Superfecta Sunday at Golden Gate

With the Kentucky Derby in our rearview mirror, we take a look at a very nice Turf sprint in the city by the bay.

Golden Gate Fields Race 8 {5 Furlongs~TURF~3 year-old Up~Fillies/Mares~Allowance }

A solid field of ten ladies will step onto the grass in this allowance feature. There is sufficient speed to give it a fast pace. Speed figs are very close among this group. They all have a chance to pull of the victory in this race. Our task is to string together a winning 10 CENT Superfecta Box ticket.

#10 Marilyn's Smile (Couton / McCanna) is coming off a modest layoff, but appears ready to fire. She holds the highest last out speed number and has put in four strong workouts. A daughter of Smiling Tiger, she should track the pace closely and spring into the stretch. This gal is our Bronze Horseshoe selection.
$2 SHOW.

#8 Dearborn (Ocasio / March) should challenge with the second highest last out speed number at a route and four dynamite workouts. This gal comes up from Santa Anita where she raced well. A daughter of Malibu Moon, she should be forwardly placed.

#7 Gotham Desire (J. Hernandez / Moger) will contend with the fourth highest last out speed number and three hearty workouts. She posts the highest speed fig over the surface. A daughter of Gotham City, she should be rolling late.

#4 Classy Atlantic (F. Alvarado / Specht) should be in the mix with some solid last out speed numbers and three robust workouts. This gal should be on or near the lead ready to roll. A daughter of Stormy Atlantic, she should relish a move back to the Turf.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#10 Marilyn's Smile  +  #8 Dearborn  +  #7 Gotham Desire  +  #4 Classy Atlantic.




Stakes Saturday Results
Churchill Downs Race 12.  KENTUCKY DERBY 145--G1.  Our first pick, Game Winner, finished 5th.  Our second pick, War of Will, finished 7th.  Our third pick, Tacitus, finished 3rd for show money of $5.60.
Exacta went 20-13.
Trifecta went 20-13-8
Superfecta went 20-13-8-5.
Pentafecta (Super Hi-5) went 20-13-8-5-16.
Bankroll gets obliterated, dropping to $14.86.

KENTUCKY DERBY 2018

This year's edition of the greatest two minutes in sports, Kentucky Derby 144, contains a deeply stacked field. This talented field will be heard about in the years ahead right into the breeding shed. A top flight group of twenty will enter the gate late this afternoon to the cheers of a capacity crowd.

Churchill Downs Race 12 {KENTUCKY DERBY~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

What a supreme field for this years run for the roses. Four millionaires are represented. There is plentiful speed to maintain a very fast pace which could aid those coming off the pace is evident. More likely those that keep close to the pace without doing them in will be aided. Speed numbers are fairly close with the exception of Morning Line favorite, #7 Justify.  As of this writing, he is the second favorite in the wagering across the pond at 9-2. The favorite there is of course, the boys from Ballydoyle entrant #14 Mendelssohn at 4-1. Both very fair and playable odds. We believe that the race will be between the two champs #6 Good Magic and the aforementioned Mendelssohn. Here are our picks for KD144.

#6 Good Magic (J. Ortiz / C. Brown) is ready to run the race of his career. The champ (BC-juvenile) will find himself tracking the pace, build-up on the backstretch, and hit the stretch running his heart out. Trainer, Chad Brown, has worked this guy to build stamina and endurance for his two starts this year. He usually puts his charges through solid customary half mile works. A son of Curlin, he is 100% in the money from his six career starts. He holds the fourth highest overall speed number.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#14 Mendelssohn (Moore / A. O'Brien) will challenge from a closer to the pace position. His impressive win in the UAE Derby, winning by 18 lengths, shows that distance will not be a problem for him. That race earned him the second highest speed number among this field. A son of Scat Daddy he will be seeking his fourth win in a row. Another champion, winner of the BC juvenile Turf, he travels well and should be primed an ready for his Derby run.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#5 Audible (Castellano / Pletcher) should contend as the Florida Derby winner. He holds the fifth highest over all speed number and has put in three strong peaking workouts. This lad will be pursuing his fifth win in a row and holds a 100% in the money record from five career starts. A son of Into Mischief, he is projected to take up a close tracking position and spring into the stretch.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

While we feel #7 Justify is a fearsome colt with the highest speed figs of any in this field, we feel the pace flow may be too much for this lightly raced lad. We will use him on top in a saver exacta along with our top choices. We are looking to beef up the exotics with a few long shots.

#11 Bolt d'Oro (Espinoza / Ruis) should be in the mix with the third highest last out speed number, a three race progression, and two superb workouts. This lad can be expected to take another step forward in the third race of his form cycle. A son of Medaglia d'Oro, he is another that is 100% in the money from six career starts. He has a chance to win.

#18 Vino Rosso (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) will shoot out of the auxiliary gate taking up a tracking position close to the first tier of runners. He is the last out winner of the Wood Memorial up at Aqueduct. This son of Curlin should handle the distance and show improvement once again.

#8 Lone Sailor (Graham / Amoss) is in tip-top shape for his Derby run. He ran a game second in the Louisiana Derby last out where the racing light bulb clicked on. This lad has a last out speed figure that competes with this elite group of 3 year-olds and has put in three powerful peaking workouts. A son of Majestic Warrior, he has a closing kick that will match any of these fellas.

#20 Combatant (Santana / Asmussen) just made it into the field after a few defections of horses with more points. His post positon doesn't appear to be problematic as he enjoys coming from off the pace. Trainer, Asmussen works his horses patiently and builds them into fine racing animals. This guy is no exception. One of four sons of the late Scat Daddy, he is one of few with a victory over the Churchill dirt.

The Plays

$1 Exacta Wheel  #6, #14  / #5, #8, #11.

50 CENT Trifecta Box  #6  +  #14  +  #5.

$1 Superfecta  #6 Good Magic  /  #14 Mendelssohn  /  #5 Audible, #8 Lone Sailor, #11 Bolt d'Oro  /  #18 Vino Rosso,  #20 Combatant.

$1 Pentafecta (Super High Five)  #6  /  #14  /  #5  /  #11  /  #8, #18, #20.

Last Superfect Sunday (4/29) Results

Belmont Park R8.  The License Fee.  We just missed on our 10 CENT Superfecta box play capturing three of the four wagering interests required to cash. Superfecta went 7-1-2-3.

Our Bronze Horseshoe selection, Stormy Victoria [FR], finished 2nd for show money of $1.10.

Bankroll dips to $225.70.

  

Kentucky Derby 142

We are approximately three hours away from the greatest two minutes in sports, the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Thus far it has been a great day of racing. Now comes the time to predict the outcome of the run for the roses.

Churchill Downs Race 12 {The Kentucky Derby~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year old Up~Graded Stakes}

A high quality field of twenty, what we hope are happy and healthy horses, will go to the gate in the most magnificent race of the year. There is some speed and forwardly placed types that could control a moderate pace. It should be a great race for all handicappers.

#5 Gun Runner (Geroux / Asmussen) may be sitting on the best race of his young career. He looked every bit the professional when schooled in the paddock the other day. He comes into the race with a couple of very good last out speed numbers, a three race progression, and four superior peaking workouts. Trainer, Steve Asmussen, knows how to get his charges ready for a big race. This lad is four for four over a fast track. This son of Candy Ride [ARG] should track the pace closely looking for an opening to bust a move coming into the stretch. He appears to be sitting on a huge effort.
$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#2 Sudden Breaking News (L. Quinonez / Von Hemel) could be the exacta bomber this year with the fourth highest (3-way tie) last out speed number, a two race progression, and two lustrious workouts. Yes, he is a closer, but has shown the capability of being a little closer to the pace when racing as a two year-old. This son of Mineshaft is 87% in the money from eight career starts. He should be coming on strong as they swing into the stretch.
$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#17 Mor Spirit (Stevens / Baffert) looks ready to strike with a couple of very fine last out speed numbers sharing the fourth highest. He has put in two speedy workouts prepping for this race. This lad is one of only three in the field with a 100% in the money record. A son of Eskendreya, he should be tracking the pace ready to make his move at the top of the stretch.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#13 Nyquist (Gutierrez / O'Neill) will be the favorite as he was the two year old champion and is undefeated in seven career starts. This guy also shares the fourth highest last out speed number and has put in three stamina producing workouts. A millionaire son of Uncle Mo he should be pressing the pace of the probable leader, Danzing Candy. It is not inconceivable that he pulls off the victory.

#9 Destin (Castellano / Pletcher) should be a serious contender with the second highest last out speed number, a four race progression, and four high quality workouts. This guy will be striving for his third win in a row. A son of Giant's Causeway, he should be forwardly placed near the pace setters. He should hit the pedal going into the stretch.

$1 Superfecta

#5 Gun Runner  /  #2 Sudden Breaking News  /  #17 Mor Spirit  /  #13 Nyquist  /  #9 Destin.



Furlong Friday Results
Churchill Downs R7.  Eight Belles Stakes--G2.  Our pick, Nickname, finished 3rd for show money of $2.60.
Superfecta went 5-6-8-4.
Bankroll gets shaved by four dimes to settle at 6.26. We will supplement with a couple of Hamilton's for KD 142 day.

Kentucky Derby 2015

It is the glorious first day in May.  All the prep races are now a distant memory. It is time for some of the very best three year-olds to strut their stuff onto the track for the 141st Kentucky Derby. It is time to etch the winners name in history when they head toward the wire.

Churchill Downs Race 11 {KENTUCKY DERBY~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A nearly full field of nineteen will make the start in the run for the roses. The race has plenty of speed and will go through quick fractions. It those will stamina and endurance that will make the trip successfully. None have gone this distance.  The speed numbers are all roughly comparable. It should be one of the most dramatic and exciting edition of the Kentucky Derby.

We will take a stab at the dollar Superfecta (No 10 CENT Superfecta is offered on Oaks and Derby days) as well as the dollar HI-5. Here are the picks:

#8 Dortmund (M. Garcia / Baffert) will come out of the gate seeking his seventh straight victory. He holds the second highest last out speed number, a four race progression, and two stellar workouts.  This son of Big Brown should be on or near the lead as they head into the first turn. With a good trip he should find the winners circle.
$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#2 Carpe Diem (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) should challenge by acquiring a ground saving trip along the rail.  He holds a couple of very good last out speed numbers scoring a victory in each. This lad is working a three race progression and has put in two robust workouts. This son of the legendary Giant's Causeway should take another step forward after his victory in the Bluegrass last out.
$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#6 Mubtaahij (Soumillion / de Kock) will making his first North American start for world class connections. He ran to a solid victory in the UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai. This guy has trained nicely up at beautiful Arlington Park before coming to Kentucky. This son of Dubawi [IRE] should easily cover this ground. He is the only one in the field who has a victory at close to the Derby distance (only a half furlong off). Traffic willing, he should find a nice tracking position and move smoothly into the stretch.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#18 American Pharoah (Espinoza / Baffert) could go off as the favorite after his spellbinding victory in the Arkansas Derby last out.  He holds a couple of very good last out speed numbers, a seven race progression, and two dynamite peaking workouts. This son of Pioneer of the Nile will shoot out of the gate seeking the lead. With the scratch of El Kabeir, he will be coming out of the seventeen hole and will need to angle out in similar fashion as 1982 Derby winner Gato del Sol to grab the lead. He is fast enough to accomplish that task, but it may take some energy out of him for the stretch run.

#19 Upstart (J. Ortiz / Violette) will be a factor with the fourth highest last out speed number, a three race progression, and two bullet workouts. This son of Flatter should track the pace closely ready to enjoin the trackers and closers heading for home. His last outing was a good second in the Florida Derby.

#12 International Star (Mena / Maker) should be in the mix with a couple of good last out speed numbers, a six race progression, and three athletic peaking workouts. It would be a treat for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey to score the Derby victory perhaps capping a storied career as breeders and owners. This son of Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus will be in the group of trackers and closers as they head around the track.

#3 Materiality (Castellano / Pletcher) should contend with the third highest (tie) last out speed number, a three race progression, and three superb peaking workouts. This son of Preakness and Belmont stakes winner, Afleet Alex, did not run as a two year-old which is one of those pesky Derby curses. He appears ready to attempt to break that stigma with a forwardly placed run.

One Dollar Superfecta

#8 Dortmund  /  #2 Carpe Diem  /  #6 Mubtaahij  /  #18 American Pharoah, #19 Upstart, #12 International Star, #3 Materiality.

One Dollar Super Hi-5

#8 Dortmund  /  #2 Carpe Diem  / #6 Mubtaahij  /  #18 American Pharoah  /  #19 Upstart, #12 International Star, #3 Materiality.



Friday's Results
Churchill Downs R6.  Edgewood--G3.  Our pick, Quality Rocks, finished 2nd for show money of $2.40.
We dumped our Superfecta play due to the scratch of Sunset Glow. Superfecta went 6-1-5-2.
Bankroll slithers up to $7.65.
We will supplement with a couple of Hamiltons for todays Big race, KD 141. 

Friday at Churchill

Kentucky Derby 141 is tomorrow.  Today we take a look at a terrific Turf contest.

Churchill Downs Race 6 {Edgewood~G3~1 1/16 mile~TURF~3 year-old~Fillies~Graded Stakes}
A talented group of seven fillies will hit the green in this mid-card feature. It comes a little light on speed, though there are three forwardly placed types that could keep the pace rolling forward.  The speed figs are relatively close. It should be a good Turf race.

#1 Quality Rocks (Lezcano / Mott) appears to have the edge with the highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and four solid workouts. She is coming off a brief freshening and should be ready to roll. This gal will be forwardly placed seeking to strike in the stretch.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#4 My Year Is A Day [FR] (J. Velazquez / Motion) will present a mighty challenge in her first North American start.  She raced well in her native France securing an 83% in the money record from six starts. This gal has the potential to achieve the victory after a lengthy layoff.

#6 Feathered (Castellano / Pletcher) will hitting the grass for the first time, but should acquit herself nicely. She has a couple of decent last out speed numbers over the dirt and has put in one robust workout. This gal does own the highest speed number at the distance, albeit over the dirt. She should be a factor with her tracking style.

#5 Lady Zuzu (L. Saez / Lukas) should contend with the second highest last out speed number at a longer route, a two race progression, and two hearty workouts. She should be close to the pace ready to pounce.

Superfecta
During the next two days the Superfecta wager is a minimum of $1.00. We will give it a run.

#1 Quality Rocks  /  #4 My Year Is A Day [FR]  /  #6 Feathered  /  #5 Lady Zuzu.



Thursday's Results
Belmont Park R3.  Allowance.  Our first pick, Lady Kreesa, won (1st) for win money of $2.80 and show money of $2.10.  Our second pick, Sweetpollypurebrd, finished 2nd for show money of $1.15.
We scuttled our 10 CENT superfecta play due to a scratch. Superfecta went 5-9-8-6.
Bankroll gets a rise to $8.25.

KENTUCKY DERBY 140

We waded through all of the Derby prep races and now it is time for the big dance, The Kentucky Derby.

Churchill Downs Race 11 {Kentucky Derby 140~G1~1 1/4 miles~3 year old~Stakes}
A fabulous field of nineteen will go to the gates for the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby, the most prestigious race in America.  Boy, howdy, is there speed and forwardly placed types in this edition of the race.  All have not yet ventured out at this distance.  Nearly all have raced well in their prep races.  Most have run diligently in their works.  They all appear ready to run the greatest two minutes in all of sports.

#20 Wicked Strong (Maragh / Jerkens) will have a legitimate pace to run into with his nice tracking/closing running style.  He holds the second highest last out speed number, a three race progression, and four stamina enriching, peaking workouts. Winner of the Wood Memorial.  This son of Hard Spun appears ready to make a victorious run of KD 140.
$2 WIN / $3 PLACE / $4 SHOW.

#5 California Chrome (V. Espinoza / Sherman) will not give up easily and is clearly the horse to beat.  He holds the highest last out speed number and has put in two strong workouts.  This son of Lucky Pulpit will join the front running group and should dispatch them efficiently. He had a smashing victory in the Santa Anita Derby.  With four wins in a row he will need to dig deep to hold off those seeking to catch him in the stretch.
$2 PLACE / $3 SHOW.

#6 Samraat (J. Ortiz / Violette) should challenge with his versatile running style.  The handsome son of Noble Causeway holds the fourth highest (tie) last out speed number, a three race progression, and two endurance producing workouts. This guy finished second in the Wood Memorial.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#10 Wildcat Red (Saez / Garoffalo) should be in the hunt sharing the fourth highest last out speed number and two hearty workouts.  A son of D'Wildcat, is 100% in the money from seven starts. This lad was second in the Florida Derby.  He should be one of the forwardly placed types moving on through the stretch.

#15 Tapiture (Santana / Asmussen) could be in the mix with a couple of very good last out speed numbers and three credible peaking workouts.  This son of Tapit is on the cusp of another improvement while tracking the pace closely.  He holds the highest speed number over the Churchill track. In his last, he placed fourth in the Arkansas Derby.

Superfecta
For the purposes of the Kentucky Derby, the Superfecta is one USD.

#20 Wicked Strong  /  #5 California Chrome  /  #6 Samraat  /  #10 Wildcat Red, #15 Tapiture.



Friday's Results
Churchill Downs R11.  Kentucky Oaks--G1.  Our first pick, Untapable, won (1st) for win money of $4.00 and show money of $3.90.  Our second pick, My Miss Sophia, finished 2nd for show money of $4.40.  Our third pick, Sugar Shock, finished 7th.
Mea Culpa, there was no 10 CENT Superfecta.  Superfecta went 13-11-9-4.
Bankroll gets a three buck lift to $27.99.

The California Sun Shines on Two Year Olds

Yesterday (Saturday) was a wonderful and exciting day of stakes races. Today we look at a couple of Two year old stakes races in sunny California. As we look at these "babies" we have to ponder the question: "Will any of these eventually make an appearance on the first Saturday in May at Churchill?" You have to love these races!!

Santa Anita Race 6 {Oak Leaf~1 1/16 mile~fillies~2 year old~Stakes}
This race shapes up to be a nicely competitive race. In these types of races sometimes it comes down to the trainer and the jockey. How well the trainer does with preparing their young charges and how well the jockey handles and calms these green, young athletes. The Sadler trained Pure Class is the horse to beat with solid speed numbers and sharp workouts. The Baffert trained Always a Princess will have Garrett Gomez in the irons and will be a force to be reckoned with. The Hollendorfer trained Softly Singing is well prepared for this race and figures into the mix. I like the filly in the outside post #13 Fairway Road. Trained by Craig Dollase, she will be near the front ready to pounce coming into the turn ready to grab a portion of the cash. Let's take a swing:

$2 SHOW: #13 Fairway Road.
10 CENT Superfecta: 7 / 13 / 8 / 1,4,5

Santa Anita Race 8 {Norfalk~1 1/16 mile~2 year old~Stakes}
Another tremendously exciting race shapes up here. Baffert and Gomez pair up with the odds on favorite Lookin At Lucky. The wise guys do not like this horse for some reason. I do. We may not bank a fortune with this 2 year old, but he is ready. Bafferts charges at the recently ended Del Mar meet were winning at a decent clip. Others that will figure prominently in this race are Seattle Ruler (Garcia / Harrington), Alfarabi (Solis / Harty), Dave in Dixie (Rosario / Sadler), and John Scott (Espinoza / Gaines). Of these Alfarabi looks the most appealing. The Harty trained two year old has already gone a mile and has had superb workouts leading up to this event. Let's have some fun outside our comfort zone:

$2 SHOW: #2 Lookin at Lucky and #3 Alfarabi
10 CENT Superfecta: 2 / 8 / 3 /1,10,11,4

Saturday (10/3) Results
That large sweeping oval, Belmont, delivered for us.
Belmont R8: Our horse, the beautiful, Pure Clan won the race. Superfecta was 3-5-6-7.
Belmont R10: Our horse, Belmont lover, Summer Bird, also won his race. Superfecta was 3-7-4-2.
Our bankroll stayed about the same. We sit on $15.50.