Thursday Strategy Session

Thursday Strategy Session

Handicapping Basics for New or Novice Horseplayers

With limited sporting events going on due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many sports enthusiasts are looking at horse racing to fill the void. In fact, if one looks at the handles gathered by smaller tracks (Fonner in Nebraska and Will Rogers Downs in Oklahoma) you might surmise that our cousins in the sports betting realm are looking for action.

Golden Gate, Santa Anita, and Churchill Downs will get under way this horse racing weekend.  Horse racing leads the way to sports recovery.

What are some simple metrics a new or novice horseplayer can look at to make a somewhat intelligent selection in a given race? Without going deep into the weeds on how to decipher the past performances, there are two different data points to look at to pinpoint a strong selection in any given race. Speed numbers and basic Jockey / Trainer stats.

Speed Numbers.

Speed Numbers calculate the performance of a horse in its previous races. They are compiled by various purveyor's of past performances utilizing their proprietary formulas. Such figures allow horseplayers to compare the ability of the horses in a given race. The higher the speed number the better the past performance. You can find them in the box that displays the horses summary statistics and on each racing line for that horse.

The numbers or "key performance indicators" one should focus on is:

• Last three Speed Numbers.
• Speed number at the distance.
• Average of the Last three Speed numbers.

All of these will assist you in ascertaining which horse may be the better horse in the field. Mind you this is a very basic approach, but you will be surprised how often these three "key performance indicators" predict the outcome of the race.

Jockey / Trainer Statistics

These statistics will also help in your overall analysis of any race. These are found on the past performance next to the Jockey's name as well as the Trainer's name. These are very basic, but they are a good indication of how strong both jockey and trainer are as they bring their charge to the race. Additionally you can find the Jockey/Trainer combo stat usually on the bottom right-hand corner of the past performance. This figure shows how well they perform when they team up.

Utilizing the Data

You can grab all of these data points to find the top contenders in any given race. Lay them out on a sheet of paper next to each entrant in the race and give it your analytic best. You will find that utilizing these very basic data points will help you make great picks and potentially round out your exotic (exacta, trifecta, superfecta, and pentafecta) plays. 

Racing All Day Long

Today we look at three fantastic races from the East Coast to the West Coast and then the Gulf Coast.  All relatively warm climate races.  Should be suns of fun.

Gulfstream Race 7 {1 1/16 mile~Turf~4 year old Up~fillies/mares~Allowance}
A great full field lines up for this one, including four on the also eligible list waiting to go. 
Speak Easy Gal (Trujillo / Wolfson) looks like the one to beat.  She has some of the best speed numbers across the board and is 100% in the money on the surface, at the distance and on the track.  There is a lot to like about this gal.  Loxy Lady (A. Garcia / Hennig) shows a strong last out speed number and has put in a respectable workout tab.  Oakshela (Castro / J. Carroll) is another with a fine last out speed number and a series of three peaking workouts. She will be there with the wall of closers at the turn.  Miss MVP (Bravo / Hills) shows a fine peaking workout series of two.  Her distance speed number is right near the top.  Let's play Gulfstream.

$2 SHOW:  #11 Speak Easy Gal
$2 SHOW:  #6 Loxy Lady
10 CENT Superfecta:  #11 Speak Easy Gal / #6 Loxy Lady / #8 Oakshela / #2 Miss MVP

Santa Anita Race 8 {Sunshine Millions Classic~1 1/8 mile~4 year old UP~ Stakes}
A very strong filed assembles for this stakes race.  There is no clear favorite of the group.  We will give a slight edge to the closer, Bad Action (J. Velazquez / Pletcher).  He can be considered a distance specialist with a fine last out speed number and a peaking four workout set.  Compari (Gomez / M. Jones) looks very good as well.  He is expected to be the speed and is holding on to a 100% in the money record going into this race.  Jeranimo (Blanc / Pender) is coming off the best last out speed number of the group.  He looks competitive if he can move up to this distance.  Three horses that will compete for the victory are The Usual Q.T. (Espinoza / Cassidy), who is vying for his sixth win in a row; Bold Chieftain (R. Baze / Morey), who has the top overall speed number; and Wicked Style (Bejarano / Arnold) who shows a very strong workout tab going into this race.  Let's give this challenging Santa Anita race a shot.

$2 SHOW:  #6 Bad Action
$2 SHOW:  #8 Compari
10 CENT Superfecta:  #6 Bad Action / #8 Compari / #1 Jeranimo / #7 The Usual Q.T., #9 Bold Chieftain, #10 Wicked Style.

Sam Houston Race 9 {John B. Conally Handicap~G3~1 1/8 mile~Turf~3 year old Up~Stakes}
This will be an exciting evening race going off at approximately 10:28 PM Central Time.  A full field of fourteen goes to the gate.  This will not be a race for the faint of heart handicapper.  Any horse in this field can win this race. All have posted triple digit speed numbers over their career, some on a consitent basis.  We like the Woodbine invader, Pool Play (Husbands / Casse) in this race. He has the top last out speed number and a nice peaking two workout set.  King Dan (Graham / Keen) will challenge with a top last out speed number and four high level workouts.  Going Ballistic (Quinonez / D. Von Hemmel) has the highest speed number on the Sam Houston track, of the group.  Four solid workouts indicate he is ready to fire.  Red Rock Creek (C. Landeros / Asmussen) is tied with Going Ballistic with the best speed numbers across the board.  Add to that, twenty-three career wins and an aggressive three workout tab and this older guy will be ready to compete.  Orientate Express (Murphy / K. Von Hemmel) has fired a terrific two workout set and like King Dan has the second highest last out speed number.  Will no doubt threaten near the lead.  Let's play a night-cap at Sam Houston.

$2 SHOW:  #11 Pool Play
$2 SHOW:  #3 King Dan
10 CENT Superfecta:  #11 Pool Play / #3 King Dan / #6 Going Ballistic / #1A Red Rock Creek, #10 Orientate Express.

















Friday's Results
Aqueduct R8.  Our first pick, William Thomas finished 8th (last).  Our second pick, Gold Vendetta, finished 2nd for $4.30 in show money.  No 10 CENT Superfecta for this race.
Gulfstream R7.  Our first pick, Becky's Kitten, finished 4th.  Our second pick, On Vacation, finished 7th.  Superfecta went 1-2-3-5.
Our bankroll sits at $13.00.