Sunday, May 20, 2018

Santa Anita Superfecta Sunday

We take a look at the maidens on this Superfecta Sunday at the "Great Race Place".

Santa Anita Park Race 7 {6 Furlongs~3 year-old~Fillies~Maiden Claiming}

A vibrant field of eleven will saunter to the gate in this Maiden race. There may be enough speed to keep an honest pace on the front end. Speed numbers for those that have a race or two under their saddle are fairly close. There are three first time starters in the field. It should be a challenging group to lasso a winning 10 CENT Superfecta box ticket, but that is what we must try to do.

#3 Naughty Sophie (Prat / Miller) might have a slight edge as she makes her second start. She holds the highest last out speed number at a slightly longer sprint and has put in two solid works. She should be forwardly placed ready to strike. She is our Bronze Horseshoe selection.
$2 SHOW.

#4 Tengs Rhythm (Desormeaux / Mullins) will challenge with the third highest last out speed number at a half a furlong longer distance and three sharp peaking workouts. This gal has hit the board in all three of her career starts including one at this distance. She should be tracking the pace.

#9 Baby Brown (Maldonado / Morey) should contend with the second highest last out speed number and two hearty workouts. She stretches out by a furlong and should enjoy a trip near the front end. This gal hit the board in her first career start.

#10 Much too Much (Ceballos / Machowsky) is a first time starter who looks primed and ready to go at first asking. A daughter of Colonel John, she has put in four superb peaking workouts prepping for her debut. Her trainer has strong stats with first timers.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#3 Naughty Sopie  +  #4 Tengs Rhythm  +  #9 Baby Brown  +  #10 Much too Much.




Stakes Saturday Results 
Pimlico R13.  143rd PREAKNESS--G1.  Our first pick, Justify, won (1st) for win money of $1.40.  Our second pick, Good Magic, finished 4th.  Our third pick, Quip, finished 8th (last).
Finishing numbers were thus:  7-8-6-5-2.
Bankroll gets clobbered, dropping to 238.00.

Saturday, May 19, 2018

Preakness 2018

Stakes Saturday and the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

Pimlico Race 13 {Preakness Stakes~G1~1 3/16 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A good group of eight will load into the gate on an incredibly sloppy track. The mudders will have their day frolicking in the soup.  Justify is the over all favorite and will be extremely hard to beat. There is plenty of speed to keep the pace moving. Speed numbers are fairly close with the top two Justify and Good Magic holding sway. It should be a terrific running of the Preakness.

#7 Justify (Smith / Baffert) coming off a thrilling Kentucky Derby win, this guy is set-up brilliantly to capture the second jewel of the Triple Crown. With the highest last out speed number and two strong workouts, he should be able to strut into the winners circle. A son of the late great Scat Daddy, he should stay very close to the pace in the early going and then make his move. We will key him in the exotics and place only a token win wager.
$1 WIN.

#5 Good Magic (J. Ortiz / C. Brown) should give a good fight for the win with the second highest last out speed number, a three race progression, and two solid works. A son of Curlin whose progeny have an affinity for the mud, he should put forth a solid effort while tracking the pace closely.
$1 PLACE  /  $2 SHOW.

#1 Quip (Geroux / Brissett) should be gunning for the champs with plenty of rest after his 2nd place effort in the Arkansas Derby. He shares the third highest last out speed number and has put in two sound workouts prepping for the big race. This son of Distorted Humor should be another that sits in right behind the speed. He should enjoy the additional distance.
$1 SHOW.

#2 Lone Sailor (I. Ortiz / Amoss) should contend with a couple of very good last out speed numbers and two robust, peaking workouts. This son of Majestic Warrior should enjoy the slop as he guns the engines heading into the turn with a supreme closing kick. He is one of four exiting the Kentucky Derby.

#6 Tenfold (Santana / Asmussen) is a new shooter who just missed capturing a gate in KD144. He shares the third highest last out speed number. a two race progression, and three significant peaking workouts. A son of Curlin, he should be forwardly placed.

The Exotic Plays

Exacta Wheel  #7 Justify  /  #5 Good Magic, #1 Quip,  #2 Lone Sailor, #6 Tenfold.

Trifecta  #7 Justify  /  #5 Good Magic, #1 Quip  /  #2 Lone Sailor, #6 Tenfold.

Superfecta #7 Justify  /  #5 Good Magic  /  #1 Quip, #2 Lone Sailor,  #6 Tenfold  /  ALL.



Last Superfecta Sunday (5/13) Reults
Santa Anita R7.  Allowance Optional Claiming.  We misfired on our 10 CENT Superfecta play capturing only one of the four required for the win. Superfecta went 8-5-3-4.
Our Bronze Horseshoe runner, Twentytentyvision, finished 4th.
Bankroll dips to $249.10.


Sunday, May 13, 2018

To the Turf for Superfecta Sunday

On this Superfecta Sunday we take in a Turf race in Southern California.

Santa Anita Park Race 7 {1 1/8 mile~TURF~3 year-old Up~Allowance Optional Claiming}

A nice group of eight will head to the grass in this highly competitive allowance feature. There is some speed to keep the pace rolling. Speed numbers are fairly close. It could be anyone's race. Our task is to weave together a winning 10 CENT Superfecta box ticket.

#4 TwentyTwenty Vision (T. Baze / Sadler) might have the edge with the second highest (tie) last out speed number, a five race progression, and three strong workouts. This guy is 73% in the money from twenty-three starts. A son of Pollard's Vision, he should be closing gallantly into the pace.
$2 SHOW.

#1 Bird is the Word (Bejarano / Almeida) should contend with the third highest (tie) last out speed number and four superb peaking workouts. This lad comes out of a grade three where he faced tougher. A son of Birdstone, this distance should be in his wheelhouse.

#7 Lifeline (Prat / Mandella) should challenge with a couple of good last out speed numbers and four stout peaking workouts. He should track the pace and strike in the stretch. A son of Scat Daddy, he relishes the turf and distance.

#9 Oscar Dominguez [IRE] (Desormeaux / Carava) should be in the mix with the highest last out speed number, a four race progression, and two sound workouts. This guy is another closer looking for pace. A son of Zoffany [IRE], he coming out of a longer route race.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#4 TwentyTwenty Vision  +  #1 Bird Is The Word  +  #7 Lifeline  +  #Oscar Dominguez [IRE].



Stakes Saturday Results
Belmont Park R11.  Man O War--G1.  Our first pick, Hi Happy, won (1st) for win money of $2.45, place money of $3.20, and show money of $3.45.  Our second pick, One Go All Go, finished 3rd for show money of $3.60.  Our third pick, Sadler's Joy finished 2nd for show money of $1.30.
Superfecta went 7-2-9-6.
Bankroll gets a little nudge up to $253.50.


Saturday, May 12, 2018

Stakes Saturday at Belmont

As we enter the full force of the Spring season we turn to the Turf for some great racing action. On this Stakes Saturday we take in a classic Turf event at lovely Belmont Park.

Belmont Park Race 11 {Man O War~G1~1 3/8 mile~TURF~4 year-old Up~Graded Stakes}

A reduced field of eight will hit the Turf in this annual classic. There is a sprinkling of speed to keep the pace going. Speed numbers are all fairly close among this group. Two millionaires enter the fray. It should be one of the most exciting Turf races on the day.

#7 Hi Happy [ARG] (L. Saez / Pletcher) comes into the race with the highest last out speed number, a five race progression , and four strong workouts. He has not yet covered this distance, but did win his last at a mile and a half.  This lad is 75% in the money from twelve starts including seven winning runs. A son of Pure Prize, he should be forwardly placed ready to strike.
$1 WIN  /  $2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#9 One Go All Go (C. Landeros  / Dickey) holds the second highest last out speed number, a four race progression, and two stout workouts. He'll be looking to wire this field from the get go. A son of Fairbanks his last was a win at Keeneland.
$1 PLACE  /  $2 SHOW.

#2 Sadler's Joy (Leparoux / Albertrani) looks to close down this field with the right pace set-up. He has produced the fourth highest last out speed number and three robust workouts. A son of Kitten's Joy, he shares the highest speed number at the distance.
$1 SHOW.

#6 Call Provision (J. Ortiz / C. Brown) is a specialist at this distance having hit the board all five times he has run it. This guy holds the third highest last out speed number at a longer slightly longer route and two solid workouts. A son of Lemon Drop Kid, he should take up a nice tracking position and move smoothly into the stretch.

10 CENT Superfecta

#7 Hi Happy [ARG]  /  #9 One Go All Go  /  #2 Sadler's Joy, #6 Call Provision  /  ALL.




Furlong Friday Results
Arlington International R1.  Our top choice, Baby Do It, was scratched thereby scuttling all our plays.
Bankroll remains the same at $250.00


Friday, May 11, 2018

Furlong Friday at Arlington

For this Furlong Friday we take in the first race at beautiful Arlington International.

Arlington International Race 1 {7 Furlongs~3 year-old Up~Fillies/Mares~Maiden Claiming}

A fascinating field of eight will strut to the gate in this low level maiden event. It comes up short on speed. As a consequence it should be a battle coming into the stretch run. All but one in here are dropping from saltier competition. Speed numbers are all over the board with this bunch as many have had numerous chances to break their maiden. Should be an interesting contest to kick off the Friday card.

#5 Baby Do It (O. Hernandez / Catalano) could show some improvement while meeting a little softer competition from her first two career starts. She produced ok speed numbers in her two starts and has put in two solid works. She should enjoy the polytrack taking up a sweet tracking position.
$2 WIN  /  $3 SHOW.

#1 La Flor (Murrill / Mordenti) should be a contender with the highest last out speed number at a Turf route, a two race progression, and one hearty workout. She will be making her fourteenth effort trying to break her maiden, but appears to be heading in the right direction.

#8 Jami Racer (Emigh / McKeever) will be making her thirteenth effort to break the maiden. She holds the third highest last out speed number while running a Turf route and has put in one superb workout. She should track and close gamely with a decent pace set-up.

#7 Hoosensation (Felix / Hughes) could be part of the pace scenario if sent. She shares the second highest last out speed number and has put together a two race progression. This gal will be attempting to break her maiden for the tenth time, last hitting the board at Fairmount Park in Southern Illinois.

10 CENT Superfecta

#5 Baby Do It  /  #1 La Flor  /  #8 Jami River,   #7 Hoosensation  /  ALL




Last Superfecta Sunday (5/6) Results
Santa Anita R8.  Allowance Optional Claming.  We just missed on our 10 CENT Superfecta box play wagering three of the four required to cash. Superfecta went 1-6-8-4.
Our Bronze Horseshoe runner, Siberian Iris [IRE] finished 3rd for show money of $2.80.
Bankroll dips to an even $250.00
 

Sunday, May 6, 2018

Superfecta Sunday at Santa Anita

Congratulations to the Justify and his connections on winning Kentucky Derby 144.

On this Superfecta Sunday we check in on a Southern California Turf race that should be wildly contentious.

Santa Anita Park Race 8 {1 mile~TURF~3 year-old Up~Allowance Optional Claiming}

A great group of eight will hit the green in this allowance race. There is enough speed to carry a quality pace forward. Speed numbers are fairly close making it a wonderfully competitive event. Our task is to string together a winning 10 CENT Superfecta box ticket.

#1 Achira (Smith / Shirreffs) is the one to beat with the highest last out speed number, a five race progression, and three stout workouts. He comes off a longer route and possesses some tactical speed to blend in with the front running crew and take off in the stretch. This daughter of English Channel is 100% in the money from five career starts.

#3 Spy Ring [IRE] (Talamo / Cassidy) should be forwardly placed after an extended layoff. She shares the highest speed number at the distance and has put in four high octane workouts prepping for her race return. A daughter of Bushranger [IRE] she loves the Santa Anita Turf.

#8 Siberian Iris [IRE] (Prat / Mandella) is knocking on the door to victory placing in her last two races. She holds the fourth highest last out speed number and has put in four superb peaking workouts. This gal loves the surface and distance. A daughter of Excelebration [IRE] she should be tracking and closing excellently. She is our Bronze Horseshoe selection.
$2 SHOW.

#4 Speakers (Van Dyke / Gallagher) should contend with the second highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and two hearty workouts. She too enjoys the surface and distance. Expect a fierce closing effort from this daughter of Unusual Heat.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#1 Achira  +  #3 Spy Ring [IRE]  +  #8 Siberian Iris [IRE]  +  #4 Speakers.




Stakes Saturday Results
Churchill Downs R12.  KENTUCKY DERBY 144.  Our first pick, Good Magic, finished 2nd for place money of $13.80 and show money of $16.50.  Our second pick, Mendelssohn, finished 20th (last).  Our third pick, Audible, finished 3rd for show money of $5.80.

The top five finishers were 7-6-5-15-10.

Thank goodness we made the "saver" Exacta Wheel with #7 Justify and our top three picks earning $34.80 bringing us close to eradicating our exotic wager losses.
Bankroll gets bumped to $251.60.


Saturday, May 5, 2018

KENTUCKY DERBY 2018

This year's edition of the greatest two minutes in sports, Kentucky Derby 144, contains a deeply stacked field. This talented field will be heard about in the years ahead right into the breeding shed. A top flight group of twenty will enter the gate late this afternoon to the cheers of a capacity crowd.

Churchill Downs Race 12 {KENTUCKY DERBY~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

What a supreme field for this years run for the roses. Four millionaires are represented. There is plentiful speed to maintain a very fast pace which could aid those coming off the pace is evident. More likely those that keep close to the pace without doing them in will be aided. Speed numbers are fairly close with the exception of Morning Line favorite, #7 Justify.  As of this writing, he is the second favorite in the wagering across the pond at 9-2. The favorite there is of course, the boys from Ballydoyle entrant #14 Mendelssohn at 4-1. Both very fair and playable odds. We believe that the race will be between the two champs #6 Good Magic and the aforementioned Mendelssohn. Here are our picks for KD144.

#6 Good Magic (J. Ortiz / C. Brown) is ready to run the race of his career. The champ (BC-juvenile) will find himself tracking the pace, build-up on the backstretch, and hit the stretch running his heart out. Trainer, Chad Brown, has worked this guy to build stamina and endurance for his two starts this year. He usually puts his charges through solid customary half mile works. A son of Curlin, he is 100% in the money from his six career starts. He holds the fourth highest overall speed number.
$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#14 Mendelssohn (Moore / A. O'Brien) will challenge from a closer to the pace position. His impressive win in the UAE Derby, winning by 18 lengths, shows that distance will not be a problem for him. That race earned him the second highest speed number among this field. A son of Scat Daddy he will be seeking his fourth win in a row. Another champion, winner of the BC juvenile Turf, he travels well and should be primed an ready for his Derby run.
$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#5 Audible (Castellano / Pletcher) should contend as the Florida Derby winner. He holds the fifth highest over all speed number and has put in three strong peaking workouts. This lad will be pursuing his fifth win in a row and holds a 100% in the money record from five career starts. A son of Into Mischief, he is projected to take up a close tracking position and spring into the stretch.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests
While we feel #7 Justify is a fearsome colt with the highest speed figs of any in this field, we feel the pace flow may be too much for this lightly raced lad. We will use him on top in a saver exacta along with our top choices. We are looking to beef up the exotics with a few long shots.

#11 Bolt d'Oro (Espinoza / Ruis) should be in the mix with the third highest last out speed number, a three race progression, and two superb workouts. This lad can be expected to take another step forward in the third race of his form cycle. A son of Medaglia d'Oro, he is another that is 100% in the money from six career starts. He has a chance to win.

#18 Vino Rosso (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) will shoot out of the auxiliary gate taking up a tracking position close to the first tier of runners. He is the last out winner of the Wood Memorial up at Aqueduct. This son of Curlin should handle the distance and show improvement once again.

#8 Lone Sailor (Graham / Amoss) is in tip-top shape for his Derby run. He ran a game second in the Louisiana Derby last out where the racing light bulb clicked on. This lad has a last out speed figure that competes with this elite group of 3 year-olds and has put in three powerful peaking workouts. A son of Majestic Warrior, he has a closing kick that will match any of these fellas.

#20 Combatant (Santana / Asmussen) just made it into the field after a few defections of horses with more points. His post positon doesn't appear to be problematic as he enjoys coming from off the pace. Trainer, Asmussen works his horses patiently and builds them into fine racing animals. This guy is no exception. One of four sons of the late Scat Daddy, he is one of few with a victory over the Churchill dirt.


The Plays

$1 Exacta Wheel  #6, #14  / #5, #8, #11.

50 CENT Trifecta Box  #6  +  #14  +  #5.

$1 Superfecta  #6 Good Magic  /  #14 Mendelssohn  /  #5 Audible, #8 Lone Sailor, #11 Bolt d'Oro  /  #18 Vino Rosso,  #20 Combatant.

$1 Pentafecta (Super High Five)  #6  /  #14  /  #5  /  #11  /  #8, #18, #20.



Last Superfect Sunday (4/29) Results
Belmont Park R8.  The License Fee.  We just missed on our 10 CENT Superfecta box play capturing three of the four wagering interests required to cash. Superfecta went 7-1-2-3.
Our Bronze Horseshoe selection, Stormy Victoria [FR], finished 2nd for show money of $1.10.
Bankroll dips to $225.70.