Kentucky Derby 146 Wagering Strategies

 Thursday Strategy Session

KD 146 Wagering Strategy

Despite the lack of fans in this most unusual year, the 2020 Kentucky Derby promises to be a fantastic race to wager and watch. How do we approach it on a "blue collar budget". No need to go crazy like our sports betting brethren, firing a buck ($100), a nickel ($500), or a dime ($1000) at will. Let's go into it modestly, making intelligent picks with a budget of only sixty bucks total. Consider a full spectrum wager strategy for that magnificent 14th race on the card.

Many professional handicapper's have nearly anointed Tiz the Law as the eventual winner. Yes, he is the best of this year's three year-old crop. And should win if he runs his race. Consequently, he should be the key horse in most exotic wagers. Keep in mind he will be seeking his fifth straight win against stiff competition. It is wise to HEDGE a little as you develop your tickets.

Exacta

Set the ticket up with Tiz as the key and then throw in a mid-priced, mid-pack runner, a couple of solid challengers, and a couple of long shot closers. It might look like this.

Tz // A,  B,  C,  D, E

Don't forget to reverse it, putting the others on to and Tiz in the second position. The first-rate handicapper Jerry Jackowitz (jerryjpowerpage.com) has long advised this and has done very well. Both of the above plays will cost $5.00 each.

Trifecta

The trifecta will be a 50 CENT base wager. There are several different ways to construct your tickets given your handicapping prowess. Here are our suggestions:

Tz //  A, B, //  A, B C, D, E, F, G, H

This straightaway wager will cost you a cool $7.00. In addition budget for four Trifecta Box wagers which will cost you $3.00 each for a total of $12.00. Set up a couple of boxes with Tiz the Law and maybe a long shot closer box and one that allows for a stumble by the overwhelming favorite. Have fun with this wager.

Superfecta

Regular readers of this blog know this is our favorite wager and we will do a straight away wager listing those three horses we feel will finish one, two , three, and cost $1.50.

Tz //  A // B  // ALL

Our Lambrakis method ticket might look like this:

Tz  //  A, B  //  A, B, C, D, E  //  A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H

Note that we will use all the horses in our Notable Nine  blog post. This wager will come in at a cost of $4.80.

We will also throw down our much used wager, the 10 CENT Superfecta Box, including Tiz while looking at a few different angles. They might be:

Best Workouts among the entrants. This is somewhat subjective. We will try to determine which have gave a good account of themselves on the track in the past thirty days leading up to KD 146.

Trainer / Jockey combo. This merely represents the win percentage win these trainers and jockey's team up. We just have to determine which horses have a chance. Here is the way the top percentages look by program number.:

18--15--16--9--17--5--1

Top Speed Number given Last Three races:  17--16--18--2

Dollars won per Race:  17--18--4--16. Just divide the horses overall winnings by the number of races he has run.

Long Shot Closers.  Look at the card and see which closers you deem have an excellent chance and throw in a mid-pack off the pace type into your box. This is what we call our Giacomo Play, named after the famed 2005 Kentucky Derby winner. Should the pace collapse it could be the closers and off the pace types that pick up the pieces.

Super High-Five (pentafecta)

If it is on the KD-146 menu, let's play it. After all it is the Derby. We will roll it like this:

Tz  //  A  //  B //  C, D  //  C, D, E, F, G, H

At a cost of $10, this could offer a fantastic pay-out if it cashes.

While this year's Kentucky Derby may not have the substantial handle that normal years have with 150,000 fans under the Twin Spires, it should have some juicy pay outs. Best of Luck to you and may the odds be with you.

It's Kentucky Derby Week

 Utilizing Pro Insights in your Handicapping

Source : Richard Hurt / Full House.

A most unusual Kentucky Derby will go off this Saturday (9/5). It promises to be one of the most heart-stirring Derby's in recent memory, sans the fans. The entire card will be full of exciting races and tantalizing wagering opportunities.

The touts will be out in full-force. The wise-guys will find their Derby horse. The sharps will fire a buck, a nickel, or dime on what they perceive as best value in the race. And most importantly, the expert handicappers for various platforms and tracks will offer up their analysis and opinions for KD 146.

Who should you listen to?  Well, first you should handicap the race yourself and come to a strong opinion. Trust in your own handicapping ability. Use the pros for additional information, analysis and advice.

Speaking of the pros. Just for shites and giggles, We looked at the selections of a number of the professional handicappers to see how they performed last Friday (8/28). For this anecdotal survey of top handicappers we examined the Daily Racing Form's Playbook (drf.com) for that day and jotted down the selections of the pros from Ralph Siraco's Race Day Las Vegas radio program (racedaylasvegas.com).

Both of which have some of the best horse racing handicappers in the country.

We looked at the results from two perspectives, Wins. Who picked winners on this delightful Friday and what price did they pay? Second, how did the dividend play perform. A dividend play is merely a $2.00 show bet on each selection laid out.

Not everyone is capable of handicapping every race at every track on a given day. Sometimes it is fruitful to lean on favored pros in an attempt to build some revenue in your "dividend bank". It also helps you to determine which pros are in the zone and which are slumping. Granted this example is only anecdotal as it covers only one day. Most of these handicappers are superb horse players.

Results of Selections for Friday (10/28/2020)

The DRF team of handicapping aficionados garnerd three winners ($7 / $8 / $3.20) out of thirteen selections for a strike rate of 23%. They combined for a total of $12.80 in the dividend bank which produced a loss of ($13.20).

The Ralph Siraco stable of handicappers only provided one winner ($7.60) out of seven selections for a strike rate of 14%. They provided $8.70 for the dividend bank making a loss of ($5.30).

Which handicappers performed admirably? 

DRF Writer/handicapper, Brad Free, outperformed the entire group of pro handicappers. He selected two winners, going two for two on his Del Mar picks. Free is the author of Handicapping 101, a book that should be on every horse players book shelf. He put $5.90 in the dividend bank. Dan Illman had one winner, but two of three of his selections hit the board at Laurel, tossing in $5.60 in the dividend bank. Mike Beer, dropped $5.80 in the dividend bank as two of three of his selections at Saratoga hit the board.

Marty McGee went 0 for 2 in his Gulfstream selections. Ron Gierkink got flattened at Woodbine with his only selection. Kenny Peck goose egged at Monmouth, though one of his picks was scratched.

The Siraco group (Race Day Las Vegas) fared on par with DRF handicappers. Woodbine handicapper, Ernie Perini scored the only winner shoveling $4.50 into the dividend bank. Richard Eng, handicapper and author of the book, Horse Racing for Dummies, provided another $2.10 for the dividend bank. While ace handicapper, Jerry Jackowitz dropped $2.10 into the dividend bank.

Bomber Brad, Trip Note Pro's, and Southern California handicapper, John Lindo, all came up empty with their selections.

Takeaway

Have good confidence in your own handicapping ability. Use the pros and experts for high quality guidance and analysis that you may have missed. There are a number of great handicappers out there. Use them as a resource as you handicap future cards.

Best of luck on your KD 146 handicapping and picks.