The moment we have all been waiting for has arrived. The first Saturday in May (5/1/2010), the greatest two minutes in sports, The Kentucky Derby 136. The road to the roses has been long for the twenty horses that will go to the gate later this afternoon. Only one will be triumphant and earn his or her (yes, there is a filly in the race this year) way into the history books.
Today's KD136 will be a wide open race with nearly every single horse in here having a chance to gamely catch a victory. The weather will be a factor. As of this morning thunderstorms are rolling through Louisville, Kentucky, USA and are expected to continue through noon where there is to be a break in the action. From Noon on it is expected to be cloudy and in the mid 70 degrees. Perfect weather for a horse race. Expect the track conditions to be from sloppy to good. What would normally be a "closers" race now changes that dynamic and could put the speedsters or forwardly placed horses in the drivers seat. With a field of twenty horses anything can happen.
Churchill Downs Race 11 {The 136th Kentucky Derby~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year old~Stakes}
Even with the weather factored in, this is an exceptionally tough race to call. There are only seven horses that have been battle tested over the slop or in one case soft turf. An additional edge has to go to these, but that alone doesn't make for a complete handicapping analysis. Those that will vie for contention are:
Lookin At Lucky (Gomez / Baffert) looks to be the very best, but coming from out of post #1 will be a challenge for him and jockey, Garrett Gomez. They will need the perfect trip. You know Gomez is in the zone. He wants to add the Kentucky Derby to his impressive resume. He is mind-mapping the race right now. Lucky will have to break very well and will have to work hard from the start in an attempt to not get boxed in. He has raced well with a troubled trip, but decent last out speed number and three powerful, peaking workouts. He is 100% in the money over the course of his eight races. Lookin At Lucky should be the horse to beat.
American Lion (Flores / Harty) is the default play. If Lucky is unable to overcome the race challenges of post #1, American Lion will take full advantage of it. Many a handicapper are calling him a speed horse, he can be rated and will be forwardly placed. We do not believe he has peaked yet and what better place to peak than in the world's greatest race? American Lion shares (with three others) the highest last out speed number and has strung together three fabulous work outs. He is our co-favorite.
Conveyance (M. Garcia / Baffert) looks absolutely fantastic. He has a decent last out speed number and the most stunning workout tab with three very fast workouts over the Churchill track. He will be among the speed in the race and there is a ton of it. Yes, five speedsters and five pressers. Talk about what could be a wickedly fast pace. We expect Conveyance to be in it until the end. Battle tested over the slop with a six furlong victory at Saratoga.
Devil May Care (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) the filly looks awfully tough. With the injury to overwhelming pre-race favorite, Eskendereya, trainer, Todd Pletcher chose to put this filly in the field. He is one of the saavyist horsemen in the world and to put this filly in the race is a shrewd move. She also has the highest last out speed number and perhaps the best workout tab of the bunch. She has strung together four healthy, peaking workouts. Should not be dismissed merely because she has come to run with the lads.
Backtalk (Mena / Amoss) will be the surprise. He has not yet peaked as this will be the third race in his form cycle. While his speed numbers at first glance may seem somewhat lacking he has the pedigree to go this distance. Backtalk has been in the money in his two tries and Churchill and has produced two fine workouts. He is battle tested over the slop with a route victory at Delta Downs.
Many of us will be placing hunch wagers as part of the fun of the greatest horse race in the world. In fact, one horse player we talked to was going to place an Irish Exacta (#10 Paddy O'Prado / #17 Dublin) which is entirely conceivable given this Derby field. For our purposes the play will be:
$2 WIN / PLACE / SHOW: #1 Lookin At Lucky
$2 WIN / SHOW: #7 American Lion
$2 SHOW: #12 Conveyance
$2 SHOW: #11 Devil May Care
$1 Superfecta: #1 Lookin At Lucky, #7 American Lion / #12 Conveyance / #11 Devil May Care / #18 Backtalk.
Good Luck with all your picks on Derby Day!!!
Friday's Results
Churchill R11. Our first pick, Blind Luck, won (1st) for win money of $4.60. Our second pick, Amen Hallelujah, finished 6th. Our third pick, Tidal Pool, finished 3rd for show money of $5.00. No 10 CENT Superfecta, but it went 5-11-8-6.
Bankroll inches up to $68.50.
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