Two Year Old Horses
There were a number of fabulous races for 2 year olds run last year. We handicapped a total of twenty in this category. Unfortunately, our picks in two of those selected races were scratched. Consequently, we used eighteen for the basis of our statistics. We had a WIN record of 17%. Our ITM (in the money) stat was 50%.
The 10 CENT Superfecta
We did not do so well in this category. The superfecta wager is the most challenging of all the exotic wagers. That is why we recommend a 10 CENT Superfecta. The 10 CENT Superfecta helps keep your bankroll intact. It is difficult to predict the first four finishers in a race, but the reward can be great. Could you imagine how much dough you would burn through if you bet a dollar or two on the superfecta? In this category we wagered a total of $16.70 during the quarter, but did not garner any reward.
Showing posts with label Metrics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Metrics. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
More Metrics from 2009
As we break down some more stats from our 2009 Handicapping year, actually quarter year, we did pretty well with our selections.
We handicapped 29 3 year old and Up Graded Stakes races and finished with a 9 (1st)-9 (2nd)-2 (3rd) record. Looking at these numbers we had a 31% WIN record and were 69% in the money on all the Graded Stakes handicapped.
22 non-graded Stakes races for 3 year old and Up horses were looked at. We finished with a 8-4-4 record. We posted a 37% WIN record and were 73% in the money.
With respect to 3 year old and Up Allowance races we finished 6-3-3. A decent 22% WIN record along with an overall 43% in the money record was posted.
We only handicapped 2 Optional Claimers for 3 year olds and Up. This produced 1 win and 1 place. Which extrapolated yields a 50% WIN record and 100% in the money.
On the whole we enjoyed some handicapping success. We will need to improve our wagering methods to enjoy greater financial success. On Wednesdays we will continue to look at our 2009 stats.
We handicapped 29 3 year old and Up Graded Stakes races and finished with a 9 (1st)-9 (2nd)-2 (3rd) record. Looking at these numbers we had a 31% WIN record and were 69% in the money on all the Graded Stakes handicapped.
22 non-graded Stakes races for 3 year old and Up horses were looked at. We finished with a 8-4-4 record. We posted a 37% WIN record and were 73% in the money.
With respect to 3 year old and Up Allowance races we finished 6-3-3. A decent 22% WIN record along with an overall 43% in the money record was posted.
We only handicapped 2 Optional Claimers for 3 year olds and Up. This produced 1 win and 1 place. Which extrapolated yields a 50% WIN record and 100% in the money.
On the whole we enjoyed some handicapping success. We will need to improve our wagering methods to enjoy greater financial success. On Wednesdays we will continue to look at our 2009 stats.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Metrics, Aqueduct and Gulfstream
We have put together some metrics for our performance over the last quarter when this blog was started. Any good handicapper will keep track of their selections and the results. Making adjustments along the way and determining strengths, as well as weaknesses. Here are a few basic performance metrics:
Overall Performance 107 races 24 wins (27%) 58 itm (55%)
Turf Sprints 33% itm (in the money)
Turf Routes 71% itm
As we review this we are going to make some adjusments in our wagering strategy. You will recall that we had deployed a "rolling show parlay" strategy, but our results were as volatile as the stock market. We will maintain the same budget allowance of no more than $5.00 per race. However, we will now look at WIN/SHOW wagers on certain races, while staying on budget.
We will post more metrics on Wednesdays as we cull through the data.
Today we look at allowance races at Aqueduct and Gulfstream.
Aqueduct Race 8 {6 furlongs~4 year old Up~Allowance}
Looking at the past performances for this race, there are a few horses in here that could win. We like the Linda Rice trained, Jess Not Jesse (Napravnik / Rice). A decent last out speed number couple with the best workout tab of the group, puts this guy in the driver seat. Montecore (Cohen / Klesaris) has the second highest speed number over the surface and has done well at the distance. No workouts within the last thirty days gives us pause. Ramblinggamblinman (Jara / R. Dutrow) shows a solid speed number at the distance and his workout tab is very strong. He will be a factor. Have You Ever (Luzzi / Jacobson) will be the speed of the group and may hold on for a small piece of the purse. Buddy's Song (Dominguez / Levine) looks good from a jockey-trainer perspective and his workouts are solid. He will be in the race to the finish. Let's play Aqueduct.
$2 WIN / SHOW: #4 Jess Not Jesse
There is NO 10 CENT Superfecta for this race.
Gulfstream Race 7 {1 1/16 mile~Turf~4 year old Up~fillies/mares~Allowance}
A full field of twelve assembles for this race with and additional four "also eligible" horses sitting on the bench waiting to get into the race should any scratches occur. The group of four waiting to gain entry look awfully good and well prepared for this race. This solidly competitive field is a tough one to handicap. Classical Fashion (C. Velasquez / Contessa) looks to have a very slight edge. She shares the highest speed number at the distance with Obsequious (Maragh / Cray) and Blue Hill Bay (Saez / Everett). Where Classical Fashion stands out is with a respectable last out speed number and a strong group of workouts. Toocleverforwords (Castro / McGaughey) looks very solid with a good last out speed number and a good workout tab. Speak Easy Gal (Castellano / Contessa) looks like she will do well with a strong last out speed number, solid race progression, and decent couple of workouts. With Kent Desormeaux in the irons, Flaming Rose (Desormeaux / Coatrieux) cannot be ignored. Desormeaux, in our opinion, is the best turf jockey in the country. Flaming Rose has a nice race progression and is shifting from the all weather surface to turf. Will be a factor. Girl Can Rock (Marquez / Orseno) will be moving up in distance, but seems to be well prepared for this race with a nice race progression and a good workout tab. Let's make a great play at Gulfstream.
$2 SHOW: #3 Classical Fashion
$2 SHOW: #4 Flaming Rose
10 CENT Superfecta: #3 Classical Fashion / #5 Toocleverforwords / #2 Speak Easy Gal, #4 Flaming Rose / #8 Girl Can Rock, #2, #4
Last Sunday's Results
Gulfstream R8. Our pick, Le Grand Cru, finished out of the money in 6th. Superfecta went 2-1-9-7.
Not a very good start for 2010, our bankroll has fallen to $4.10. We will supplement it with an additional $10.00 to support our new wagering strategy.
Overall Performance 107 races 24 wins (27%) 58 itm (55%)
Turf Sprints 33% itm (in the money)
Turf Routes 71% itm
As we review this we are going to make some adjusments in our wagering strategy. You will recall that we had deployed a "rolling show parlay" strategy, but our results were as volatile as the stock market. We will maintain the same budget allowance of no more than $5.00 per race. However, we will now look at WIN/SHOW wagers on certain races, while staying on budget.
We will post more metrics on Wednesdays as we cull through the data.
Today we look at allowance races at Aqueduct and Gulfstream.
Aqueduct Race 8 {6 furlongs~4 year old Up~Allowance}
Looking at the past performances for this race, there are a few horses in here that could win. We like the Linda Rice trained, Jess Not Jesse (Napravnik / Rice). A decent last out speed number couple with the best workout tab of the group, puts this guy in the driver seat. Montecore (Cohen / Klesaris) has the second highest speed number over the surface and has done well at the distance. No workouts within the last thirty days gives us pause. Ramblinggamblinman (Jara / R. Dutrow) shows a solid speed number at the distance and his workout tab is very strong. He will be a factor. Have You Ever (Luzzi / Jacobson) will be the speed of the group and may hold on for a small piece of the purse. Buddy's Song (Dominguez / Levine) looks good from a jockey-trainer perspective and his workouts are solid. He will be in the race to the finish. Let's play Aqueduct.
$2 WIN / SHOW: #4 Jess Not Jesse
There is NO 10 CENT Superfecta for this race.
Gulfstream Race 7 {1 1/16 mile~Turf~4 year old Up~fillies/mares~Allowance}
A full field of twelve assembles for this race with and additional four "also eligible" horses sitting on the bench waiting to get into the race should any scratches occur. The group of four waiting to gain entry look awfully good and well prepared for this race. This solidly competitive field is a tough one to handicap. Classical Fashion (C. Velasquez / Contessa) looks to have a very slight edge. She shares the highest speed number at the distance with Obsequious (Maragh / Cray) and Blue Hill Bay (Saez / Everett). Where Classical Fashion stands out is with a respectable last out speed number and a strong group of workouts. Toocleverforwords (Castro / McGaughey) looks very solid with a good last out speed number and a good workout tab. Speak Easy Gal (Castellano / Contessa) looks like she will do well with a strong last out speed number, solid race progression, and decent couple of workouts. With Kent Desormeaux in the irons, Flaming Rose (Desormeaux / Coatrieux) cannot be ignored. Desormeaux, in our opinion, is the best turf jockey in the country. Flaming Rose has a nice race progression and is shifting from the all weather surface to turf. Will be a factor. Girl Can Rock (Marquez / Orseno) will be moving up in distance, but seems to be well prepared for this race with a nice race progression and a good workout tab. Let's make a great play at Gulfstream.
$2 SHOW: #3 Classical Fashion
$2 SHOW: #4 Flaming Rose
10 CENT Superfecta: #3 Classical Fashion / #5 Toocleverforwords / #2 Speak Easy Gal, #4 Flaming Rose / #8 Girl Can Rock, #2, #4
Last Sunday's Results
Gulfstream R8. Our pick, Le Grand Cru, finished out of the money in 6th. Superfecta went 2-1-9-7.
Not a very good start for 2010, our bankroll has fallen to $4.10. We will supplement it with an additional $10.00 to support our new wagering strategy.
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