The 2026 Kentucky Derby stacks up as one of the best in recent memory. There are six horses with a real chance to wear the roses. Looking at the top six it is difficult to determine which one will pull off the victory. Structuring your wagers will be key to bring home the dough. Here we go...
Churchill Downs Race 12 {Kentucky Derby 152~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}
Twenty talented three-year-olds will go to the gate in the most glorious race in North America.
Past Performances used: DRF Classic.
There is enough speed in this race to produce a sizzling pace on the front-end. Five horses have earned triple-digit Beyer speed figs. The others are closing in on that benchmark. All will be going this distance for the first time. It should be noted, however, that six horses have gone the distance of 1 3/16 mile which the past performances consider as running at this distance. Three horse have posted wins over the Churchill oval. There is a lot of speed to the outside posts which could make trouble for the runners on the inside. It should be a fantastic race.
#1 Renegade (I. Ortiz / Pletcher) will have a lot of work to do coming from the one post. Arguably he has the best jockey in North America to pilot him to victory. You can rest assured, Irad has studied past Derby's and possibly the 2007 KD where Street Sense came from the back of the pack weaving around horses to beat Hard Spun and Curlin. [[Side Note: What a great group of sires that race produced]]. By the way he comes out of a Curlin mare. Renegade has put together a three-race progression of speed figs with more upside potential. He comes in with the fourth highest last out speed number and two modest workouts. Look for him to run down the pack as they come into the stretch. A son of Into Mischief, he is 100% in the money. This colt should surprise his doubters.
$2 WIN / $3 PLACE / $5 SHOW.
#6 Commandment (L. Saez / B. Cox) will pose a mighty challenge as the most consistent horse in the field. He comes in with the second highest (three-way tie) last out speed number and three vigorous workouts. This guy should find himself amidst the tracker pack seeking position ready to strike in the stretch. He has a win over the Churchill track. Another son of Into Mischief he holds an 80%-win rate from five starts.
$2 PLACE / $3 SHOW.
#7 Danon Bourbon (Hishimura / Manabu) could surprise having won all of his races in Japan with flourish. This guy is bred for the distance. Son of Maxfield whose sire is the aforementioned Street Sense, out of a Tapit mare Wild Ridge. His Time Form speed rating have increased with every race. Expect him to be in the Tracker pack. He has put in one sound workout over the Churchill ground. This guy has a 100%-win rate from three starts.
$2 SHOW.
Other WIN Candidates.
#15 Emerging Market (Prat / C. Brown) will contend in his third career start. He is another that should emerge from the tracker pack heading into the stretch. This guy holds the second highest average final furlong. He comes in with the fifth highest last out speed number and four strong workouts. A son of Candy Ride [ARG], he has an 100% win-rate from two starts.
#18 Further Ado (J. Velazquez / B. Cox) comes in with the highest last out speed number and two dynamite workouts. He can be expected to track the pace closely and explode into the stretch with the fourth highest average final furlong. His superb finish in the Bluegrass at Keeneland makes him a win candidate. A son of Gun Runner he is 83% in the money from six starts.
#14 Potente (JJ Hernandez / Baffert) comes in from Southern California with a three-race speed fig progression making him ready to take another step forward. This guy should track the pace closely ready to romp in the stretch. This lad has a strong last out speed fig and the best workout tab of the group that includes three powerful peaking works. Another son of Into Mischief, he is 100% in the money from three starts.
Riding up for a Piece of the Purse
#19 Golden Tempo (J. Ortiz / DeVaux) will come charging from the back of the pack as the speedsters begin to fade. He has a beautiful four race speed figure progression which allows him to make another improvement. This colt has cobbled together three super fine workouts in preparation. A son of Curlin, he is 100% in the money from four starts.
#12 Chief Wallabee (J. Alvarado / W. Mott) is the wise guy horse looking for a peak performance. He comes to the race with the third highest last out speed number and three hearty workouts. Look for him to be in the tracker pack seeking position. A son of Constitution, he is 100% in the money from three starts.
#9 The Puma (Castellano / G. Delgado) shares the second highest last out speed number and two robust workouts. He is another that will battle in the tracker pack. Expect this colt to improve after his second-place finish in the Florida Derby. A son of Essential Quality, he is 100% in the money from four starts.
Let's go full spectrum with our Derby wagers.
$1 Exacta Wheel ($8.00)
#1 Renegade // #6 Commandment, #7 Danon Bourbon, #15 Emerging Market, #18 Further Ado, #14 Potente, #19 Golden Tempo, #12 Chief Wallabee, #9 The Puma.
Reverse the Wheel ($8.00)
#6, #7, #15, #18, #14, #9, #12, #9 /// #1 Renegade.
50 CENT Trifecta ($14.00)
#1 Renegade, #7 Danon Bourbon / #1, #7, #6 Commandment / #1, #7, #6, #15, #18, #14, #19, #12, #9.
$1 Superfecta ($48.00)
#1, #7 / #1, #7, #6 / #1, #7, #6, #15 / #1, #7, #6, #15, #18, #14, #19, #12, #9.
$1 Jackpot Eight [Octafecta] ($2)
Just for Fun, like a lottery ticket.
#1 / #7 / #6 / #15 / #18 / #14 / #19 / #12, #9.
Best of luck with all your KD 152 wagers!!!
