Thursday Strategy Session
KD 146 Wagering Strategy
Despite the lack of fans in this most unusual year, the 2020 Kentucky Derby promises to be a fantastic race to wager and watch. How do we approach it on a "blue collar budget". No need to go crazy like our sports betting brethren, firing a buck ($100), a nickel ($500), or a dime ($1000) at will. Let's go into it modestly, making intelligent picks with a budget of only sixty bucks total. Consider a full spectrum wager strategy for that magnificent 14th race on the card.
Many professional handicapper's have nearly anointed Tiz the Law as the eventual winner. Yes, he is the best of this year's three year-old crop. And should win if he runs his race. Consequently, he should be the key horse in most exotic wagers. Keep in mind he will be seeking his fifth straight win against stiff competition. It is wise to HEDGE a little as you develop your tickets.
Exacta
Set the ticket up with Tiz as the key and then throw in a mid-priced, mid-pack runner, a couple of solid challengers, and a couple of long shot closers. It might look like this.
Tz // A, B, C, D, E
Don't forget to reverse it, putting the others on to and Tiz in the second position. The first-rate handicapper Jerry Jackowitz (jerryjpowerpage.com) has long advised this and has done very well. Both of the above plays will cost $5.00 each.
Trifecta
The trifecta will be a 50 CENT base wager. There are several different ways to construct your tickets given your handicapping prowess. Here are our suggestions:
Tz // A, B, // A, B C, D, E, F, G, H
This straightaway wager will cost you a cool $7.00. In addition budget for four Trifecta Box wagers which will cost you $3.00 each for a total of $12.00. Set up a couple of boxes with Tiz the Law and maybe a long shot closer box and one that allows for a stumble by the overwhelming favorite. Have fun with this wager.
Superfecta
Regular readers of this blog know this is our favorite wager and we will do a straight away wager listing those three horses we feel will finish one, two , three, and cost $1.50.
Tz // A // B // ALL
Our Lambrakis method ticket might look like this:
Tz // A, B // A, B, C, D, E // A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H
Note that we will use all the horses in our Notable Nine blog post. This wager will come in at a cost of $4.80.
We will also throw down our much used wager, the 10 CENT Superfecta Box, including Tiz while looking at a few different angles. They might be:
Best Workouts among the entrants. This is somewhat subjective. We will try to determine which have gave a good account of themselves on the track in the past thirty days leading up to KD 146.
Trainer / Jockey combo. This merely represents the win percentage win these trainers and jockey's team up. We just have to determine which horses have a chance. Here is the way the top percentages look by program number.:
18--15--16--9--17--5--1
Top Speed Number given Last Three races: 17--16--18--2
Dollars won per Race: 17--18--4--16. Just divide the horses overall winnings by the number of races he has run.
Long Shot Closers. Look at the card and see which closers you deem have an excellent chance and throw in a mid-pack off the pace type into your box. This is what we call our Giacomo Play, named after the famed 2005 Kentucky Derby winner. Should the pace collapse it could be the closers and off the pace types that pick up the pieces.
Super High-Five (pentafecta)
If it is on the KD-146 menu, let's play it. After all it is the Derby. We will roll it like this:
Tz // A // B // C, D // C, D, E, F, G, H
At a cost of $10, this could offer a fantastic pay-out if it cashes.
While this year's Kentucky Derby may not have the substantial handle that normal years have with 150,000 fans under the Twin Spires, it should have some juicy pay outs. Best of Luck to you and may the odds be with you.
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