Arkansas Derby Day

 An exciting card in Hot Springs, Arkansas brings us the Arkansas Derby.

Oaklawn Park Race 13 {Arkansas Derby~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A reduced field of eight will go to the gate in this KD 152 points race.

Past Performances:  DRF Formulator.

There is plenty of speed and forwardly placed runners to keep the pace fluid. Speed numbers are fairly close. All but one will be stretching out to this distance. Only two will try the Oaklawn track for the first time. It should be a fantastic race on a great day of racing.

#9 Litmus Test (Arrieta / Baffert) comes in with the fourth highest last out speed number and two solid workouts. He loves the dirt and track. Look for him to be forwardly placed ready for battle in the stretch. A son of Nyquist, he is 66% in the money from six starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#6 Renegde (I. Ortiz / Pletcher) will challenge with the highest last out speed number and three hearty peaking workouts. This guy is the only one in the field that has competed at this distance. He should track and close into a strong pace. A son of Into Mischief, he is 100% in the money from four starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#2 Silent Tactic (C. Torres / M. Casse) has improved his speed figs in his last three starts scoring the second highest last out speed number. One efficient workout aids in his preparation. He is another that will track and close into a swift pace. A son of Tacitus, he is 100% in the money from five starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#5 Taptastic (E. Asmussen / S. Asmussen) could surprise in his second career start. This colt earned a good speed figure winning his maiden race, albeit on wet dirt. He has put in two robust workouts in the last thirty days. Look for him to be part of the tracker pack. A son of Tapit, he looks to maintain that 100%-win rate.

#3 Blackout Time (B. Hernandez / McPeek) come to the race with a decent speed number last out and two dynamite workouts. He should be part of the pack running on the front-end. A son of Not This Time, he is 75% in the money from four starts.

#4 Bricklin (J. Torres / Brisset) has hit the board in his last two races. Couple that with an excellent workout tab of three works. He holds a win over the Oaklawn track. This guy has the tactical speed to adapt to the pace. Another son of Nyquist, he is 60% in the money from five starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#9 Litmus Test  ///  #6 Renegade,  #2 Silent Tactic,  #5 Taptastic,  #3 Blackout Time,  #4 Bricklin.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#6,  #2,  #5,  #3,  #4  ///  #9 Litmus Test.

As we get closer to that First Saturday in May, best of luck with all your Stakes Saturday wagers as you build a bankroll for KD 152.

THURSDAY Strategy Session: Race Selection

 Race Selection for the Superfecta Player

To any 10 CENT Superfecta player race selection is critical to powering up your bankroll. What constitutes a great wagering race? One that could bring forward a hefty payout. Here are the criteria we look at for solid race selection.

Field Size

Ten or more wagering interests will bring about a juicy payout.

Conditions

In order of potential payouts and handicapping difficulty you might order your races like this:

Maiden Claiming

Maiden Special Weight.

Claiming.

Allowance.

Stakes.

Graded Stakes.

Look over the results data of your favored track and determine the average payout for each of the classes above for a given meet. Target those that have significant payouts.

Track

Yes, the premiere tracks have larger handle, and subsequently bigger pools for the Superfecta. Top tracks like Santa Anita, Gulfstream, Belmont, Churchill, Woodbine Keeneland, and Saratoga. Major tracks also generate decent sized pools as well. Don't discount the smaller tracks like Delta Downs, Turf Paradise, and Will Rogers. Sometimes the racing secretaries will put together sizable, competitive fields.

Trainer Diversity

How many times have you examined a large field ready to play only to discover that a few trainers have multiple entrants in the race. These tend to be low payout affairs. Look for a race in which each individual entrant has a distinct trainer assigned.

Morning Line

Look for a morning line favorite of 5/2 or greater. These races are usually very competitive making for beefy payouts when the above criteria are met.

Variant Target Considerations

• Turf Sprints seem to provide nice 10 CENT Superfecta returns no matter the racetrack. Every horse has to break well to have a fine race. With a bad break it is difficult for a horse to recover making it a fabulous handicapping opportunity.
• Lucky Last. The ultimate race of the day usually has a good size field. These can be wonderful races to handicap for a decent score.
• Follow the Penta. For a number of tracks a high five carryover will attract good field sizes and decent money poured into the pools. Usually, the racing secretary is quite adept at putting together a fantastic race.

It is very important for the 10 CENT (20 CENT in Canada or Hawthorne) Superfecta player to be selective in the races they play. It provides the potential for large payouts and preservation of bankroll.

May all your Superfecta tickets cash in Q2 2026.

Louisiana Derby Day

 A great day down in New Orleans for Louisiana Derby Day!!!

Fair Grounds Racecourse Race 12 {Louisiana Derby~G2~1 1/16 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A good group of nine will go to the gate in this annual Kentucky Derby prep.

Past Performances used:  DRF Formulator.

This entire group will be stretching out to the distance. There is sufficient speed to maintain an honest pace. Speed figs are very close making this one any horse's race. Three have run over the Fair Grounds track. All look to improve in this event. It should be a fine race to wager and watch.

#3 Chip Honcho (L. Saez / S. Asmussen) could seek to wire this field by controlling the pace. He comes to the race with the second highest last out speed number and four strong peaking workouts. This guy enjoys the Fair Grounds track. A son of Connect, he is 80% in the money from five starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#5 Golden Tempo (J. Ortiz / DeVaux) holds the fourth highest last out speed number working on a three-race speed fig progression. Add in three dynamite peaking workouts and this guy will fire well. Look for him to track and close into a swift pace. A son of Curlin, he is 100% in the money from three starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#9 Emerging Market (Prat / C. Brown) will be making his second start after scoring the highest last out speed number. He has posted four solid workouts in preparation. This guy will position nicely within the tracker pack. A son of Candy Ride [ARG], he has that 100% win rate from his only start.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#7 Blacksmith (Geroux / Baffert) comes in from Santa Anita with a decent last out speed number and two power workouts. He should track the pace closely. This lad has it the board in his last three starts. A son of Liam's Map, he is 80% in the money from five starts.

#1 Pavlovian (Maldonado / O'Neill) exits a win at Sunland producing the third highest last out speed number. He has put in three stout workouts in the last thirty days. This colt should track the pace closely. A son of Pavel, he is 66% in the money from nine starts.

#8 Easterly (Zayas / B. Cox) is another that should track the pace closely. It will be his third career start. He has cobbled four sound workouts in preparation. This guy comes up from Gulfstream Park. A son of Uncle Mo, he is 100% in the money from two starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#3 Chip Honcho  ///  #5 Golden Tempo,  #9 Emerging Market,  #7 Blacksmith,  #1 Pavlovian,  #8 Easterly.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#5,  #9,  #7,  #1,  #8  ///  #3 Chip Honcho.

Best of luck with all your Stakes Saturday plays!!!

 

Superfecta Sunday Stakes at Santa Anita

 We take in a superb Turf route going downhill at beautiful Santa Anita.

Santa Anita Park Race 7 {Santa Ana Stakes~G3~1 1/4 mile~downhill TURF~4 year-old Up~Fillies/Mares~Graded Stakes}

A great group of gals will run downhill in this featured graded stakes race.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

Only one of these gals will be running this distance for the first time. Two will try the downhill course for the first time. There is a modest of amount of speed to keep the pace rolling. Speed numbers are fairly close with only one not notching a triple-digit speed fig among their last three races. It should be a great race on a beautiful day of racing.

#10 Mrs. Astor (Fresu / Thomas) is the deserved favorite seeking her third win in a row. She has scored three triple-digit speed figs in a row. This gal comes to the race with the highest last out speed number at a longer route and three diligent workouts. Look for her to be among a large tracker pack. She loves the Turf, distance, and course. A daughter of Lookin At Lucky, she is 77% in the money from twenty-two starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#2 Queen Sienna [ARG] (V. Espinoza / Polanco) will be trying the downhill course for the first time. She has successfully raced at the distance in Peru. This gal will be part of the tracker pack. She comes to the race with the third highest last out speed number and four outstanding workouts. A daughter of Fortify, she is 70% in the money from seventeen starts.

#8 Take a Breath [GB] (jaramillo / Glatt) should be tracking and closing into the pace. She enters the race with the fourth highest last out speed number and three supreme workouts. This gal is likely to take another step forward. A daughter of Bated Breath [GB], she is 41% in the money from twelve starts.

#9 Resolve (Berrios / Powell) is among the top in the money performers over the TURF. She will be part of the tracker pack. This girl has hit the board in her last two starts. One solid workout will add to her armaments. A daughter of Midnight Lute, she is 56% in the money from sixteen starts.

Other Wagering Interests

#1 Ima Joker (Demuro / O'Neill) comes into the race with the second highest last out speed number at a longer route and three strong peaking workouts. She has a win at this distance. This gal should track the pace closely. A daughter of Practical Joke, she is 47% in the money from twenty-three starts.

#5 Public Assembly (Geroux / D'Amato) is another with a win at this distance in her only start at it. She will be tracking the pace closely right behind the leader. Last out she produced a decent speed number and has cobbled together three hearty workouts. A daughter of More Than Ready, she is 46% in the money from thirteen starts.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#10 Mrs. Astor  +  #2 Queen Sienna [ARG]  +  #8 Take a Breath [GB]  +  #9 Resolve.

10 CENT Superfecta Straight ($5.60)

#10 Mrs. Astor  /  #2 Queen Sienna [ARG],  #8 Take a Breath [GB]  /  #2,  #8,  #9 Resolve,  #1 Ima Joker,  #5 Public Assembly  /  ALL.

Best of luck with all your Superfecta Sunday tickets!!!

Virginia Derby Day

 Off we go to Virginia to look in on another Kentucky Derby points race.

Colonial Downs Race 9 {Virginia Derby~1 1/8 mile~3 year-old~Stakes}

A talented field of ten will enter the gate as some these Derby prep races get longer.

Past Performances used:  DRF Formulator.

Only one of these entrants have gone this distance. All we be racing over the the Colonial track for the first time. Only one will be testing the dirt for the first time. There is sufficient speed to produce a fast pace. Speed figs are fairly close as these lads continue to improve on their racing journey. It should be another exciting prep race on the road to the Kentucky Derby.

#1 Buetane (Prat / Baffert) is the deserved favorite with the second highest (tie) last out speed number and three strong peaking workouts. This lad comes in from Oaklawn Park and should track the pace closely. He is expected to take another step forward. A son of Tiz the Law, he is 100% in the money from four starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#5 High Camp (J. Velazquez / Walden) will be stretching out from a seven-furlong contest down at Gulfstream Park. Three superb workouts add to his arsenal. He is another that should track the pace closely. A son of Instagrad, he is 100% in the money from two starts. 

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#7 Incredibolt (J. Torres / R. Mott) drops down from a grade three contest at Gulfstream. Look for him to be part of the tracker pack setting up for a gallant stretch run. This guy has put in four consistent workouts in the last thirty days. A son of Bolt d'Oro, he has a 50%-win rate from four starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#6 Lockstocknpharoah (E. Morelos / Drury) will be making the surface switch from Synthetic to dirt but should handle it well. He should show speed. This guy will be looking for his third win in a row. A son of American Pharoah, he holds a win rate of 100% from two starts.

#2 Grittiness (Maragh / Pletcher) is the only entrant that has gone this distance. He should be part of the tracker pack. This guy achieved an o.k. last out speed number while racing up at Aqueduct. Three hearty workouts add to his cause. A son of Curlin, he is 40% in the money from five starts.

#8 Confessional (Leparoux / B. Cox) comes in from Tampa Bay Downs where he raced at a slightly less route distance. He has put in three strong workouts readying for this contest. Expect him to track the pace closely. A son of Essential Quality, he is 66% in the money from three starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#1 Buetane  ///  #5 High Camp,  #7 Incredibolt,  #6 Lockstocknpharoah,  #2 Grittiness,  #8 Confessional.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#5,  #7,  #6,  #2,  #8  ///  #1 Buetane.

Best of luck with all of your Stakes Saturday plays!!! 

 

Happy Tampa Bay Derby Day

 As we stride closer to the first Saturday in May, we take a look at another prep race for the big dance.

Tampa Bay Downs Race 11 {Tampa Bay Derby~G3~1 1/16 mile~3 year-olds~Graded Stakes}

A nice field of nine will go to the gate in this Kentucky Derby points race.

Past Performances used:  DRF Formulator.

A very competitive field will battle for the points. Speed figs are fairly close with each of these showing different levels of improvement. Two maidens have made the field. Only three have run over the Tampa Bay dirt. One will be cutting back in distance and three will be stretching out to the distance. All are lightly raced including three that will be making their second start. It should be a smashing race on the road to the Kentucky Derby.

#9 Canaletto (Prat / C. Brown) will be making his second start after winning his maiden by eight lengths. He earned the second highest last out speed number and has put in four superb workouts. This guy will show speed on the stretch out. A son of Into Mischief, that win gives him a 100% win rate.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#6 Further Ado (I. Ortiz / B. Cox) will be seeking his third win in a row. He holds the highest speed number at this distance and has produced four strong peaking workouts. This lad should track the pace closely. He has won both of his races at this distance. A son of Gun Runner, he is 75% in the money from four starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#5 Powershift (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) will be making his second start with the highest last out speed number and two solid workouts. This guy should run right off the pace. His only race is over the Tampa dirt. He will be seeking to break his maiden. A son of Constitution, he is 100% in the money from one start.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#8 The Puma (Castellano / Delgado) comes in with the fourth highest last out speed number and two sound workouts. He should settle nicely within the tracker pack. This colt will be making his third start of the form cycle. He has finished will over the Tampa dirt. A son of Essential Quality, he is 100% in the money from two starts.

#1 Redland Rebels (J. Alvarado / Biancone) comes in with the third highest last out speed number at this distance over the Turf. Add a couple strengthening workouts to his cause. This guy is speedster and will battle on the front-end. A son of Uncle Chuck, he is 66% in the money from three starts.

#2 Talkin (Rosario / Gargan) will cut back to this distance for his first start at this distance. He will be part of the tracker group. This colt comes down from Aqueduct. He showed good speed figs in his first two starts. A son of Good Magic, he is 66% in the money from three starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#9 Canaletto  ///  #6 Further Ado,  #5 Powershift,  #8 The Puma,  #1 Redland Rebels,  #2 Talkin.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#6 Further Ado,  #5 Powershift,  #8 The Puma,  #1 Redland Rbels,  #2 Talkin  ///  #9 Canaletto.

Best of luck with all your Stakes Saturday picks!!!

Superfecta Sunday in Hot Springs, Arkansas

 We look in on another Kentucky Derby prep race on this Superfecta Sunday.

Oaklawn Park Race 11 {Rebel Stakes~G2~1 1/16 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A field of nine will go to the gate in this featured race on an excellent card.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

A talented field of Triple-crown nominees appear to be well prepped for this contest. There is enough speed to produce a steady pace. Speed numbers are very close. Three will run over the Oaklawn track for the first time and one will stretch out to the distance. It should be a fantastic race on an exciting day of racing.

#2 Litmus Test (Prat / Baffert) comes in with the second highest last out speed number and three speedy workouts. It will be his first try over the Oaklawn track. He should track the pace closely. A son of Nyquist, he holds a 60% in the money record from five starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#4 Blackout Time (B. Hernandez / McPeek) is the deserved favorite with the fourth highest last out speed number and three dynamite workouts. He will try the Oaklawn track for the first time. This guy should be part of the speed scenario. He loves the dirt and distance. A son of Not This Time, he is 100% in the money from three starts.

#7 Silent Tactic (C. Torres / M. Casse) comes in with the highest last out speed number and one quick workout. This guy loves the dirt, distance, and track. Look for him to be part of the tracker pack. A son of Tacitus, he is 100% in the money from four starts.

#10 Soldier N Diplomat (J. Ortiz / S. Asmussen) holds the third highest (tie) last out speed number and two solid peaking workouts. He is another lover of the dirt, distance, and track. This lad has the tactical speed to adjust to the pace. A son of Army Mule, he is 80% in the money from five starts.

Other Wagering Interests

#6 Strategic Risk (Castellano / M. Casse) should track the pace closely. He comes to the race with a decent last out speed number and one hearty workout. He has won two out of four at this very distance. A son of Noble Bird, he is 57% in the money from seven starts.

#3 Class President (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) will be stretching out to the distance. He will be making his third career start after achieving progressively improving speed figs. This colt should be right on the pace. A son of Uncle Mo, he is 100% in the money from two starts.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#2 Litmus Test  +  #4 Blackout Time  +  #7 Silent Tactic  +  #10 Soldier N Diplomat.

10 CENT Superfecta Straight ($4.80)

#2 Litmus Test  /  #4 Blackout Time,  #7 Silent Tactic  /  #4,  #7,  #10 Soldier N Diplomat,  #6 Strategic Risk,  #3 Class President.

Best of luck with all of your Superfecta Sunday plays!!!