Saturday, May 7, 2011

It's Derby Time

The 137th running of the Kentucky Derby will go off in approximately six hours.  With one scratch the field will consist of nineteen still developing three year-olds.  There is no clear favorite, but many to consider.  The trainers have done all they can to prepare their contenders for this race, hopefully bringing them into peak for.  Now they must place them in the hands of the jockey's who must wade the horses through a thick field of equine athletes.  This years Derby is a enormous handicapping challenge.  But try we must.

Churchill Downs Race 11 {Kentucky Derby 137~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year old~Stakes}
A very nice group of nineteen talented and improving horses will go to the post.  Not one have them have raced at this distance.  All have made their case to be in this race by virtue of their graded earnings.  In terms of speed figures all are with in quarter seconds of each other making this the most challenging field in this century.  Here is notable nine to consider.

#11 Master of Hounds (Gomez / O'Brien) is the Irish invader looking to sneak a KD win for the Euros.  He is coming back to his birthplace, Kentucky, after racing overseas.  He is the only one in the field to have raced 110 yards short of the Derby distance.  He ran well in that race in Dubai, posting a second place finish.  He has raced at Churchill Downs, albeit on the Turf.  Jockey, Garrett Gomez would like nothing better to add a Kentucky Derby win to his sound Hall of Fame resume.  Aidan O'Brien is one of the best conditioners in the world.  He will have his young charge ready.
$2 WIN / $4 SHOW.

#1 Archarcharch (Court / Fires) This could be the year for jockey, Jon Court.  It will be his first Derby mount in an already quite successful career.  Trainer William "Jinks" Fires has managed this horses racing career magnificently.  He shows the highest (tie) last out speed number, a four race progression, and three strong, peaking workouts.  He will be tracking the field.
$2 SHOW.

#19 Nehro (Nakatani / Asmussen) will challenge also with the highest last out speed number, a four race progression, and three solid, peaking workouts.  Trainer, Steve Asmussen, makes it back to the Derby with a top contender.  Jockey, Corey Nakatani, will place this guy in a good closing position.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#13 Mucho Macho Man (Maragh / Ritvo) is tough enough capture the win making it the first for a female trainer in one Kathy Ritvo.  Up and coming jockey, Rajiv Maragh, will guide this guy.  3M has the highest speed number over a fast dirt surface, a couple of decent last out speed numbers, and four stamina producing, peaking workouts.  He should be forwardly placed.

#17 Soldat (A. Garcia / McLaughlin) could win if the track turns up sloppy come race time.  He holds the highest overall speed number, a triple digit, in the mud.  He has put in a couple of robust workouts in preparation for this race.

#4 Stay Thirsty (Dominguez / Pletcher) is another contender with a decent speed number over the surface and three hearty workouts.  Any Todd Pletcher trained horse has to be considered.  Teaming up with jockey Ramon Dominguez makes this guy more appealing.

#8 Dialed In (Leparoux / Zito) will be closing swiftly from the clouds if a good pace sets up.  He has a couple of decent, improving last out speed numbers, a two race progression, and two workmanlike workouts.  Trainer, Nick Zito, knows how to peak his horses for the main event.  Jockey Julien Leparoux had an outstanding Kentucky Oaks day yesterday which will make this guy dangerous.

#5 Decisive Moment (Clark / Arias) is a much improving colt who appears well prepped to have a big race with two improving last out speed numbers, a two race progression, and two athletic workouts.  He could be the biggest surprise.

#7 Pants On Fire (Napravnik / Breen) could do well with a modest pace allowing him to get first jump on the field as they head into the stretch.  He holds the fourth highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and three well-built, peaking workouts.  Should jockey, Rosie Napravnik, get him to the wire first, it will be the first Kentucky Derby win for a female jockey.  He could make history.

$1 Superfecta (There is no 10 CENT Superfecta Offered, but it's the Derby, Let's play) 

#11 Master of Hounds / #1 Archarcharch / #19 Nehro / #13 Mucho Macho Man.

















Friday's Results
Churchill Downs R11.  Kentucky Oaks.  Our first pick, Summer Soiree, finished 10th.  Our second pick, Daisy Devine, finished 7th.  Our third pick, Zazu, finished 3rd for show money of $4.00.  Superfecta went 12-13-6-1.
Bankroll dips to $7.20.  We will supplement for today's KD 137 with an extra $10.00.

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