Let's Go Long on the Dirt at Oaklawn Park

 Congratulations to jockey, Brian Hernandez, trainer, Kenny McPeek, and the connections of Mystik Dan on the winning of the 150th Kentucky Derby.

On this Superfecta Sunday we take a look at a "marathon" race, the lucky last of the Oaklawn Park card as they close a fantastic 2023-2024 racing season.

Oaklawn Park Race 11 {1 3/4 mile~3 year-old Up~Starter Allowance}

A nice field of thirteen will go to the gate in this last race of the Oaklawn season.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

There is sufficient speed to keep the pace rolling. Speed figs for the majority of the field are fairly close. Only four horses have gone this distance; the remaining will stretch out to this distance. All but one are used to racing over the Oaklawn track. It should be a fine race to cap off the Oaklawn Park season.

#7 Polterer (Arrieta / Compton) is the deserved favorite with the second highest last out speed number. He finished fourth at this distance in his only try. Look for him to be part of the pace scenario. This lad loves the dirt and the Oaklawn track. A son of Ghostzapper, he is 61% in the money from twenty-six starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#9 Indian Gulch (De la Cruz / Van Berg) will present a serious challenge with the highest last out speed number and two superb workouts. He will close into the pace. This guy also holds the second highest speed number at this distance having run it twice. A son of Liaison, he is 56% in the money from fifty-three starts.

#8 Canadian Pharoah (P. Lopez / D. Ward) should contend with the highest speed number at the distance having hit the board once in his two starts at same. This guy will track and close into the stretch. A son of American Pharoah, he is 27% in the money from thirty-three starts.

#4 Royal Act (K. Asmussen /  S. Asmussen) will stretch out to this distance with three good last out speed numbers and one sound workout. He does like the dirt and has 33% win rate over the Oaklawn track. Another son of American Pharoah, he is 34% in the money from twenty-three starts.

Other Wagering Interests

#11 Rungius (Vazquez / Levine) finished third in his last in a race close to this distance running a very good speed number. Two solid workouts add to his prep. This guy has the tactical speed to stay the pace. A son of Liam's Map, he is 77% in the money from thirteen starts.

#1 Big Paper (Bejarano / Van Berg) will track the pace closely and strike in the stretch. He holds the third highest last out speed number and two sound workouts. This gelding will stretch out to the distance. A son of Empire Maker, he is 64% in the money from twenty-five starts.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#7 Polterer  +  #9 Indian Gulch  +  #8 Canadian Pharoah  +  #4 Royal Act.

10 CENT Superfecta Straight ($8.00)

#7 Polterer  /  $9 Indian Gulch,  #8 Canadian Pharoah  /  #9, #8, #4 Royal Act,  #11Rungius,  #1 Big Paper  /  ALL.

May all your Superfecta Sunday tickets cash!!!

  

Kentucky Derby 150

 Today is the greatest race in North America, the Kentucky Derby. After months of prep races and weeks of final preparation we have a full field of twenty going to the gate.

Churchill Downs Race 12 {Kentucky Derby~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

The field is set with twenty in the gate.

Past performances used:  DRF Classic.

The track came up sloppy yesterday on Oaks Day. It should be drying out today as there may be little or no rain according to the forecast. Though this dry-out could create a deep and tiring track. Consequently, the workout tab becomes a key performance indicator. The KPI's are important for KD 150.

Best Workouts:

#6 Just Steel.  #4 Catching Freedom.  #7 Honor Marie.  #17 Fierceness.

Beyer Speed Figure progressions (race to race)

#12 Track Phantom (7).  #19 Resilience (6).  #4 Catching Freedom (5).  #7 Honor Marie (5).  #11 Forever Young (5).  #18 Stronghold (5).  #2 Sierra Leone (4).  #6 Just Steel (4).  #16 Grand Mo the First (4).  

Highest Beyer Speed Figures.

#17 Fierceness 110.

#3 Mystic Dan 101 (in the slop at Oaklawn).

#2 Sierra Leone 98.

#4 Catching Freedom 97.

#7 Honor Marie and #8 Just a Touch 96.

#6 Just Steel 95.

Others with competitive speed figures that could put them in the race:

#12 Track Phantom 94.  #1 Dornoch,  #11 Forever Young (converted Time Form figure), and  #14 Endlessly.  #5 Catalytic and #19 Resilience 90.

Race Flow

There is significant speed in the race that could result in a super speedy pace. Looking at yesterdays Aleysheba-G2 (CD Race7) the Japanese may have tipped their hand as the #8 runner T.O. Saint Denis [JPN] took off like a bandit and held on to finish second. Could be a foreshadowing of this running of KD 150.

Analysis

It is difficult to get around the two favorites as both are primed and ready to win. It comes down to how they get a trip. Both may meet in the stretch run and battle to the wire. Based in part on the KPI's mentioned above will key both of these lads in our Exactas and create a hedge exacta should both falter on their way to Derby glory.

Exacta Wheel ($8.00) Number 1.

#17 Fierceness  //  #2 Sierra Leone,  #4 Catching Freedom,  #6 Just Steel,  #7 Honor Marie,  #8 Just a Touch,  #11 Forever Young, #15 Domestic Product,  #19 Resilience.

Exacta Wheel ($8.00) Number 2.

#2 Sierra Leone  //  #4,  #6,  #7,  #8,  #11,  #15,  #17,  #19.

$1 Exacta Box ($12.00) Should the favorites falter. A hedge bet.

#4 Catching Freedom  +  #7 Honor Marie  +  #11 forever Yound  +  #15 Domestic Product.

Best of luck to you in all your wagers on todays Great Kentucky Derby card.

Stakes Saturday under the lights beneath the Twinspires

 KD 150 is a week away with the post-position draw this evening. Today we look at a terrific sprint race on this Stakes Saturday on the great Kentucky dirt.

Churchill Downs Race 9 {Roxelana Overnight Stakes~6 Furlongs~4 year-old Up~Fillies/Mares~Stakes}

A reduced field of nine will go to the gate in this sprint Stakes.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

Plenty of speed will drive the pace in this race. Speed numbers are fairly close. High quality connections fill this field. Only one has yet to race over the Churchill track. Also, there is only one horse that will undertake this distance for the first time. It should be a fine race under the Twinspires lights.

#3 Speedy Traveler (J. Torres / Bauer) has won all three of her races at this distance. She will show speed from the gate opening. This filly holds the highest last out speed number and four super strong peaking workouts. A daughter of First Samurai, she has a 100% win rate from three starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#6 Dazzling Blue (Geroux / B. Cox) should also show speed from the gate. This gal comes off a layoff with four hearty workouts. She has an affinity for the surface, distance, and track. A daughter of Into Mischief, she is 100% in the money from six starts. 

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#2 Last Leaf (L. Saez / Kenneally) shows prgressively improving speed figs in her last three races. This gal should track the pace and take advantage of a sizzling one. She holds the second highest last out speed number at a bit longer sprint and two solid workouts. A daughter of Not This Time, she is 69% in the money from twenty-nine starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#10 Current Climate (Gaffalione / Foster) has the tactical speed to adapt to the pace. A daughter of Raison d'Etat, she is 62% in the money from twenty-four starts.

#5 Zeitlos (Rosario / Asmussen) should track the pace closely and launch into the stretch. A daughter of Curlin, she is 81% in the money from eleven starts.

#8 Condensation (J. Ortiz / Hartman) is another that will track the pace closely. She holds the highest speed number over the surface, distanc, and track. A daughter of Frosted, she is 62% in the money from sixteen starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#3 Speedy Traveler  //  #6 Dazzling Blue,  #2 Last Leaf,  #10 Current Climate,  #5 Zeitles,  #8 Condensation.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#6,  #2,  #10,  #5,  #8  //  #3 Speedy Traveler.

Good luck with all your Churchill Downs wagers as we head into Kentucky Derby week!!!

Superfecta Sunday in South Florida

 We look at some Turf maidens in sunny South Florida for today's Superfecta Sunday play.

Gulfstream Park Race10 {1 1/16 mile~TURF~3 year-old~Maiden Claiming}

A grand field of eleven will hit the green in this lucky last on the card.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

There is enough speed to keep an honest pace rolling. Speed numbers are fairly close. Only three have not raced over the Gulfstream course. Also three will go this distance for the first time. It should be a fantastic race to cap off a high quality horse racing weekend.

#3 Whiting Field (Bravo / Crichton) should be the controlling speed with the highest last out speed number and one efficient workout. He loves the Turf, distance, and course. This son of Jack Milton, is 66% in the money from six starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#9 Lomachenko (C. Landeros / Beckman) has cobbled three nicely improving speed numbers in a row. He holds the second highest last out speed number and four hearty workouts. This lad comes in from Turfway Park having raced over the nice Tapeta track there. A son of Mendelssohn, he is 25% in the money from four starts.

#2 Mo Caliente (Panici / Weaver) could go off as the favorite having hit the board in both of his starts at this distance. He has been gelded since his last start. This guy should track the pace and spurt into the stretch. A son of Uncle Mo, he is 40% in the money from five starts.

#10 Grand Tower (P. Lopez / Barboza) is another making the switch from Tapeta to Turf, only he comes off the Gulfstream synthetic. He can be expected to stick close to the leaders and launch into the stretch. This colt holds three solid workouts. A son of Take Charge Indy, he is 40% in the money from five starts.

Other Wagering Interests

#8 Rapscallion (S. Leon / Cordero) will stretch out to this distance with the fourth highest last out speed number and two sound Turf workouts. He should track the pace closely. A son of Runhappy, he is 60% in the money from five starts.

#5 Sweet Travels (Zayas / Trombetta) looks to improve with a couple of decent last out speed numbers and one robust workout. He has hit the board at this distance and drops in from a Maiden Special Weight. A son of Tourist, he is 28% in the money from seven starts.

10 CENT Superfecta Box $2.40)

#3 Whiting Field  +  #9 Lomachenko  +  #2 Mo Caliente  +  #10 Grand Tower.

10 CENT Superfecta Straight ($6.40)

#3 Whiting Field  /  #9 Lomachenko,  #2 Mo Caliente  / #9,  #2,  #10 Grand Tower,  #8 Rapscallion,  #5 Sweet Travels  /  ALL.

Best of luck with all of your Superfecta Sunday wagers!!!

Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland

 We spend out Superfecta Sunday focusing in on a Turf distance race in Lexington, Kentucky.

Keeneland Race 8 {Elkhorn Stakes~G2~1 1/2 mile~TURF~4 year-old Up~Graded Stakes}

With two scratches there is a solid field of nine that will hit the grass in this annual event.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

This group has relatively close speed numbers. There is sufficient speed to produce a fast pace. Only three have yet to race over the Keeneland course. All but one have gone this distance. It should be a fantastic race.

#4 Bold Act [IRE] (Dettori / Appleby) comes in from UAE with two wins in a row seeking to add a third. He loves the Turf, distance, and course. The deserved favorite with two peaking workouts over Turf. A son of New Approach [IRE], he has a 84% in the money record from thirteen starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#11 Silver Knott [GB] (Prat / Appleby) will stretch out with strong Jockey / Trainer stats. Loves the Turf and the course. Son of Lope de Vega [IRE], is 75% in the money from twelve starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#10 Missed the Cut (I. Ortiz / Sadler) holds the highest last out speed number and two endurance workouts. This guy will seek his third win in a row. A son of Quality Road, he is 60% in the money from fifteen starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#1 The Grey Wizard [IRE] (L. Saez / Motion) is100% in the money at this distance. Son of Caravaggio, is 58% itm. Four powerful workouts add to his cause.

#5 Dynadrive (R. Gutierrez / Maker) has three strong workouts and the third highest last out speed number. Son of Temple City, is 50% itm from 34 starts.

#3 Highland Chief [IRE] (J. Velazquez / Motion) has four works of increasing distance over the Turf showing considerable prep for this race. Son of Gleneagles [IRE], is 50% in the money from sixteen starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#4 Bold Act [IRE]  //  #11 Silver Knott [GB],  #10 Missed the Cut,  #1 The Grey Wizard [IRE],  #5 Dynadrive,  #3 Highland Chief [IRE].

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#11,  #10,  #1,  #5,  #3  //  #4 Bold Act [IRE].

Best of luck with all your Stakes Saturday plays!!!

Long on the Turf for Superfecta Sunday

We stay on at Keeneland for a competitive classic distance route on the Turf.

Keeneland Race 5 {1 1/2 mile~TURF~4 year-old Up~Allowance}

A splendid field of eleven will go to the grass in this mid-card feature. It comes up a little light on speed which should create a magnificent quickening coming into the stretch. Speed figs are very close with most of the field stretching out to this distance for the first time. It should be a fine wagering race for the Superfecta player.

#5 Headline News (J. Ortiz / Toner) comes in from Gulfstream with the highest last out speed number and two high octane workouts. He is the deserved favorite. This guy loves the Turf and will try the Keeneland course for the first time. He should track and strike in the stretch. A son of Curlin, he is 50% in the money from six starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#11 Verbal (Gaffalione / B. Walsh) will challenge as he stretches out to this distance. He holds the fourth highest (tie) last out speed number and two sound workouts. This gelding should track the pace closely seeking first jump on the trackers. A son of Flintshire [GB], he is 50% in the money from ten starts.

#1 Siz Minus (I. Ortiz / Pletcher) is another serious challenger with the third highest last out speed number and one true workout. He loves the Turf and distance. It will be his second effort over the Keeneland course. This gelding will track and close well. A son of English Channel, he is 47% in the money from nineteen starts.

#7 Utah Beach (Rosario / Correas) is another contender with a win at this distance. He has hit the board in his last three producing good speed figs. Four hearty workouts add well to his preparation. Look for him to track the pace closely. Another son of English Channel, he is 100% in the money from six starts.

Other Wagering Interests

#8 Hidden Stash (M. Garcia / Oliver) has doubled up his speed figs in his last two and has cobbled three consistent works together. Son of Constitution, is 63% in the money from nineteen starts.

#3 Dai Vernon (Prat / Mott) will stretch out with a strong workout tab of three works. This son of Good Magic will stretch out with a win rate of 40% from five starts.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#5 Headline News  +  #11 Verbal  +  #1 Six Minus  +  #7 Utah Beach.

10 CENT Superfecta Straight ($6.40)

#5 Headline News  /  #11 Verbal,  #1 Six Minus  /  #11,  #1,  #7 Utah Beach,  #8 Hidden Stash,  #3 Dai Vernon  /  ALL.

May you cash all of your Superfecta Sunday wagers!!!

The Last Kentucky Derby Prep Race

 On this Stakes Saturday we look at the last Kentucky Derby prep race on the points list. These horses will need 40 + points to get a gate in KD150. This race only offers 20-10-6-4-2 for first through fifth place respectively. It should be a fine race.

Keeneland Race 10 {Lexington Stakes~G3~1 1/16 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A reduced field of nine will go to the gate in this graded stakes race. 

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

This might be a wide-open race where any of these fellas could win. Only one horse will be assured a gate in KD150 should he win and that is #5 Hades. Two other horses will be on the bubble with a win, #8 Encino and #9 Liberal Arts. There is plenty of speed to keep the pace rolling. Speed numbers are very close. Only three in the field have competed over the Keeneland oval. It should be a great betting race.

#2 The Wine Steward (L. Saez / Maker) is coming off a layoff with four power workouts in the last thirty days. He holds the third highest last out speed number. This guy should track the pace and strike in the stretch. He has hit the board at this distance in one try. A son of Vino Rosso, he is 100% in the money from four starts. Derby points: 5.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#8 Encino (Geroux / B. Cox) has posted two victories at this distance. This colt holds the highest last out speed number and four hearty peaking workouts. He has speed but is not a need to lead type. A son of Nyquist, he is 100% in the money from three starts. Derby points: 20.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#4 Footprint (B. Hernandez / McPeek) has improved his speed numbers in his last three. He holds the fourth highest last out speed number and two strong peaking workouts. This lad should track the pace closely. A son of Dialed In, he is 72% in the money from seven starts. Derby points: 2

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#10 Lucky Jeremy (Corrales / Morey) comes in from Turfway Park to try the Keeneland track for the first time. He raced last out at a longer route and has put in two strong workouts. He should be forwardly placed. A son of Lookin at Lucky, he is 60% in the money from five starts. Derby points: 16.

#5 Hades (J. Ortiz / Orseno) has a win at this distance. He comes off a longer route and has two robust peaking workouts. He should show speed. It will be his first start over the Keeneland track. A son of Awesome Slew, he holds a 75% win rate from four starts. Derby points; 30.

#9 Liberal Arts (I. Ortiz / Medina) holds the second highest last out speed number and two sturdy workouts. He will try the Keeneland track for this first time, but has hit the board in both of his starts at the distance. Look for him to track and close into a solid pace. A son of Arrogate, he is 85% in the money from seven starts. Derby points: 19.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#2 The Wine Steward  //  #8 Encino,  #4 Footprint,  #10 Lucky Jeremy,  #5 Hades,  #9 Liberal Arts.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#8,  #4,  #10,  #5,  #9  //  #2 The Wine Steward.

Best of luck to all your Keenleand plays on this Stakes Saturday!!!