Motion) comes into this race 100% in the money lifetime, but it will be her first race on the turf.  She should not be overlooked as she is trained by one of the top turf trainers, Graham Motion.  Let's give Gulfstream a try.

$2 SHOW:  #12 Ms. Thanksgiving
$2 SHOW: #2 Martita Sangrita
10 CENT Superfecta:  #12 Ms. Thanksgiving / #2 Martita Sangrita / #8 Sparky's Dream / #7 Blasted

Santa Anita Race 7 {1 mile~Turf~4 year old Up~Allowance}
 A highly competitive allowance race in which any of the entrants are capable of pulling off a victory.  A slight edge goes to Red Alert Day(GB) (Talamo / Drysdale). He has a good last out speed number, great race progression and a stellar workout tab.  Additionally, he loves Santa Anita.  Yorktown(FR) (Rosario / Motion) has been well prepped for this race with a couple of solid workouts.  Mozante (Gomez / Mitchell) has the highest speed number at the distance, the highest speed number last out and four solid workouts.  Should provide a strong challenge.  Dakota Phone (Bejarano / Hollendorfer) shows the best group of workouts for this race.  Let's play Santa Anita.

$2 WIN / SHOW:  #3 Red Alert Day (GB)
10 CENT Superfecta:  #3 Red Alert Day (GB) / #1 Yorktown (FR) / #2 Mozante, #6 Dakota Phone / #2, #6
















Last Sunday's (1/10) Results
Our first pick, Mambo Meister, finished 3rd for $2.60 in show money.
Our second pick, Danak (IRE), finished out of the money in 6th.  Superfecta went 13-7-11-4.
Bankroll sits at $11.70.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

More Metrics from 2009

As we break down some more stats from our 2009 Handicapping year, actually quarter year, we did pretty well with our selections.

We handicapped 29 3 year old and Up Graded Stakes races and finished with a 9 (1st)-9 (2nd)-2 (3rd) record.  Looking at these numbers we had a 31% WIN record and were 69% in the money on all the Graded Stakes handicapped.

22 non-graded Stakes races for 3 year old and Up horses were looked at.  We finished with a 8-4-4 record.  We posted a 37% WIN record and were 73% in the money.

With respect to 3 year old and Up Allowance races we finished 6-3-3.  A decent 22% WIN record along with an overall 43% in the money record was posted.

We only handicapped 2 Optional Claimers for 3 year olds and Up.  This produced 1 win and 1 place. Which extrapolated yields a 50% WIN record and 100% in the money.

On the whole we enjoyed some handicapping success. We will need to improve our wagering methods to enjoy greater financial success.  On Wednesdays we will continue to look at our 2009 stats.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Gulfstream Park is the Place to Be

Today there should be sun shining down on Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida.  We will look at the Ft. Lauderdale, hopefully on the Turf.

Gulfstream Race 9 {Ft. Lauderdale~G3~1 1/16 mile~Turf~4 year old Up~Stakes}
This shapes up to be a greatly exciting race.  There are a good number in here that could post the victory.  We like Mambo Meister (Cruz / Gleaves) with a superior work out base, the highest last out speed number, and a nice race progression.  Jet Propulsion (Trujillo / Wolfson) has a high speed number at the distance coupled with two good works. He should be ready.  Danak(IRE) (A. Garcia / McLaughlin) will be making his third start in North America.  He has decent speed numbers and a peaking set of workouts in preparation for this race.  Like his chances over a good to firm turf.  Those that will threaten include Yates Black Cat (Desormeaux / Romans), Vacation (Leparoux / McGaughey), Society's Chairman (J. Lezcano / Attfield), and Wheels Up At Noon (Prado / Pitts). Of the group Yate's Black Cat looks to be fully prepared to run very well, especially with Kent Desormeaux aboard. Let's play Gulfstream.

$2 SHOW:  #11 Mambo Meister
$2 SHOW:  #5 Danak(IRE)
10 CENT Superfecta:  #11 Mambo Meister / #2 Yates Black Cat / #5 Danak(IRE) / #2 Jet Propulsion, #10 Wheels Up At Noon, #6 Vacation, #9 Society's Chairman 

















Saturday' Results
Not so good.
Gulfstream R6. Our pick, Bold Union, finished last (9th).  Superfecta went 9-3-4-7.
Santa Anita R8.  Our pick, Furthest Land, finished last (7th).  Superfecta went 5-6-3-2.
Bankroll has tumbled to $3.50. We will supplement today with an additional $10.00.

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Racing in Warm Sunny Places

This second Saturday of January we look at two Stakes races.  Luckily they are in the warm sunny climates of Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park.

Gulfstream Race 6 {Sugar Swirl~G3~6 furlongs~4 year old Up~fillies/mares~Stakes}
There are five or six in the race that could come away with a victory.  Bold Union (Bravo / Breen) and Thunder's Dove (J. Velazquez / Zito) will be the speed of the group working hard to hold on for the win.  Bold Union seems to have a tad more speed and may pull it off.  She has the highest speed numbers across the board, is 86% in the money had this distance, a good last out speed number and a couple of decent workouts in advance of the race.  Thunder's Dove also has decent speed numbers, solid last out speed number and two strong workouts.  Tar Heel Mom (Lezcano / Hough) will join these two gals near the front end.  Another one that can be considered a specialist at this distance with solid speed numbers across the board.  D'wild Ride (Castellano / Orseno) and Warbling (Leparoux / Kenneally) will also be significant factors in this race. D'wild Ride is 100% in the money at this 6 furlong distance and covered the Gulfstream track with fortitude.  Warbling has only two career races, but won both of them. She has four strong workouts in preparation and will be closing fast.  Let's play Gulfstream.

$2 SHOW:  #1 Bold Union
10 CENT Superfecta:  #1 Bold Union / #2 D'wild Ride / #4 Tar Heel Mom / #8 Thunder's Dove, #3 Warbling

Santa Anita Race 8 {San Pasqual Handicap~G2~1 1/16 mile~4 year old Up}
This race has some top talent going to the gate.  Furthest Land (Gomez / Maker) should win this race.  With solid speed numbers across the board and the best work out tab going in, Furthest Land should be able to find the winners circle.  His top competition will be Bold Chieftan (R. Baze / Morey).  Bold Chieftan is 100% in the money at this distance and has done a nice set of peaking workouts.  He is in great condition and will challenge.  Cherokee Artist (Bejarano / Motion), Now Now Now (Talamo / Biancone), and Neko Bay (Smith / Shirreffs) all have had terrific workouts.  Each has fabulous speed numbers across the board.  It is conceivable that they could also pull off a victory.  Let's play Santa Anita.

$2 WIN / SHOW:  #7 Furthest Land
10 CENT Superfecta:  #7 Furthest Land / #2 Bold Chieftain / #1 Cherokee Artist / #3 Now Now Now, #5 Neko Bay



















Friday's Results
Gulfstream R8. Our pick, Colors Flying, finished 3rd for $4.40 in show money.  Superfecta went 9-6-8-5.
Turfway R10.  Our pick, Sweet Gladys, scratched.  No Superfecta due to scratches.
Bankroll improves to $7.90.
   

Friday, January 8, 2010

Gulfstream and Turfway.

Today we look at Gulfstream and Turfway for a couple of competitive races.

Gulfstream Race 8 {1 mile~4 year old Up~Allowance}
A ten horse field assembles for this exceptionally competitive allowance race.  There are a number here that could win this one.  Nowhere to Hide (Rose / Zito) is a specialist at this distance. He is coming down in distance from his last out in which he achived a decent speed number.  Some quality work outs give him a very slight edge.  All of the horses in this race have had at least 30 days off since their last race.  Jet Set Vinny (Prado / Cambolati) in another specialist at this distance and will be a factor.  Roddickton (Lezcano / Matz) is a lightly raced horse with a good last out speed number and a couple of quality workouts following that effort.  We like Colors Flying (Castellano / McGaughey) for our show strategy.  He is coming down in distance from his last race and has put together the best workout tab.  Battle Plan (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) is a speedster that will be a strong factor in this race.  In preparation for this race he has the second best group of workouts.  Chief Bear (Coa / Baird) looks very solid with the highest last out speed number and a peaking workout tab.  Let's give this Gulfstream race a roll.

$2 SHOW:  #8 Colors Flying
10 CENT Superfecta:  #3 Nowhere to Hide / #5 Roddickton, #6 Jet Set Vinny / #8 Flying Colors, #5, #6 / #9 Battle Plan, #10 Chief Bear, #5, #6

Turfway Race 10 {6 1/2 furlongs~4 year old Up~fillies/mares~Optional Claiming}
A good little race with a small, but competitive field.  Sweet Gladys (Pompell / Denzik) loves the surface and the all weather track. She is coming down in distance and shows a bullet workout in advance of this race.  Silver Time (McKee / Barkley) will vie for the victory.  She shows the highest speed numbers across the board.  Also, she has done well over the distance and at Turfway.  Willow Creek (Gonzalez / Casey) has put together the best set of workouts and will be closing in an effort to win.  Bamboo (Creed / Sims) will also be closing for a piece of the purse.  Let's play Turfway.

$2 SHOW:  #1 Sweet Gladys
10 CENT Superfecta:  #1 Sweet Gladys / #2 Silver Time / #3 Willow Creek / #5 Bamboo
















Thursday's Results
Aqueduct R8.  Our W/S pick, Jess Not Jesse, finished 4th.  NO 10 cent superfecta offered.
Gulfstream R7.  Our first S pick, Classical Fashion, finished 7th and our second S pick, Flaming Rose, finished 8th.  Superfecta went 9-2-12-5.
Our bankroll falls to $5.70.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Metrics, Aqueduct and Gulfstream

We have put together some metrics for our performance over the last quarter when this blog was started.  Any good handicapper will keep track of their selections and the results. Making adjustments along the way and determining strengths, as well as weaknesses.  Here are a few basic performance metrics:

Overall Performance  107 races  24 wins (27%)  58 itm (55%)
Turf Sprints  33% itm (in the money)
Turf Routes  71% itm

As we review this we are going to make some adjusments in our wagering strategy.  You will recall that we had deployed a "rolling show parlay" strategy, but our results were as volatile as the stock market.  We will maintain the same budget allowance of no more than $5.00 per race.  However, we will now look at WIN/SHOW wagers on certain races, while staying on budget.
We will post more metrics on Wednesdays as we cull through the data.

Today we look at allowance races at Aqueduct and Gulfstream.

Aqueduct Race 8 {6 furlongs~4 year old Up~Allowance}
Looking at the past performances for this race, there are a few horses in here that could win.  We like the Linda Rice trained, Jess Not Jesse (Napravnik / Rice).  A decent last out speed number couple with the best workout tab of the group, puts this guy in the driver seat.  Montecore (Cohen / Klesaris) has the second highest speed number over the surface and has done well at the distance.  No workouts within the last thirty days gives us pause.  Ramblinggamblinman (Jara / R. Dutrow) shows a solid speed number at the distance and his workout tab is very strong.  He will be a factor.  Have You Ever (Luzzi / Jacobson) will be the speed of the group and may hold on for a small piece of the purse.  Buddy's Song (Dominguez / Levine) looks good from a jockey-trainer perspective and his workouts are solid. He will be in the race to the finish.  Let's play Aqueduct.

$2 WIN / SHOW:  #4 Jess Not Jesse
There is NO 10 CENT Superfecta for this race.

Gulfstream Race 7 {1 1/16 mile~Turf~4 year old Up~fillies/mares~Allowance}
A full field of twelve assembles for this race with and additional four "also eligible" horses sitting on the bench waiting to get into the race should any scratches occur.  The group of four waiting to gain entry look awfully good and well prepared for this race.  This solidly competitive field is a tough one to handicap.  Classical Fashion (C. Velasquez / Contessa) looks to have a very slight edge.  She shares the highest speed number at the distance with Obsequious (Maragh / Cray) and Blue Hill Bay (Saez / Everett).  Where Classical Fashion stands out is with a respectable last out speed number and a strong group of workouts.  Toocleverforwords (Castro / McGaughey) looks very solid with a good last out speed number and a good workout tab.  Speak Easy Gal (Castellano / Contessa) looks like she will do well with a strong last out speed number, solid race progression, and decent couple of workouts.  With Kent Desormeaux in the irons, Flaming Rose (Desormeaux / Coatrieux) cannot be ignored.  Desormeaux, in our opinion, is the best turf jockey in the country.  Flaming Rose has a nice race progression and is shifting from the all weather surface to turf. Will be a factor.  Girl Can Rock (Marquez / Orseno) will be moving up in distance, but seems to be well prepared for this race with a nice race progression and a good workout tab.  Let's make a great play at Gulfstream.

$2 SHOW:  #3 Classical Fashion
$2 SHOW:  #4 Flaming Rose
10 CENT Superfecta:  #3 Classical Fashion / #5 Toocleverforwords / #2 Speak Easy Gal, #4 Flaming Rose / #8 Girl Can Rock, #2, #4

Last Sunday's Results
Gulfstream R8. Our pick, Le Grand Cru, finished out of the money in 6th.  Superfecta went 2-1-9-7.
Not a very good start for 2010, our bankroll has fallen to $4.10.  We will supplement it with an additional $10.00 to support our new wagering strategy.

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Gulfstream Park: A Gem Near the Ocean

Beautiful Gulfstream Park opens today.  All of the horses have added another year. The Derby is not far away.  Life is good.

Gulfstream Park Race 8 {Hal Hope~G3~1 mile~4 year old Up~Stakes }
It will be 63 degrees and sunny in Hallandale Beach, Florida today.  Which will make the opening of Gulfstream Park all that much more inviting.  This race is Quality Road's (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) to lose.  This guy has the highest speed number across the board and has been 100% in the money.  He should win this one notwithstanding any gate problems he has, as he did in the Breeders Cup.  In fact there is a strong chance that trainer, Todd Pletcher, grabs the exacta with Harlem Rocker (Coa / Pletcher) who like Quality Road, has had some monster workouts leading up to this race.  Add to that, he has the second best speed numbers on the surface and at the distance.  Oh, and Harlem Rocker is also 100% in the money at the distance.  In light of these two power house Pletcher entrants possibly running one and two, we have to look elsewhere for some value.  We like Le Grand Cru (Lezcano / Jerkens) in this spot for some show money.  He has the second highest speed number last out and three solid workouts.  Le Grand Cru is also undefeated at the distance and 100% in the money on the Gulfstream Track.  Love his chances at getting a nice chunk of the purse.  Of the rest of the horses in this quality field, Helsinki (Leparoux / R. Dutrow) looks the best prepared to make an impact.  Some solid workouts and decent speed numbers figure to give him an opportunity for a small piece of the purse pie.  He will be closing late.  Lets play Gulfstream.

$2 SHOW:  #5 Le Grand Cru
10 CENT Superfecta:  #2 Quality Road / #7 Harlem Rocker / #5 Le Grand Cru / #3 Helsinki

















Saturday's Results
Aqueduct R8.  Our pick, Ibboyee, finished 4th. No superfecta wager as there was one scratch.
Santa Anita R8.  Our pick, Diamondrella, finished 5th. No superfecta wager as one of our choices scratched.
Bankroll dips to $6.20 as the New Year begins.

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