Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Fall Racing to Start This Week

I am excited about the Fall Racing season leading up to the Breeder's Cup on the first weekend in November. The following meets open up this week to start the Fall season:

Hawthorne Park (Chicago). Opens Thursday (10/1).
Oak Tree at Santa Anita (California). Opens Wednesday (9/30).
Turf Paradise (Phoenix). Opens Friday (10/2).

I realize other tracks have opened or will be opening their fall meets, but these are my favorites in the fall.

Horsecents Analytics will have posts published Thursday through Sunday each week during the fall horse racing season.

What is a "rolling show parlay"?? As I mentioned in an earlier post, as we move forward through the racing season a rolling show parlay will be deployed as a wagering strategy. With this method the race is handicapped and we take what we feel is the best horse in the race and place a $2.00 SHOW wager on it. As we move through the season and hopefully begin to build our bankroll, we bump up the value of the wager. For example, in week one we used the $2.00 amount. If we had been super successful we would have bumped it to $3.00 for week two and incrementally increase it by a buck each successful week.
There will be times when we might place a show on a second or third choice if there is better value in that wagering interest.

Horse Racing Week One Results.
Well, we were not too successful in week one, but our bankroll is re-fortified and we will be ready to roll.
(9/27) Monmouth Race 9--Big Brown Stakes. Our horse, Bunker Hill took 2nd earning us $2.60. There was no superfecta as a horse (Doc's Friend) scratched reducing the field to five.
(9/27) Arlington Race 6--Virginia Tarra IL Owners Stakes. Our horse, Never Retreat finished 3rd earning us $4.00. The superfecta results were 4-1-7-5.
Our Blue Collar Bankroll stands at $15.00.
Fall racing starts this week and we will be ready!!

Sunday, September 27, 2009

A Big Brown Sunday

Today is a nice day for a minor stakes race honoring Big Brown. This will take us out to lovely Monmouth Park in New Jersey. Then we will look at another small stakes race on the Turf at beautiful Arlington Park in Illinois.

Monmouth Park Race 9 {Big Brown~1 1/16 mile~3 year olds~70K Stakes}
This race has lots of speed and there are a couple here that could sneak at win at the front end. Doc's Friend and Perfectly Pitched will be on the front with Percursor near the front ready to pounce. Bunker Hill will roll closing from the rear of this compact six horse field. With all this speed in the race my bet is on Bunker Hill to win this one. Lets play it this way:

$2 SHOW: Bunker Hill

10 CENT Superfecta: 6 / 4 / 1 / 2,8,3

Arlington Park Race 6 {Virginia Tara IL Owners Stakes~1 1/16 mile~Turf~3 yo Up}
Today is the final day of this years meet. Rain held off yesterday and today looks like it will be a cool dry 77 degree day in Chicago. This race has a good crop of quality turfers. Closeout is the class of the field, but without any wicked speed, I'm going to take a stand against her and go with Never Retreat who will have top jockey, James Graham in the irons. A wonderful day for a great Arlington play:

$2 SHOW: Never Retreat

10 CENT Superfecta: 7 / 3 / 5 / 1

Saturday (9/26/09) Results
Not such a good day for our blue collar bankroll.
At Laurel in Race 11 our filly #10 Sweet Goodbye finished 7th. Doh! There is no 10 cent superfecta at Laurel.
In the Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway Hold Me Back could do no better than 6th. The Super was 7-9-3-6.
Our bankroll is down to $2.50 so will re-fortify with an additional $10.
Lets hope for a successful BIG BROWN Sunday.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Two Stakes for Saturday

Saturdays are always the most exciting for horse racing enthusiasts. This is the day on which there are always a number of quality stakes races. These races are always very competitive where the best horses are racing. Today we look at two fabulous races, the Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway and the Maryland Million Classic at Laurel. I love Saturdays for their adrenaline inducing fun.

Turfway Race 13 {Kentucky Cup Classic [1 1/8 mile~All Weather~Stakes]}
This could be a competitive race, but there is one exceptional standout and that is Hold Me Back. His chief challengers will be Dubious Miss and Sligovitz. All three horses have had superb workouts leading up to this race. Hold Me Back is the top in class here. He will be closing fast. Both Dubious Miss and Sligovitz are coming down in distance having run a 1 3/16 mile race in their last. Sligovitz is shipping in from Woodbine (Canada) where he has been a poly monster. Lets Play it this way:

$2 SHOW: #2 Hold Me Back

10 CENT Superfecta: 2 / 9 / 6 / 3,7,4

Laurel Race 11 {Maryland Million Classic [1 1/8 mile~3 yo and Up~Stakes]}
There are two standouts in this race. Broadway Producer and Sweet Goodbye are looking best in this stakes race. The defending champ, Cuba, looks good and has trained well leading up to the race, but I'm not so sure he is in peak condition. I'm going to go with the fillie, Sweet Goodbye. Remember potential horse of the year, Rachel Alexander in the Preakness earlier this year? At the risk of being presumptuous I believe Sweet Goodbye will handle these boys just fine. By no means am I comparing her to Rachel who is in a class by herself. Sweet Goodbye has the speed numbers and the workouts to go to the lead and hold it to the wire. Let's roll it out this way:

$2 SHOW: #10 Sweet Goodbye

10 CENT Superfecta: 10,1 / 10,1 / 2,6 / 2,6,8,3,7

Thursday (9/25) Results.
Kaweah Princess won at Fairplex and High Cry scratched out of the Belmont Race.
We picked up $3.60 for the Show on Kaweah Princess.
Belmont results were: #1 High Cry scratched. No wager placed.
Fairplex results were: #9 Kaweah Princess placed 1st. Order of finish for super 9-7-4-5.
Our Blue Collar bankroll is now at $6.80. Perhaps we can build on that today.

Friday, September 25, 2009

East Coast to West Coast

Well, we did not do so good yesterday. We are back at it again today, Friday, September 25, 2009 with two seemingly competitive races from East Coast to West Coast.

Belmont Park Race 9 {1 1/16 miles~Turf~fillies and Mares~3 year old and up~NY~Allowance}
This is an extremely tough one to handicap as any one of four of these gals can win it. I think High Cry will win if she can get a nice pressing trip and have enough in the tank to pounce and win. Lets make the play:

$2 SHOW: #1 High Cry

10 cent Superfecta: 1 / 5 / 4,6 / 4,6,2

Fairplex Race 11 { Palomares Stakes~1 1/16 miles~fillies~3 year old }
Another competitive race. Any one of three horses can win this one Summer Peace, Jehan, and Kaweah Princess. The edge should go to the Jerry Hollendorfer trained Kaweah Princess. Lets roll it out in this manner:

$2 SHOW: #9 Kaweah Princess

10 CENT Superfecta: 9 / 3 / 6 / 5, 1A

Thursday, September 24, 2009 Results
Both of my show horses finished out of the money. No Superfecta at Belmont.
Arlington Park Race 7 #6 Holiday Tap finished 6th. Superfecta finish was 4-2-8-1
Belmont Park Race 8 #9 West Gold finished 4th.

Building a Bigger Bankroll ?
Not at this time. Based on our cash management of only $5 max per race, we are down to $5.40.
With some racing luck we will have a good Friday.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

America's Two Best Tracks Today

Brand New Horse racing Blog Launched Today!

With the launch of this blog I hope to handicap at lease two races a day with a Blue Collar Budget. As we ride towards the Breeders Cup the first weekend in November 2009, hopefully those of you that read the blog can assist me in my stretch run towards racing success.

First, my "investment philosophy". This is not a get quick rich scheme, but hopefully a nice Blue Collar Bankroll build over time. The budget is only a maximum of $5.00 per handicapped race. Since I am a little risk averse, I employ a "rolling show parlay" [more on this in a subsequent blog] and ten cent superfectas.

As we roll through the backstretch I will impart my (limited) knowledge on various handicapping techniques and angles. Oh, in the interest of full disclosure, I pull the past performances off of Drf.com and Brisnet.com. These comprise my races for analysis for each day. Remember we are on a Blue Collar Budget.

Let's go. Giddy up!

Belmont Park Race 8 {6 furlongs~3 year old and up~NY~Optional Claiming}

This looks to be a very competitive race at the big sandy. It looks like a possible battle for Africaner and Executive Search at the wire. West Gold looks like he might make a run of it with improving speed numbers through the last four races. Here is the way I will play this one:

SHOW: #9 West Gold.

10 CENT Superfecta: 1,7 / 1,7 / 5,9 / 5,9,4,2,6

Arlington Park Race 7 {1 mile~fillies and mares~3 year old and up~Allowance}

Another competitive race for today. Have to give the edge to Holiday Tap with James Graham in the irons who is one of the best turf course riders in the country. Both Instant Style (Emigh / Springer) and Giddyup Gadfly (Castanon / Reed) will be right there at the wire also. Away we play:

SHOW: #6 Holiday Tap

10 CENT Superfecta: 6,8 / 6,8 / 1,3 / 1,3,4

Hopefully we will do well and begin to build our Blue Collar Bankroll.

Best of Luck to you!!!!