Kentucky Derby 150

 Today is the greatest race in North America, the Kentucky Derby. After months of prep races and weeks of final preparation we have a full field of twenty going to the gate.

Churchill Downs Race 12 {Kentucky Derby~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

The field is set with twenty in the gate.

Past performances used:  DRF Classic.

The track came up sloppy yesterday on Oaks Day. It should be drying out today as there may be little or no rain according to the forecast. Though this dry-out could create a deep and tiring track. Consequently, the workout tab becomes a key performance indicator. The KPI's are important for KD 150.

Best Workouts:

#6 Just Steel.  #4 Catching Freedom.  #7 Honor Marie.  #17 Fierceness.

Beyer Speed Figure progressions (race to race)

#12 Track Phantom (7).  #19 Resilience (6).  #4 Catching Freedom (5).  #7 Honor Marie (5).  #11 Forever Young (5).  #18 Stronghold (5).  #2 Sierra Leone (4).  #6 Just Steel (4).  #16 Grand Mo the First (4).  

Highest Beyer Speed Figures.

#17 Fierceness 110.

#3 Mystic Dan 101 (in the slop at Oaklawn).

#2 Sierra Leone 98.

#4 Catching Freedom 97.

#7 Honor Marie and #8 Just a Touch 96.

#6 Just Steel 95.

Others with competitive speed figures that could put them in the race:

#12 Track Phantom 94.  #1 Dornoch,  #11 Forever Young (converted Time Form figure), and  #14 Endlessly.  #5 Catalytic and #19 Resilience 90.

Race Flow

There is significant speed in the race that could result in a super speedy pace. Looking at yesterdays Aleysheba-G2 (CD Race7) the Japanese may have tipped their hand as the #8 runner T.O. Saint Denis [JPN] took off like a bandit and held on to finish second. Could be a foreshadowing of this running of KD 150.

Analysis

It is difficult to get around the two favorites as both are primed and ready to win. It comes down to how they get a trip. Both may meet in the stretch run and battle to the wire. Based in part on the KPI's mentioned above will key both of these lads in our Exactas and create a hedge exacta should both falter on their way to Derby glory.

Exacta Wheel ($8.00) Number 1.

#17 Fierceness  //  #2 Sierra Leone,  #4 Catching Freedom,  #6 Just Steel,  #7 Honor Marie,  #8 Just a Touch,  #11 Forever Young, #15 Domestic Product,  #19 Resilience.

Exacta Wheel ($8.00) Number 2.

#2 Sierra Leone  //  #4,  #6,  #7,  #8,  #11,  #15,  #17,  #19.

$1 Exacta Box ($12.00) Should the favorites falter. A hedge bet.

#4 Catching Freedom  +  #7 Honor Marie  +  #11 forever Yound  +  #15 Domestic Product.

Best of luck to you in all your wagers on todays Great Kentucky Derby card.