A Rebellious Superfecta Sunday

 A fabulous Oaklawn card draws to a Kentucky Derby prep race in the Rebel.

Oaklawn Park Race 11 {Rebel Stakes~G2~1 1/16 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A great group of thirteen will go to the gate in this Derby points race.

Past Performances used: DRF Formulator.

There is plenty of speed to create a strong pace. The field is evenly divided between those that like to be forwardly placed and those that like to come off the pace. Five will try the Oaklawn track for the first time; the rest have experience over it. Three will stretch out to this distance. All have been well prepped along the Derby trail. It should be a fantastic race on this Superfecta Sunday.

#3 Sandman (C. Torres / M. Casse) is the deserved favorite with a beautiful four race progression in terms of speed figs. He holds the second highest (tie) last out speed number and one fine workout. This guy should track and close gallantly into the pace. He loves the dirt, distance, and track. A son of Tapit, he is 66% in the money from six starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#13 Tiztastic (J. Ortiz / Asmussen) is another tracker up to the challenge. He holds the fourth highest last out speed number and three solid peaking workouts. This lad is another lover of the dirt, distance, and track. He is on a six-race speed figure progression. A son of Tiz the Law, he is 83% in the money from six starts.

#9 Smoken Wicked (Gaffalione / Stewart) will stretch out to this distance. He will strive for his fourth win in a row. This colt shares the second highest last out speed number and three superb workouts. He should be part of the speed crew on the front-end. A son of Bobby's Wicked One, he is 75% in the money from eight starts.

#11 Speed King (Bejarano / Moquett) will provide some turb-speed to the pace. He comes in with the second highest last out speed number and and two strong peaking workouts. This guy relishes the dirt, distance, and surface. A son of Volatile, he is 100% in the money from three starts.

Other Wagering Interests

#1 Coal Battle (J. Vargas / Briley) will be seeking his fourth win in a row. He comes in having doubled up his Beyer speed fig in his last two. This guy has the tactical speed to adapt to the pace. It can be said he is undefeated on the dirt, at the distance, and over the track. A son of Coal Front, he has a win rate of 100% from three starts.

#5 Madaket Road (I. Ortiz / Baffert) comes in from Santa Anita stretching out to the distance. He has progressively improved his speed numbers in every start. This colt will be part of the tracker pack. He earned a respectable last out speed number and two fine workouts. A son of Quality Road, he is 100% in the money from three starts.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#3 Sandman  +  #13 Tiztastic  +  #9 Smoken Wicked  +  #11 Speed King.

10 CENT Superfecta Straight ($8.00)

#3 Sandman  /  #13 Tiztastic,  #9 Smoken Wicked  /  #13,  #9,  #11 Speed King,  #1 Coal Battle,  #5 Madaket Road  /  ALL.

May all your Superfecta Sunday tickets cash!!!

 

It's Kentucky Derby Week

 Utilizing Pro Insights in your Handicapping

Source : Richard Hurt / Full House.

A most unusual Kentucky Derby will go off this Saturday (9/5). It promises to be one of the most heart-stirring Derby's in recent memory, sans the fans. The entire card will be full of exciting races and tantalizing wagering opportunities.

The touts will be out in full-force. The wise-guys will find their Derby horse. The sharps will fire a buck, a nickel, or dime on what they perceive as best value in the race. And most importantly, the expert handicappers for various platforms and tracks will offer up their analysis and opinions for KD 146.

Who should you listen to?  Well, first you should handicap the race yourself and come to a strong opinion. Trust in your own handicapping ability. Use the pros for additional information, analysis and advice.

Speaking of the pros. Just for shites and giggles, We looked at the selections of a number of the professional handicappers to see how they performed last Friday (8/28). For this anecdotal survey of top handicappers we examined the Daily Racing Form's Playbook (drf.com) for that day and jotted down the selections of the pros from Ralph Siraco's Race Day Las Vegas radio program (racedaylasvegas.com).

Both of which have some of the best horse racing handicappers in the country.

We looked at the results from two perspectives, Wins. Who picked winners on this delightful Friday and what price did they pay? Second, how did the dividend play perform. A dividend play is merely a $2.00 show bet on each selection laid out.

Not everyone is capable of handicapping every race at every track on a given day. Sometimes it is fruitful to lean on favored pros in an attempt to build some revenue in your "dividend bank". It also helps you to determine which pros are in the zone and which are slumping. Granted this example is only anecdotal as it covers only one day. Most of these handicappers are superb horse players.

Results of Selections for Friday (10/28/2020)

The DRF team of handicapping aficionados garnerd three winners ($7 / $8 / $3.20) out of thirteen selections for a strike rate of 23%. They combined for a total of $12.80 in the dividend bank which produced a loss of ($13.20).

The Ralph Siraco stable of handicappers only provided one winner ($7.60) out of seven selections for a strike rate of 14%. They provided $8.70 for the dividend bank making a loss of ($5.30).

Which handicappers performed admirably? 

DRF Writer/handicapper, Brad Free, outperformed the entire group of pro handicappers. He selected two winners, going two for two on his Del Mar picks. Free is the author of Handicapping 101, a book that should be on every horse players book shelf. He put $5.90 in the dividend bank. Dan Illman had one winner, but two of three of his selections hit the board at Laurel, tossing in $5.60 in the dividend bank. Mike Beer, dropped $5.80 in the dividend bank as two of three of his selections at Saratoga hit the board.

Marty McGee went 0 for 2 in his Gulfstream selections. Ron Gierkink got flattened at Woodbine with his only selection. Kenny Peck goose egged at Monmouth, though one of his picks was scratched.

The Siraco group (Race Day Las Vegas) fared on par with DRF handicappers. Woodbine handicapper, Ernie Perini scored the only winner shoveling $4.50 into the dividend bank. Richard Eng, handicapper and author of the book, Horse Racing for Dummies, provided another $2.10 for the dividend bank. While ace handicapper, Jerry Jackowitz dropped $2.10 into the dividend bank.

Bomber Brad, Trip Note Pro's, and Southern California handicapper, John Lindo, all came up empty with their selections.

Takeaway

Have good confidence in your own handicapping ability. Use the pros and experts for high quality guidance and analysis that you may have missed. There are a number of great handicappers out there. Use them as a resource as you handicap future cards.

Best of luck on your KD 146 handicapping and picks.

Good Record Keeping will Elevate your Handicapping

Thursday Strategy Session

Good Record Keeping Helps Elevate Your Handicapping

Recording your plays in horse racing is essential to identifying your strengths and weaknesses in your wagering. Good record keeping can lead to future success. Let's run down some of the components that you should include in your record keeping whether you apply them to a spreadsheet or old school notebook.

Components of Record Keeping

• Brand of Past Performances (Equibase, Daily Racing Form, Bris-Net, or other)
• Track (Belmont, Churchill Downs, Santa Anita, etc.)
• Race Number.
• Race Conditions (Maiden Claiming, Allowance, Stakes, etc.)
• Distance (Mile, 6 Furlongs, etc.)
• Surface (Dirt, synthetic, Turf)
• Age (3 year-old, 4 year-old Up, etc.)
• Saddle Cloth Number (#4, #8, #12, etc.)--generally the saddle cloth number will match up with the post position, but in some cases your horse might have a different post position. Make a note of it.
• Name of wagering interest (horse name)
• Parimutuel Investment (wager placed).  You should have a column for your W/P/S wagers made as well as columns for your Exotics (Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, and Pentafecta).

If you are a multi-race player or contest player you may devise a different record keeping worksheet. This would enable you to compare and contrast your plays for each race in the sequence.

Compiling the Data

It is important that you record all results from your wagering activity at the end of each race day. No matter the format you are using (spreadsheet or notebook). This enables you to maintain your records efficiently and allows you to look back to previous days' results to make intelligent wagering decisions going forward.

Whether you are a handicapper that plays everyday or a weekend warrior, maintaining good records sets you up for analyzing the data, knowing your costs, and should you make a nice score, for the taxman.

Analyzing your Records

Once you have recorded a given amount of data, say a business quarter (three months), dive in with analysis. Maybe you have made some nice scores with 6 furlong events. Or you have done exceeding well with most races on the Turf. Moving forward with your wagering activity play to your strengths. Conversely, maybe you have done miserably on 6 1/2 furlong races. It might be wise to take a pass on these races until you derive more specific handicapping angles to improve your chances to cash a ticket.

Good record keeping combining all the components above can help you to determine your handicapping edge. At the same time you can begin to improve on your weaknesses to elevate your all around handicapping.

Have fun watching and wagering the races, but remember to take some time to record and analyze your plays in order to improve your handicapping.

Superfecta Sunday at Santa Anita

First, Congratulations to Jim Benes (Illinois, USA) on winning the handicapping crown in the 2013 Daily Racing Form / National Thoroughbred Racing Association National Handicapping Championship.  Nice pay day!!!

Today we look towards California for a simple six furlong Superfecta Sunday race.

Santa Anita Race 8 {6 furlongs~4 year old Up~fillies/mares~Allowance}
An equally matched field of eight will go to the gate.  This race comes up with a ton of speed.  The gal that can back off the pedal a little and wait for the pace to develop has the best chance of winning it.  We will attempt to fashion a winning 10 CENT Superfecta box ticket utilizing four that have a chance for victory.

#2 Splendid Fortune (Talamo / Baffert) is coming off an extended layoff holding the highest last out speed number as well as the highest speed number at the distance.  She was working a two race progression before the layoff and has put in four sensational workouts in the last 30 days.  She is a speedster that resort to a tracking running style if need be.

#6 Twelve Folds (M. Garcia / Machowsky) looks ready to take another step forward with the fourth highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and two solid works.  She could find herself in a pressing mode ready to challenge in the stretch.  She is our Bronze Horseshoe selection.
$2 SHOW.

#1 Egg Drop (Gomez / Mitchell) has proven herself before after an extended layoff.  She has been away for a time, but holds the third highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and four superb workouts.  She could be the big beneficiary of an exceptionally hot pace.

#5 Royal Tiger (Bejarano / Eurton) could surprise with a couple of decent last out speed numbers, a three race progression, and two athletic works.  She appears to have the best tactical speed to make a good run of it.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#2 Splendid Fortune  +  #6 Twelve Folds  +  #1 Egg Drop  +  #5 Royal Tiger.



Stakes Saturday Results
Gulfstream Park R10.  Holy Bull--G3.  Our place/show pick, Frac Daddy, finished 6th.  Our show pick, Clearly Now, finished 3rd for show money of $5.70.
Superfecta went 7-1-3-10.
Bankroll gains a bit to settle at $6.49.