2020 KENTUCKY DERBY DAY

 Finally, it is here, the 2020 Kentucky Derby. A tremendous day is sure to unfold.

Churchill Downs Race 14 {Kentucky Derby 146~1 1/4 mile~3 year-old~Grade One Stakes}

A fantastic field of sixteen will enter the brand new 20 post gate. During this Derby week there have been two scratches. Most of the top entrants are to the outside with top flight speed figs. Most are all improving horses with a chance to run a big one on this most sacred day for horse men and women. Speed is also configured to the outside with a couple of forwardly placed types littered through out the rest of the field. With the defection of King Guillermo, the pace might not be as fast. It should be a fine Kentucky Derby in an unusual year.

#17 Tiz the Law (M. Franco / Tagg) should pull off the victory if he runs his race and gets a good trip. This guy holds the highest last out speed number and two superb workouts. He has already won at this distance. This colt will be seeking his fifth win in a row. He should get out close to the early pace-setters and begin his run for the roses coming into the turn. A son of Constitution, he is 100% in the money from seven career starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#16 Honor A.P. (M. Smith / Shirreffs) will be the chief challenger to the favorite. He holds a couple of very good last out speed numbers and four exceptional workouts. This guy has hit the board in his last three races. He comes in from California to meet these Derby contenders. This ridgling has the tactical speed to go with the outside speedsters. A son of Honor Code, he is 100% in the money from five career starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#2 Max Player (Santana / Asmussen) will need some pace to unleash his kick. He holds the second highest (3-way tie) last out speed number and two sound workouts. This colt is another that has hit the board at this distance. He comes in from the New York circuit. a ground saving trip will be to his benefit when the real racing begins. Another son of Honor Code, is also 100% in the money from five career starts.

$2 SHOW.

#5 Major Fed (Graham / Foley) looks geared up to run the race of his life with some improving speed numbers and three high octane workouts. He comes in from Indiana Grande and has already hit the board at Churchill. This colt has already run over this distance earning a decent speed fig. A son of  Ghostzapper, this lad is 66% in the money from six career starts.

Other Wagering Interests within our NOTABLE NINE

This solid group of horses should be used in the exotics for good effect. #18 Authentic (J. Velazquez / Baffert) will be the speed of the race seeking to wire the field or hold on for a piece of the purse. He shares that second highest last out speed number. #3 Enforceable (Beschizza / M. Casse) will be closing gallantly in the stretch as a veteran of the Churchill track. Should the pace heat up, this colt will be in the mix. #14 Winning Impression (Rocco / D. Stewart) should improve on the stretch out. This gelding should be included in your tickets as his trainer gets all of his charges ready for the big races. #4 Storm the Court (Leparoux / Eurton) is last year's two year old champion and coming back into good form. He should take up a nice tracking position ready to fire. With the scratch of King Guillermo, we fill out our Notable Nine with #7 Money Moves (Castellano / Pletcher). This colt is on a nice speed number improvement in all three of his career starts. Look for him in mid-pack plotting his move.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($8)

#17 Tiz the Law  //  #16 Honor A. P.,  #2 Max Player,  #5 Major Fed,  #18 Authentic,  #3 Enforceable,  #14 Winning Impression,  #4 Storm the Court,  #7 Money Moves.

50 CENT Trifecta ($1.00)

#17 Tiz the Law  /  #16 Honor A.P.  /  #2 Max Player,  #5 Major Fed.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#17 Tiz the Law  +  #16 Honor A.P.  +  #2 Max Player  +  #5 Major Fed.

$1 Super High Five [Pentafecta ($5.00)

#17 Tiz the Law  /  #16 Honor A.P.  /  #2 Max Player  /  #5 Major Fed  /  #18 Authentic,  #3 Enforceable,  #14 Winning Impression,  #4 Storm the Court,  #7 Money Moves.

Friday Race Results

Churchill Downs R12.  KENTUCKY OAKS--G1.  Our first pick, Swiss Skydiver, finished 2nd for show money of $3.90.  Our second pick, Shedaresthedevil, won for show money of $3.80.

We hit our 10 CENT Superfecta Box play cashing for $27.93. Superfecta went 7-1-5-4.

Bankroll gets back across the "c-note line" settling at $101.02.  

Kentucky Oaks Day

 Today is the Kentucky Oaks for the three year-old fillies. Tomorrow is KD 146.

Churchill Downs Race 12 {Kentucky Oaks~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year-old~Fillies~Graded Stakes}

A splendid field of nine will go to the gate in this annual affair. There is enough speed to create a hot pace. Speed numbers are fairly close with three of these gals sporting triple digit Beyer speed numbers. All have been well prepped for this event. It should be a wonderful event on a beautiful Friday in Kentucky.

#1 Swiss Skydiver (Gaffalione / McPeek) has continued to show improvement with every race. She is the only one to have competed at this distance running against the lads finishing second. She holds the second highest last out speed number and two serious peaking workouts. This gal loves the surface and the Churchill Downs track. A daughter of Daredevil, she is 88% in the money from nine career starts.

$2 WIN   /  $3 SHOW.

#7 Shedaresthedevil (Geroux / B. Cox) is another that continues to improve with each start. She has cobbled together two wins in a row. This gal has the tactical speed to mix nicely into the pace. She has put in three superb peaking workouts in preparation for this race. Another daughter of Daredevil, she too is 88% in the money from nine career starts.

$2 SHOW.

#5 Gamine (J. Velazquez / Baffert) is expected to go off as the even money favorite. And deservedly so. She holds the highest last out speed number and two hearty workouts. This gal will be seeking her third win in a row. Expect her to be the speed of the race. A daughter of Into Mischief, she has a 75% win record from four career starts.

#4 Speech (Castellano / McCarthy) should challenge with the third highest last out speed number and four dynamite peaking workouts. This gal will be forwardly placed with plenty of run. She has hit the board in all seven of her career starts. A daughter of Mr. Speaker, she could be well positioned for an upset.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($3.00)

#1 Swiss Skydiver  ///  #7 Shedaresthedevil,  #5 Gamine,  #4 Speech.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#1 Swiss Skydiver  +  #7 Shedaresthedevil  +  #5 Gamine  +  #4 Speech.

Last Superfecta Sunday (8/30) Results

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club R9.  Optional Claiming.  We flubbed our 10 CENT Superfecta Box effort grabbing only two of the four wagering interests needed to cash. Superfecta went 4-5-9-6.

Our Bronze horseshoe selection, Thanks Mr. Edison, finished 6th.

Bankroll takes another hit, dipping to $77.99.

Stakes Saturday on the Synth

The girls have their shot over the polytrack on this Stakes Saturday.

Turfway Park Race 9 {Bourbonette Oaks~G3~1 mile~3 year-old~Fillies}

A great group of nine will go to the gate in this annual prep feature for the Kentucky Oaks.  There is some speed which should produce an honest pace. Speed numbers are fairly close. Only a couple have yet to run over synthetic, but both should be able to handle it nicely. This should be a highly competitive event for these future stars.

#2 Consolida [GB] (Van Dyke / Gallagher) is coming in from the West Coast. She holds the highest last out speed number, albeit over the Tapeta at Golden Gate. This gal has run over the synthetic successfully across the pond in Great Britain. She comes into this race working a three race progression and putting in two hearty workouts. A daughter of Sir Percy [GB], she should track and go.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#11 Go Noni Go (Gaffalione / Maker) will challenge with the third highest (tie) last out speed number and four strong workouts. She should be forwardly placed ready to strike coming into the stretch. A daughter of Get Stormy, she does hold the highest speed number at the distance.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#9 Homemade Salsa (Landeros / Maker) should contend sharing the third highest last out speed number, working a three race progression, and putting in two robust workouts. This gal relished the surface, distance and the Turfway track. A daughter of Two Step Salsa, she should track and close efficiently.

$2 SHOW.

#10 Bet She Wins (Jimenez / Block) comes into this race off a reasonable layoff. She has been successful, hitting the board in her two starts at this distance. Putting in three credible workouts, she will be tracking the pace and pounce in the stretch. A daughter of First Samurai, she has a victory over the Poly at Arlington International.

10 CENT Superfecta

#2 Consolida [GB]  /  #11 Go Noni Go  /  #9 Homemade Salsa, #10 Bet She Wins  /  ALL.

Last Superfecta Sunday (3/11) Results

Gulfstream Park R9.  Optional Claiming. We missed out on our 10 CENT Superfecta box ticket capturing only two of the four wagering interests required. Superfecta went 5-3-1-2.

Our Bronze Horseshoe selection, Summer Luck, finished 2nd for show money of $5.10.

Bankroll slides three dimes to settle at $245.44.

Furlong Friday in Horse Country

We look at a wonderful stakes race in Horse Country for our Furlong Friday.

Churchill Downs Race 7 {Eight Belles Stakes~G2~7 Furlongs~3 year-old Up~Fillies~Graded Stakes}

A great field of eight will go to the gate in this feature stakes race on today's Oaks undercard. There is plenty of speed to create a frothy pace. Speed numbers are fairly close giving it a very competitive feel. It should be one of many exciting Stakes races on Churchill's Kentucky Oaks card.

#8 Nickname (Castellano / Asmussen) could pull off the victory with the second highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and three superb peaking workouts. This gal is one of four in here that have gone this special sprint distance. She should track the pace closely and strike in the lane.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#5 Carina Mia (Leparoux / Mott) should go off as the favorite with the highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and three strong peaking workouts. She has already posted a win over the Churchill track and should be the controlling speed.

#3 Summer Reading (L. Saez / Jerkens) should contend with the highest speed number at the distance. She holds the fourth highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and three robust workouts. This gal should be forwardly placed ready to battle.

#2 Jade Princess (Espinoza / Baffert) is coming in from California ready to roll. She holds the third highest last out speed number at a route, a two race progression, and four speedy workouts. She should travel close to the pace looking for an opening.

Superfecta Play
Today and Kentucky Derby day the superfecta wager is one dollar ($1).

#8 Nickname  /  #5 Carina Mia  /  #3 Summer Reading  /  #2 Jade Princess.



Thursday's Results
Santa Anita Park R5. Starter Allowance.  Our pick, Nazareth, finished 7th.
Superfecta went 6-1-2-8.
Bankroll plummets to $1.66. We will supplement with a Lincoln to todays contest.

KENTUCKY DERBY 140

We waded through all of the Derby prep races and now it is time for the big dance, The Kentucky Derby.

Churchill Downs Race 11 {Kentucky Derby 140~G1~1 1/4 miles~3 year old~Stakes}
A fabulous field of nineteen will go to the gates for the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby, the most prestigious race in America.  Boy, howdy, is there speed and forwardly placed types in this edition of the race.  All have not yet ventured out at this distance.  Nearly all have raced well in their prep races.  Most have run diligently in their works.  They all appear ready to run the greatest two minutes in all of sports.

#20 Wicked Strong (Maragh / Jerkens) will have a legitimate pace to run into with his nice tracking/closing running style.  He holds the second highest last out speed number, a three race progression, and four stamina enriching, peaking workouts. Winner of the Wood Memorial.  This son of Hard Spun appears ready to make a victorious run of KD 140.
$2 WIN / $3 PLACE / $4 SHOW.

#5 California Chrome (V. Espinoza / Sherman) will not give up easily and is clearly the horse to beat.  He holds the highest last out speed number and has put in two strong workouts.  This son of Lucky Pulpit will join the front running group and should dispatch them efficiently. He had a smashing victory in the Santa Anita Derby.  With four wins in a row he will need to dig deep to hold off those seeking to catch him in the stretch.
$2 PLACE / $3 SHOW.

#6 Samraat (J. Ortiz / Violette) should challenge with his versatile running style.  The handsome son of Noble Causeway holds the fourth highest (tie) last out speed number, a three race progression, and two endurance producing workouts. This guy finished second in the Wood Memorial.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#10 Wildcat Red (Saez / Garoffalo) should be in the hunt sharing the fourth highest last out speed number and two hearty workouts.  A son of D'Wildcat, is 100% in the money from seven starts. This lad was second in the Florida Derby.  He should be one of the forwardly placed types moving on through the stretch.

#15 Tapiture (Santana / Asmussen) could be in the mix with a couple of very good last out speed numbers and three credible peaking workouts.  This son of Tapit is on the cusp of another improvement while tracking the pace closely.  He holds the highest speed number over the Churchill track. In his last, he placed fourth in the Arkansas Derby.

Superfecta
For the purposes of the Kentucky Derby, the Superfecta is one USD.

#20 Wicked Strong  /  #5 California Chrome  /  #6 Samraat  /  #10 Wildcat Red, #15 Tapiture.



Friday's Results
Churchill Downs R11.  Kentucky Oaks--G1.  Our first pick, Untapable, won (1st) for win money of $4.00 and show money of $3.90.  Our second pick, My Miss Sophia, finished 2nd for show money of $4.40.  Our third pick, Sugar Shock, finished 7th.
Mea Culpa, there was no 10 CENT Superfecta.  Superfecta went 13-11-9-4.
Bankroll gets a three buck lift to $27.99.

On to Kentucky

On this fantastic Friday, the day before the best Saturday of the year, we take a look at the fillies under warm sunny skies.

Churchill Downs Race 11 {Kentucky Oaks~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year old~fillies~Stakes}
A tremendously talented group of thirteen will go to the gate in this graded stakes race.  There is plenty of speed to keep the pace burning.  Only two have gone the distance prior to this race.  All have put together creditable work tabs and appear ready for the race.  It should be a very high quality race.

#13 Untapable (Napravnik / Asmussen) will probably go off the favorite with the highest last out speed number (the only triple digit among the group), a four race progression, and three strong peaking workouts.  This daughter of Tapit has secured two victories at Churchill from two starts.  She should be close to the pace ready to launch into the stretch.
$2 WIN / $3 SHOW.

#11 My Miss Sophia (Castellano / Pletcher) should challenge from the front end with second highest last out speed number, a three race progression, and two diligent workouts.  A daughter of Unbridled's Song, this filly is 100% in the money from three starts.
$2 SHOW.

#3 Sugar Shock (Borel / Anderson) is on a roll with four straight victories.  A daughter of Candy Ride [ARG], she holds the third highest last out speed number, a three race progression, and one sound workout.  This gal should be forwardly placed and with the "Prince of Churchill" in the irons, should get a superb trip.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#12 Got Lucky (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) should be in contention with a couple of decent last out speed numbers and two robust workouts.  She is one of those that have gone this distance twice and has been in the money both times.  This daughter of A.P. Indy is one of two in the race nominated to the Triple Crown.

#9 Unbridled Forever (Albarado / Stewart) should be in the hunt with a couple of good last out speed numbers and three stout workouts.  She holds the highest speed number over the Churchill course.  Another Unbridled's Song daughter, she should be forwardly placed.

10 CENT Superfecta

#13 Untapable  /  #11 My Miss Sophia  /  #3 Sugar Shock  /  #12 Got Lucky, #9 Unbridled Forever.



Friday's Results
Santa Anita R6.  Allowance.  Our first pick, Kathleen Rose, won (1st) for show money of $4.40.  Our second pick, One Time Only, finished 6th.
Superfecta went 1-6-2-5.
Bankroll gains a few times to settle at $4.69.  We will supplement with a couple of Hamilton's for this weekends exciting racing activity.




 

It's Time for KD 139

Magnificent Churchill Downs beckons many a handicapper, amateur and pro alike, on this first Saturday in May for a chance to take a share of the wagering pool in America's greatest horse race, The Kentucky Derby. 

Churchill Downs Race 11 {Kentucky Derby 139~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year old~Stakes}

There will be a field of 19 handsome colts walking onto the track with the huge Churchill Downs crowd cheering on their favorites.  #1 Black Onyx has scratched due to an ankle chip.  It should be a great Stakes Saturday.


Observations

Weather:  According to Weather.com there is a 40% chance of showers likely to begin around 16:00.  That chance increases to 50% around 18:00.  The KD 139 is scheduled to go off at 18:24 (6:24 pm EDT)  Depending on the strength of that rain the track may come up muddy, sloppy, or good.  This could be a key handicapping data point.  Who are the mudders in the race?

Pace:  Expect it to be strong.  There are several in the field who are speedsters or definitely like to be forwardly placed.  #2 Oxbow can be considered a speedy presser. Ditto for #8 Goldencents.  Both #7 Giant Finish and #11 Lines of Battle have a fondness for pressing the pace.  Another speedster / presser is #13 Falling Sky.  One of the Favorites, #14 Verrazano, likes to sit close to the pace.  Two with tactical speed who like to get a feel on how the pace develops are #17 Will Take Charge and #20 Vyjack.  If the pace is modest any one of these fellas could win it.  The balance of the field are trackers or closers or any combination in between.  Should the pace become heated, count on one of the horses that relish coming from off the pace to wear the roses.

Random Thoughts:  Not one of these fine colts has gone this distance of a mile and a quarter (1 1/4 mile).  The only horse that has raced close to it was #11 Lines of Battle, winning convincingly, the UAE Derby on a Tapeta (synthetic) surface at a distance of 1 3/16 mile.  All have had tremendous workouts leading up to this years Derby.  Among the more notable are #12 Its My Lucky Day with a strengthening three peaking works,  #13 Falling Sky with two wickedly good bullet works, and #17 Will Take Charge with four endurance peaking works.  Speed figures are relatively comparable.  Triple digit Beyer scores are indicative of a superior horse.  Those that have them include; #8 Goldencents (105), #16 Verrazano (105), #12 Its My Lucky Day (104), #3 Revolutionary (102) and for good measure, #11 Lines of Battle established a 111 Racing Post rating for his win in the UAE Derby.  The entire field of three year olds have been well conditioned by their trainers and should see more improvement in their racing career.


The Picks

#16 Orb (Rosario / McGaughey) is the morning line favorite.  He has continued to improve with virtually every race he has run holding the longest race progression of six.  This stellar son of Malibu Moon out of the Lady Liberty mare has the second highest last out speed number and has put in three superb peaking workouts.  This colt is a consistent tracker/closers who is quite capable of running down this field with a good trip.
$2 WIN / $3 PLACE / $5 SHOW.

#5 Normandy Invasion (Castellano / C. Brown) will challenge mightily with a couple of very good improving last out speed numbers, a two race progression, and two exciting workouts.  This son of Tapit out of the mare Boston Lady will be running late.  Should their be a grueling pace, expect him to launch a ferocious kick
$2 PLACE / $3 SHOW.

#3 Revolutionary (Borel / Pletcher) has the distinct advantage of having the Prince of Churchill riding him.  Calvin Borel has already won three Kentucky Derby's in this century.  This son of War Pass out of the mare, Runup The Colors, has been well primed with two excellent last out speed numbers, a two race progression, and two robust workouts. His tracking/closing running style will suit him well.
$2 SHOW.

#11 Lines of Battle (Moore / O'Brien) should contend favourably among this talented field.  He holds a great last out Racing Post rating and is in the midst of a two race progression.  This son of War Front and mare, Black Speck, has raced well in Ireland and Great Britain.  Expect this dark brown colt to stay close to the leaders biding his time for a strike through the turn.
$2 SHOW.



Superfecta
There is no 10 CENT Superfecta offered on Derby Day.  However we will go with the one dollar minimum.  After all it is the Derby.
#16 Orb / #5 Normandy Invasion / #3 Revolutionary / #11 Lines of Battle.


The Pro's Picks

There are many great professional handicappers across the country.  Here are a few of the best of the best and their respective picks for Kentucky Derby 139.
Steve Crist (Drf.com) is the don of handicappers and has weighed in with his Derby pick, #9 Overanalyze.  The esteemed Andrew Beyer (Washington Post Writers Group) who literally wrote the book on speed, has selected #8 Goldencents.  Jill Byrne, one of the finest Churchill Downs handicappers has chosen #3 Revolutionary.  The always insightful and crafty minded, Theresa Genero (Brooklynbackstretch.com) has also selected #3 Revolutionary.  Our favorite handicapping pros at DRF.com, Dan Illman and Mike Beer have made their picks of #8 Goldencents and #5 Normandy Invasion, respectively.


There should be no doubt that the 2013 Kentucky Derby will be one of the best in this decade.  The new Derby point system has produced a highly talented field with any one of these competitive colts capable of making their way into the winners circle.



Friday's Results
Churchill Downs R11.  Kentucky Oaks--G1.  Our first pick, Dreaming of Julia, finished a disappointing 4th.  Our second pick, Unlimited Budget, finished 3rd for show money of $3.80.  Our third pick, Seaneen Girl, finished 9th.
We abandoned the Superfecta as CDI already changed over to the minimum $1 offering.  Nonetheless the Superfecta went 6-3-4-8.
Bankroll continues a downward trend falling to $12.85.  We will supplement with an additional twelve bucks.  Hello, its Derby Day. 

Friday is for Fillies at Churchill Downs

The greatest American horse race, is tomorrow, the 2013 Kentucky Derby 139.  On this Friday we take a look at the beautiful and talented fillies in the Kentucky Oaks.

Churchill Downs Race 11 {Kentucky Oaks~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year old~fillies~Stakes}
A most magnificent field of ten (one entrant has already scratched) will go to the gate in one of the premiere races of the year.  There is a huge amount of speed in here which may set up well for those coming from off the pace or staying very close to the leaders in a pressing attack.  These extremely talented gals all look well prepped for this one.

#8 Dreaming of Julia (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) is in best position to win this one with a superb pressing / tracking running style.  She holds the highest speed number at the distance which also is the highest last out speed number.  This wonderful filly is working a four race progression and has put in three solid works during a brief freshening.  Definitely the one to beat.
$2 WIN.

#4 Unlimited Budget (Castellano / Pletcher) will challenge with her superb tactical speed.  World class trainer, Todd Pletcher, has four in this race to go along with the five he has in KD 139.  This gal may give him the exacta with the second highest last out speed number, a four race progression, and three fierce workouts.  She has already gone this distance securing a victory.
$2 SHOW.

#5 Seaneen Girl (Napravnik / Flint) could also challenge particularly with her tracking running style.  She has a couple of decent last out speed numbers and has improved in each of her last six races.  This lass has already scored a victory over the Churchill track and has put in three mighty peaking workouts.  Coming off a nice freshening, she should fire convincingly.
$2 SHOW.

Additional Wagering Interests

#11 Close Hatches (Rosario / Mott) should be in the hunt with a couple of decent last out speed numbers, a three race progression, and two terrific workouts.  She will be part of the speed force on the front end with the ability to hold on for a piece of the purse pie.

#6 Princess of Sylmar (Smith / Pletcher) could surprise with a couple of decent last out speed numbers and showing continued improvement setting a two race progression.  This gal is one of four to have already successfully gone this distance.  She is a tracker that will take advantage of a steamy pace.

10 CENT Superfecta

#8 Dreaming of Julia, #4 Unlimited Budget / #8, #4 / #5 Seaneen Girl / #11 Close Hatches, #6 Princess of Sylmar.



Thursday's Results
Betfair Hollywood Park R7.  Optional Claiming.  Our first pick, Keyboard Courage, finished 4th.  Our second pick, Bluegrass Reward, finished 5th.
Superfecta went 2-5-3-8.
Bankroll gets plunged to $15.05

2012 Kentucky Derby 138

It has arrived.  The 138th running of the Kentucky Derby.  Scheduled to go off at 6:24 pm Eastern time.  This years running of the roses will be a spectacular race with any one of a bakers dozen having a chance to strut into the winners circle.

Churchill Downs Race 11 {Kentucky Derby 138~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year old~Stakes}
A full field of twenty will line up for the greatest two minutes in sports.  The field has plenty of speed, overpowering speed which may set up well for those coming from off the pace.  It is encouraging to note that all running styles are represented in this Derby.  It will be an exhilerating KD 138.

#10 Daddy Nose Best (Gomez / Asmussen) has a very slight edge with the third highest speed number over the surface.  He holds the third highest last out speed number, a three race progression, and four vigorous workouts.  He appears to peaking for this race.  Trainer, Steve Asmussen has managed him well and should have him primed for the victory.
$2 WIN / $3 SHOW.

#15 Gemologist (Castellano / Pletcher) will challenge as the undefeated runner in this race.  He has done little wrong in his five race career, but it is exceptionally difficult to keep such a streak alive.  Ask the great Zenyatta.  This colt should sit close to the pace ready to launch a first strike on the leaders.  He holds the fourth highest (3-way tie) last out speed number, a five race progression, and two ruggedly strong workouts.  No question trainer, Todd Pletcher, has this guy wired for a superb race.
$2 PLACE / $2 SHOW.

#1 Daddy Long Legs (O'Donoghue / O'Brien) is a tracker coming out of the dreaded number one gate.  Despite the bad post, he will challenge this group of twenty superior quality horses.  He is coming in fresh off his victory in the UAE Derby at Meydan (Dubai) over the tapeta surface.  His racing post rating for that race compares favourably with the highest speed numbers in this field.  This Kentucky born son of Scat Daddy is working a four race progression.  His jockey- trainer combination is long on experience in some of the top races in Europe and beyond.  He should track and close mightily.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#6 Bodemeister (Smith / Baffert) is the fastest horse in the field having run triple-digit speed numbers in three of his four career starts.  There is some fast and furious speed in this year's Derby which may be his undoing.  The wiley veteran jockey, Mike Smith, may have to work the hardest of all to get this guy to the winners circle.  This young colt holds the highest last out speed number, is working a four race progression, and has put in three super swift workouts.  Trainer, Bob Baffert, has him well prepped.

#8 Creative Cause (Rosario / Harrington) looks ready to run a big race with a couple of exceptional last out speed numbers including the third best over the surface.  This son of Giant's Causeway is 100% in the money in an eight race career and has put in three robust, peaking workouts.  The colt could pull off a major upset.

$1 Superfecta
With no 10 CENT Superfecta offered, we will place a dollar superfecta.  Hey it's the Kentucky Derby!!

#10 Daddy Nose Best / #15 Gemologist / #1 Daddy Long Legs / #6 Bodemeister, #8 Creative Cause.



Friday's Results
Churchill Downs R11.  Kentucky Oaks--G1.  Our first pick, On Fire Baby, finished 5th.  Our second pick, Grace Hall, finished 3rd for show money of $3.20.  Our third pick, Broadway's Alibi, finished 2nd for show money of $4.20.
Superfecta went 9-6-2-3.

Arlington Park R7.  Our first pick, Aztec Run, finished 3rd for show money of $2.20.  Our second pick, Image of Grandeur, finished 2nd for show money of $2.20.
We scuttled our 10 CENT Superfecta because of a scratch.  Superfecta went 1-2-6-5.

Bankroll gets a bump to $12.62.  We will supplement with a fin ($5.00) for today's wagering.

A Big Kentucky Oaks, A Little Arlington Turf

The eve before the greatest spectacle in sports, The Kentucky Derby, we look at the Kentucky Oaks showcasing a full field and a little Arlington Park Turf feature.

Churchill Downs Race 11 {Kentucky Oaks~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year old~fillies~Stakes}
A formidable group of fourteen gals will line up for 138th running of this race.  There is plenty of speed which may very well benefit those coming from off the pace.  You can make a case for virtually everyone of these fillies in this deep field.  It will be a very good race.

#1 On Fire Baby (Johnson / Hartlage) has a slight edge with the highest last out speed number, a three race progression, and two very strong workouts.  She should be forwardly placed ready to strike in the stretch.
$2 SHOW.

#2 Grace Hall (Castellano / A. Dutrow) will challenge with the highest speed number at the distance and three robust peaking workouts.  Another who will press the pace and look for an advantage in the stretch.
$2 SHOW.

#6 Broadway's Alibi (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) should be in the hunt showing solid speed with the second highest (3-way tie) last out speed number and two hearty workouts.  She might wire the field.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#3 Summer Applause (Gomez / Calhoun) should be in the mix sharing the second highest last out speed number and putting in two mighty workouts.  She could be forwardly placed ready to roll in the lane.

#13 Aimie's Dini (Court / Moquett) is another that will stay close to the pace ready to launch heading into the turn with the third highest last out speed number and three superb workouts.  This gal has been in the money in all of her seven races.

No 10 CENT Superfecta Offered



Arlington Park Race 7 {1 mile~TURF~3 year old Up~Claiming}
The diamond of Northwest Suburban Chicago opens its 2012 season today.

A tidy little field of six will venture onto the Arlington Park green.  It might look like a Euro-style turf battle as there no speed to speak of.  Expect a nice quickening of the pace going into the turn.

#6 Aztec Run (Torres / Domensky) could pull off the victory with the highest speed number at the distance, coming off a longer route and posting four excellent workouts.  He could close quickly.
$2 SHOW.

#2 Image of Grandeur (Meier / J. Becker) will challenge with the highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and one stout workout.  Another who could close wickedly.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#3 King Crimson (D. Sanchez / Hansen) looks well enough to contend with the highest (tie) speed number over the surface, a two race progression, and one good workout.

#1 Here Comes Henry (Cancharia / Weir) should be in the hunt with the second highest speed number at the distance and one modest workout.

10 CENT Superfecta

#6 Aztec Run / #2 Image of Grandeur / #3 King Crimson / #1 Here Comes Henry.



Thursday's Results
Betfair Hollywood Park R7.  Our first pick, Anniversary Girl, finished 5th.  Our second pick, Secret Cove, finished 6th.
Superfecta went 4-3-1-5.
Bankroll gets whacked and falls to $0.92.  We will supplement with $10.00 for today's racing.

It's Derby Time

The 137th running of the Kentucky Derby will go off in approximately six hours.  With one scratch the field will consist of nineteen still developing three year-olds.  There is no clear favorite, but many to consider.  The trainers have done all they can to prepare their contenders for this race, hopefully bringing them into peak for.  Now they must place them in the hands of the jockey's who must wade the horses through a thick field of equine athletes.  This years Derby is a enormous handicapping challenge.  But try we must.

Churchill Downs Race 11 {Kentucky Derby 137~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year old~Stakes}
A very nice group of nineteen talented and improving horses will go to the post.  Not one have them have raced at this distance.  All have made their case to be in this race by virtue of their graded earnings.  In terms of speed figures all are with in quarter seconds of each other making this the most challenging field in this century.  Here is notable nine to consider.

#11 Master of Hounds (Gomez / O'Brien) is the Irish invader looking to sneak a KD win for the Euros.  He is coming back to his birthplace, Kentucky, after racing overseas.  He is the only one in the field to have raced 110 yards short of the Derby distance.  He ran well in that race in Dubai, posting a second place finish.  He has raced at Churchill Downs, albeit on the Turf.  Jockey, Garrett Gomez would like nothing better to add a Kentucky Derby win to his sound Hall of Fame resume.  Aidan O'Brien is one of the best conditioners in the world.  He will have his young charge ready.
$2 WIN / $4 SHOW.

#1 Archarcharch (Court / Fires) This could be the year for jockey, Jon Court.  It will be his first Derby mount in an already quite successful career.  Trainer William "Jinks" Fires has managed this horses racing career magnificently.  He shows the highest (tie) last out speed number, a four race progression, and three strong, peaking workouts.  He will be tracking the field.
$2 SHOW.

#19 Nehro (Nakatani / Asmussen) will challenge also with the highest last out speed number, a four race progression, and three solid, peaking workouts.  Trainer, Steve Asmussen, makes it back to the Derby with a top contender.  Jockey, Corey Nakatani, will place this guy in a good closing position.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#13 Mucho Macho Man (Maragh / Ritvo) is tough enough capture the win making it the first for a female trainer in one Kathy Ritvo.  Up and coming jockey, Rajiv Maragh, will guide this guy.  3M has the highest speed number over a fast dirt surface, a couple of decent last out speed numbers, and four stamina producing, peaking workouts.  He should be forwardly placed.

#17 Soldat (A. Garcia / McLaughlin) could win if the track turns up sloppy come race time.  He holds the highest overall speed number, a triple digit, in the mud.  He has put in a couple of robust workouts in preparation for this race.

#4 Stay Thirsty (Dominguez / Pletcher) is another contender with a decent speed number over the surface and three hearty workouts.  Any Todd Pletcher trained horse has to be considered.  Teaming up with jockey Ramon Dominguez makes this guy more appealing.

#8 Dialed In (Leparoux / Zito) will be closing swiftly from the clouds if a good pace sets up.  He has a couple of decent, improving last out speed numbers, a two race progression, and two workmanlike workouts.  Trainer, Nick Zito, knows how to peak his horses for the main event.  Jockey Julien Leparoux had an outstanding Kentucky Oaks day yesterday which will make this guy dangerous.

#5 Decisive Moment (Clark / Arias) is a much improving colt who appears well prepped to have a big race with two improving last out speed numbers, a two race progression, and two athletic workouts.  He could be the biggest surprise.

#7 Pants On Fire (Napravnik / Breen) could do well with a modest pace allowing him to get first jump on the field as they head into the stretch.  He holds the fourth highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and three well-built, peaking workouts.  Should jockey, Rosie Napravnik, get him to the wire first, it will be the first Kentucky Derby win for a female jockey.  He could make history.

$1 Superfecta (There is no 10 CENT Superfecta Offered, but it's the Derby, Let's play) 

#11 Master of Hounds / #1 Archarcharch / #19 Nehro / #13 Mucho Macho Man.

















Friday's Results
Churchill Downs R11.  Kentucky Oaks.  Our first pick, Summer Soiree, finished 10th.  Our second pick, Daisy Devine, finished 7th.  Our third pick, Zazu, finished 3rd for show money of $4.00.  Superfecta went 12-13-6-1.
Bankroll dips to $7.20.  We will supplement for today's KD 137 with an extra $10.00.

The Fillies Have the Oaks

Today the Kentucky Oaks, tomorrow the Kentucky Derby.  On the eve of KD 137 we look at the talented fillies in the Kentucky Oaks.  There is a fantastic undercard on Oaks day.

Churchill Downs Race 11 {Kentucky Oaks~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year old~fillies~Stakes}
A lucky field of thirteen will go to the gate.  Only one of these gals has raced at this distance, the rest will be moving up in distance.  In a full, talented field like this there are several that could pull off the win.  The field is as wide open as the Derby will be tomorrow.

#3 Summer Soiree (Saez / Motion) has the speed to control the pace and run to victory.  She will be moving up from a mile distance with the highest last out speed number, a four race progression, and three superlative, peaking workouts.  She will attempt to wire this field.
$2 SHOW.

#9 Daisy Devine (Graham / McKeever) will be forwardly placed ready to strike at the top of the stretch.  She has a comparatively decent last out speed number, a five race progression in a five race career, and four sensational, peaking workouts.  It should be noted that jockey, James Graham, brings his game to a top level on big race days.  This gal is one of the few on today's card that could pull off an upset.
$2 SHOW.

#6 Zazu (Rosario / Sadler) this gal looks in beautiful form ready to challenge with the third highest last out speed number, a three race progression and four stamina inducing workouts prepping her for the distance.  She will challenge swiftly in the stretch.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#12 Plum Pretty (M. Garcia / Baffert) is another that could post the win.  She has the highest last out speed number, a four race progression, and four endurance peaking workouts.  Despite the outside post don't count this filly out.

#1 Joyful Victory (Smith / L. Jones) will be the favorite with a couple of decent last out speed numbers with wins to point to.  She is holding a four race progression and has posted two robust workouts.  She will be tracking the pace and saving ground near the rail.

#4 Kathmanblu (Leparoux / McPeek) is another that will be in the hunt for the big purse.  She has the second highest (tie)  overall speed number, a couple of decent last out speed numbers and two solid workouts.  She could also launch a strong closing effort at the top of the stretch.

There is NO 10 CENT Superfecta Offered on Oaks and Derby Days.

















Thursday's Results
Hollywood R5.  Our first pick, Courtside, finished 5th.  Our second pick, Dancing At Dark, placed 2nd for show money of $4.00.  Our third pick, Chinese Praise, finished 4th.  Superfecta went 1-2-5-6.
Bankroll Dips to $7.20.

 

The Kentucky Oaks is for Fillies

The day before the Kentucky Derby.  We have waited for this day all summer and fall as the 2 year olds made their way around the tracks increasing their distances as they grew.  January brought a new year and they all became three.  Tomorrow is the first Saturday in May and twenty of them will go to the gate.  Today is the day for the fillies, the Kentucky Oaks.

Churchill Race 11 {Kentucky Oaks~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year old~fillies~Stakes}
A full, extremely competitive field goes to the gate in the race that Rachel Alexandra blasted her way to victory in the muck, last year.  This year the overwhelming favorite is Blind Luck (Bejarano / Hollendorfer) with the highest surface and last out speed number. She has also worked magnificently with three strong workouts.  Definitely the one to beat.  Amen Hallelujah (Leparoux / Dutrow) looks like the best of the rest.  She has gone this distance with the highest speed number and two robust workouts.  Tidal Pool (Borel / Lukas) has the second highest speed number on the dirt surface and two athletic workouts.  She will be in the hunt for a piece of the purse.  Beautician (Solis / McPeek) has posted the best workout tab and appears to be ready to fire.  She has the highest speed number over the Churchill track and three solid, peaking workouts.  It's Tea Time (A. Garcia / Arnold) may be the surprise having already traversed this distance while on Turf.  She has a three race progression and two sturdy workouts.  Let's play the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.

$2 WIN:  #5 Blind Luck.
$2 SHOW:  #13 Amen Hallelujah
$2 SHOW:  #8 Tidal Pool
10 CENT Superfecta (if available):  #5 Blind Luck / #13 Amen Hallelujah / #8 Tidal Pool / #6 Beautician, #1 It's Tea Time.
















Thursday's Results
Churchill R9.  Our first pick, Whirling Thunder, finished 7th.  Our second pick, Harken Up, finished 2nd for show money of $3.60.  There was a 10 CENT superfecta and it went 7-11-2-6.
Arlington Park R9.  Our first pick, Burning Crusasde, finished 12th (last).  Our second pick, Rob Young, finished 2nd for show money of $4.60.  Superfecta went 5-8-4-2.
Bankroll dips to $64.90.