Arkansas Derby Day

 An exciting card in Hot Springs, Arkansas brings us the Arkansas Derby.

Oaklawn Park Race 13 {Arkansas Derby~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A reduced field of eight will go to the gate in this KD 152 points race.

Past Performances:  DRF Formulator.

There is plenty of speed and forwardly placed runners to keep the pace fluid. Speed numbers are fairly close. All but one will be stretching out to this distance. Only two will try the Oaklawn track for the first time. It should be a fantastic race on a great day of racing.

#9 Litmus Test (Arrieta / Baffert) comes in with the fourth highest last out speed number and two solid workouts. He loves the dirt and track. Look for him to be forwardly placed ready for battle in the stretch. A son of Nyquist, he is 66% in the money from six starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#6 Renegde (I. Ortiz / Pletcher) will challenge with the highest last out speed number and three hearty peaking workouts. This guy is the only one in the field that has competed at this distance. He should track and close into a strong pace. A son of Into Mischief, he is 100% in the money from four starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#2 Silent Tactic (C. Torres / M. Casse) has improved his speed figs in his last three starts scoring the second highest last out speed number. One efficient workout aids in his preparation. He is another that will track and close into a swift pace. A son of Tacitus, he is 100% in the money from five starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#5 Taptastic (E. Asmussen / S. Asmussen) could surprise in his second career start. This colt earned a good speed figure winning his maiden race, albeit on wet dirt. He has put in two robust workouts in the last thirty days. Look for him to be part of the tracker pack. A son of Tapit, he looks to maintain that 100%-win rate.

#3 Blackout Time (B. Hernandez / McPeek) come to the race with a decent speed number last out and two dynamite workouts. He should be part of the pack running on the front-end. A son of Not This Time, he is 75% in the money from four starts.

#4 Bricklin (J. Torres / Brisset) has hit the board in his last two races. Couple that with an excellent workout tab of three works. He holds a win over the Oaklawn track. This guy has the tactical speed to adapt to the pace. Another son of Nyquist, he is 60% in the money from five starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#9 Litmus Test  ///  #6 Renegade,  #2 Silent Tactic,  #5 Taptastic,  #3 Blackout Time,  #4 Bricklin.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#6,  #2,  #5,  #3,  #4  ///  #9 Litmus Test.

As we get closer to that First Saturday in May, best of luck with all your Stakes Saturday wagers as you build a bankroll for KD 152.

Notable Nine for Kentucky Derby 149

 Happy Derby week!

Today we take our annual look at the notable nine Kentucky Derby 149 contenders. Not necessarily in our selection order, they are the top horses with the ability to at least hit the board and a strong possibility to hit the board.

#15 Forte (I. Ortiz / Pletcher) holds a triple digit Beyer number of 100. He won the Florida Derby making his fifth win in a row. Millionaire tracker/closer. Son of Violence. 85% win record from seven starts.

#10 Practical Move (R. Vazquez / Yakteen) also holds a triple digit Beyer, doubling 100 in his last two races. He won the Santa Anita Derby making his third win in a row. Son of Practical Joke shows improving speed figs with an 100% in the money record from seven starts.

#3 Two Phil's (Loveberry / Rivelli) holds the highest Beyer number of 101, albeit over a synthetic surface. This guy has a win over the Churchill track. He won the Jack Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park. A son of Hard Spun, he is 75% in the money from eight career starts.

#5 Tapit Trice (L. Saez / Pletcher) holds a high Beyer figure of 99. Coming into the race with four wins in a row. He is the Bluegrass winner at Keeneland. Son of Tapit, is 100% in the money from five starts.

#17 Derma Sotogake (Lemaire / Hidetaka) holds a TimeForm speed rating of 109. He is the winner of the UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse. Shipped directly from Dubai to the US to acclimate well in advance of the Derby. Son of Mind Your Biscuits, is 75% in the money from eight starts.

#14 Angel of Empire (Prat / B. Cox) holds a high Beyer speed number of 94 as well as improving speed figures over his last three races. Winner of the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. Millionaire son of Classic Empire, is 83% in the money from six starts.

#11 Disarm (Rosario / Asmussen) holds a high Beyer mark of 90 which he doubled up over his last two races. Has raced at Churchill. He was third last out in the Lexington at Keeneland to earn enough points to join the gate. A son of Gun Runner, he is 100% in the money from five career starts.

#9 Skinner (JJ Hernandez / Shirreffs) holds a high Beyer speed fig of 99 which he earned finishing 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby, last out. Old-school trainer, John Shirreffs has shown great patience in the development of his charge. Son of Curlin, is 66% in the money from six starts.

#4 Confidence Game (Graham / Desormeaux) holds a high Beyer figure of 94 earned winning the Rebel last out at Oaklawn Park. He is the most experienced Churchill Downs runner with a 75% itm from four starts over the track. A son of Candy Ride [ARG], he is 85% in the money from seven career starts.

It should be an excellent running of the 149th Kentucky Derby. We project the favortie to go off at approximately 4-1 which should make for some nice exotic payouts.

KD 149 is expected to go off at 3:57 pm Pacific Time.

Arkansas Derby Day

 We are getting closer to KD 149. On this fantastic Stakes Saturday we look in on the action down in Hot Springs, Arkansas.

Oaklawn Park Race 12 {Arkansas Derby~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A highly talented field of eleven will go to the gate in this high-end derby points prep race.

Past Performances used:  TimeFormUS.

This promises to be a very competitive race as the TimeForm speed figs are fairly close. All but three have raced over the Oaklawn track. Only two have raced at this very distance. There is sufficient speed to maintain a fierce pace. It should be one of the best races on this Stakes Saturday.

#6 Angel of Empire (Prat / B. Cox) is one of two that has gone this distance earning the highest speed fig over it. He holds the third highest last out speed number and has put in four serious workouts. Expect him to track the pace and launch into the stretch. A son of Classic Empire, he is 80% in the money from five career starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#8 Reincarnate (j. Velazquez / Yakteen) should be the deserved favorite with the second highest (tie) last out speed number and three top-notch peaking workouts. He should be forwardly placed positioned for a significant effort. This colt enjoys the surface and the track. A son of Good Magic, he is 100% in the money from six career starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#10 Red Route One (Gaffalione / Asmussen) will stretch out easily for this one. He shares the second highest last out speed number and four strong peaking workouts. This guy will be coming late into a frothy pace. He should relish this distance as much as he likes the surface and the track. A son of Gun Runner, he is 57% in the money from seven career starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#7 Rocket Can (J. Alvarado / Mott) holds the highest last out speed number coupled with two sound workouts. Son of Into Mischief, is 66% itm from six starts.

#5 Airtime (C. Torres / Diodoro) holds two wins in a row over the Oaklawn track. Strong workout tab with three successive speed fig jumps shows he'll take another step forward. Son of American Freedon, is 80% itm from five starts.

#3 Harlocap (Santana / Asmussen) has gone this distance and should be part of the pace scenario. Son of Justify, is 75% itm from four starts.

$1 Saturday Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#6 Angel of Empire  //  #8 Reincarnate,  #10 Red Route One,  #7 Rocket Can,  #5 Airtime,  #3 Harlocap.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#8 Reincarnate,  #10 Red Route One,  #7 Rocket Can,  #5 Airtime,  #3 Harlocap  //  #6 Angel of Empire.

Best of luck with  all your wagers on this wonderful Stakes Saturday!!!

A Grade Two Stakes Saturday

 We look in on that beautiful Track, Keeneland, for a Stakes Saturday Grade two TURF race.

Keeneland Race 9 {Elkhorn Stakes~G2~1 1/2 mile~TURF~4 year-old Up~Graded Stakes}

A diluted field of eight will hop onto the grass in this annual contest.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

A great group of Turfer's will show their staying power in this exceptional race. There is enough speed to maintain an honest pace. Only three have not raced over the Keeneland Turf. Speed numbers are fairly close making it very competitive. Super strong Turf pedigrees appear throughout this group. It should be one of the most exciting races on this Stakes Saturday.

#10 Red Knight (Graham / Mott) should go off as the deserved favorite as he comes in fresh off a modest layoff. He holds the second highest speed number at the distance and has put in three high powered workouts in preparation. This lad should be tracking the pace closely. A son of Pure Prize, he is 72% in the money from twenty-two career starts.

$1 WIN  /  $2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#2 Say the Word (L. Saez / D'Amato) will challenge with the highest last out speed number and two dynamic workouts. He should track and close gallantly. This guy has hit the board in all four of his starts at this distance. A son of More Than Ready, he loves the Turf and the Keeneland grass.

$1 PLACE  /  $2 SHOW.

#6 Tide of the Sea (Corrales / Maker) should contend with the second highest last out speed number and four superb workouts. He has two wins at this distance in two appearances at same. Look for him to show speed and attempt to wire this field. A son of English Channel, he is 81% in the money from eleven career starts.

$2 SHOW.

#8 Fantasioso [ARG] (Bejarano / Correas) comes in off an layoff after racing in Argentina for his early career. While in Argentina he hit the board in his last two starts. He has put in four rigorous workouts in preparation for his first North American start. A son of Strategic Prince [GB], he is 65% in the money from twenty-three career starts.

$1 SHOW.

$1 Saturday Exacta Wheel ($3.00)

#10 Red Knight  //  #2 Say the Word,  #6 Tide of the Sea,  #8 Fantasioso [ARG].

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#10 Red Knight  +  #2 Say the Word  +  #6 Tide of the Sea  +  #8 Fantasioso [ARG].

Results from Our Previous two Stakes Saturday's

(4/3)  Keenland R11.  Toyota Bluegrass Stakes-G2.  Our first pick, Essential Quality, won (1st) for win money of $1.50, place money of $2.20, and show money of $3.35.  Our second pick, Highly Motivated, finished 2nd for place money of $1.70 and show money of $2.60.  Our third pick, Rombauer, finished 3rd for show money of $5.40.  Our fourth pick, Hidden Stash, finished 4th.

We hit the Exacta for $3.70 and the 10 CENT Superfecta for $7.56. Superfecta went 4-3-5-1.

(4/10)  Oaklawn Park R12.  Arkansas Derby--G1.  Our first pick Concert Tour, finished 3rd.  Our second pick, Super Stock, won (1st) for show money of $2.80.  Our third pick, Caddo River, finished 2nd for show money of $2.40.

We missed on the Exacta and the 10 CENT Superfecta box. Superfecta went 1-2-5-4.

Bankroll settles at $54.14.

We take on the Arkansas Derby

 As KD 147 draws nearer, we take a look at this years final prep race on the Derby Trail, the Arkansas Derby.

Oaklawn Park Race 12 {Arkansas Derby~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A short field of six will go to the gate in this year's running of the Arkansas Derby.

Past Performances used:  DRF Formulator.

Despite the low number of entrants, this is a stellar field of colts making the final prep before the first Saturday in May. There is a ton of speed to keep this pace moving. Speed numbers are fairly close as each of these six colts continue to improve. None of them have gone this distance. All have run over the Oaklawn track. It should be a great day of racing and the KD 147 picture should become a lot clearer.

#5 Concert Tour (Rosario / Baffert) should remain unbeaten. It is his race to win. With the highest last out speed number and two strong workouts, he is the deserved favorite. This son of Street Sense, should go off on or near the lead and shuffle off convincingly.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE.

#1 Super Stock (Santana / Asmussen) will challenge with the third highest (tie) last out speed number and three superb peaking workouts. He should be tracking the pace closely. A son of Dialed In, he is 72% in the money from seven career starts.

$2 SHOW.

#2 Caddo River (Geroux / B. Cox) should show speed from the start. He comes into this race sharing the third highest last out speed number and two vibrant workouts. A son of Hard Spun, he is 80% in the money from five career starts.

$2 SHOW.

#6 Last Samurai (Court / D. Stewart) could surprise as a continually improving colt. This guy should stay close in this tightly grouped field and strike in the stretch. He has put in four hearty workouts in preparation for this race. A son of Malibu Moon, he has a win from four career starts.

$1 Saturday Exacta Wheel ($3.00)

#5 Concert Tour  //  #1 Super Stock,  #2 Caddo River,  #6 Last Samurai.

50 Cent Trifecta ($4.00)

#5 Concert Tour  /  #1 Super Stock,  #2 Caddo River  /  ALL.

 

Stakes Saturday in Sunny Florida

On this Stakes Saturday we look in on Sunny South Florida and a fantastic Turf race.

Gulfstream Park Race 9 {Sunshine Forever Stakes~1 1/16 mile~TURF~4 year-old Up~Stakes}

A reduced field of nine will hit the grass in this featured race. It comes up a little light on speed. Speed figs are fairly close which makes it a very competitive event. All of these lads have covered this distance magnificently in their careers. It should be an excellent race on a tremendous Saturday card at awesome Gulfstream Park.

#4 Aquaphobia (I. Ortiz / Maker) should run a very good race with the fourth highest (tie) last out speed number at a longer Turf route and two superb workouts. This guy loves the Turf, distance, and course. He is 80% in the money at this distance holding the second highest number at the distance. A son of Giant's Causeway, he should be tracking the pace closely ready to strike.
$1 WIN  /  $2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#6 Halladay (L. Saez / Pletcher) should be motoring on the front end with the potential to wire the field. He holds the second highest last out speed number and two solid workouts. This guy is 75% in the money at the distance. A son of War Front, he has won both of his races over the Gulfstream course.
$1 PLACE  /  $2 SHOW.

#11 Admission Office (Rosario / Lynch) will challenge with the highest last out speed number at a longer route and four fierce workouts including two bullets. He holds the highest speed number at the distance while holding a 100% in the money record from three tries. A son of Point of Entry, he should be closing swiftly.
$1 SHOW.

#9 Social Paranoia (Zayas / Pletcher) comes in off a win streak of two. He holds the third highest last out speed number and three hearty workouts. This guy is another that is 100% in the money record at the distance from four efforts. A son of Street Boss, he should find himself in a good tracking position ready to close.

$1 Saturday Exacta Wheel ($3.00)

#4 Aquaphobia //  #6 Halladay,  #11 Admission Office.  #9 Social Paranoia.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#4 Aquaphobia  +  #6 Halladay  +  #11 Admission Office  +  #9 Social Paranoia.



Last Stakes Saturday (5/1) Results
Oaklawn Park R13.  Arkansas Derby (Div. ii).  Our first pick, Storm the Court, finished 7th.  Our second pick, Silver Prospector, finished 8th.  Our third pick, Nadal, won (1st) for show money of $3.20.
We failed in our $1 Saturday Exacta wheel effort.
Superfecta went 5-4-1-10.
Bankroll gets ripped and tumbles to $110.27.

It's Derby Day. Arkansas Derby Day.

On the first Saturday in May, which would normally be the day of the Kentucky Derby, we look at division 2 of the Arkansas Derby. The race will be the lucky thirteenth.

Oaklawn Park Race 13 {Arkansas Derby (div. II)~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A very strong field of nine (after two scratches) will go to the gate in arguably the tougher of the two Arky Derby races. There is plenty of speed to carry a swift pace forward. Speed numbers are fairly close among this group. Interestingly, one millionaire is in the race. All but three will be stretching out in distance. This race should be the most exciting of the two Arkansas Derby divisions.

#3 Storm the Court (Prat / Eurton) might be the big surprise. He is last year's juvenile champ and looks to get back on track as the KD 146 trail changes. He holds the fourth highest last out speed number and four superb peaking workouts. This lad is 66% in the money from six career starts. A millionaire son of Court Vision, he has the tactical speed to fit in nicely with whatever pace develops.
$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#7 Silver Prospector (Santana / Asmussen) should challenge despite having an average last out speed number, but throwing down three solid peaking workouts. This guy is 100% in the money over a dirt surface. A son of Declaration of War, he should settle into a nice tracking position ready to strike.
$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#5 Nadal (Rosario / Baffert) is the one to beat. He holds the second highest last out speed number and four high octane workouts. This lad has already won over the Oaklawn Park track. He should be part of the speed scenario on the front-end. A son of Blame, he has won all three of his three career races.
$2 SHOW.

#10 Farmington Road (Castellano / Pletcher) should contend with a couple of decent last out speed numbers and two sound workouts. This guy has already raced twice at this distance hitting the board once. He will be closing fiercely into a strong pace. A son of Quality Road, he is 60% in the money from five career starts.

$1 Saturday Exacta Wheel ($3.00)

#3 Storm the Court //  #7 Silver Prospector,  #5 Nadal,  #10 Farmington Road.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#3 Storm the Court  +  #7 Silver Prospector  +  #5 Nadal  +  #10 Farmington Road.




Last Superfecta Sunday (4/26) Results
Oaklawn Park R10.  Allowance.  We misfired on our 10 CENT Superfecta Box effort grabbing only two of the four wagering interests required for the win. Superfecta went 5-1-9-10.
Our Bronze horseshoe runner, Shilah Baby, finished 8th.
Bankroll takes another hit, dipping to 129.47.

A Little New York Turf for Superfecta Sunday

On this Superfecta Sunday we take in a nice Stakes race on the Turf in New York.

Aqueduct Race 8 {Mizdirection Stakes~6 Furlongs~TURF~3 year-old~Fillies~Stakes}

A nice group of eight fillies will step onto the grass in this annual event. There is a ton of speed signed on which could produce a hot pace. Speed figs look fairly close as a few of these gals will be stepping on to the green for the first time. None of these girls have raced over the Aqueduct Turf. Our task is to knit together a winning 10 CENT Superfecta box ticket.

#4 Mae Never No [IRE] (Bravo / W. Ward) looks ready to hit the grass after a modest layoff. She holds the second highest (tie) speed number over the Turf and has put in four sturdy workouts prepping for this one. A daughter of No Nay Never, she should be forwardly placed looking for an opening. This girl is our Bronze Horseshoe selection.
$2 SHOW.

#9 Queen of Bermuda [IRE] (Alvarado / Motion) should challenge having already won a race at this distance, sharing the second highest speed number over the surface, and putting in four top-notch workouts. She is another coming off a modest layoff. With all the speed signed on she could benefit greatly with her tracking running style. A daughter of Exceed and Excel [AUS], she is 63% in the money from eleven career starts.

#3 Golonda [FR] (I. Ortiz / C. Brown) is another that will challenge coming off a brief layoff. She holds the highest speed number over the Turf and has put in four hearty workouts. This gal is 80% in the money from five career starts. A daughter of Planteur [IRE], she should race close to the pace and get first jump on the leaders.

#8 Eyeinthesky (M. Franco / M. Casse) holds the fourth highest last out speed number and two peaking bullet workouts. She is 55% in the money from nine career starts. A daughter of Sky Mesa, she has the tactical speed to see what type of pace develops and then plot her path for a piece of the purse pie.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#4 Mae Never No [IRE]  +  #9 Queen of Bermuda [IRE]  +  #3 Golonda [FR]  +  #8 Eyeinthesky.




Stakes Saturday Results
Oaklawn Park R11.  Arkansas Derby--G2.  Our first pick, Galilean, finished 5th.  Our second pick, Omaha Beach, won (1st) for place money of $3.00 and show money of $4.20.  Our third pick, Improbable, finished 2nd for show money of $3.00.
We just missed on our 10 CENT Superfecta box effort capturing three of four wagering interests.
Superfecta went 3-1-8-5.
Bankroll gets rocked and drops to $47.96.

Stakes Saturday in Hot Springs

On this Stakes Saturday we take a look at the last race on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Oaklawn Park Race 11 {The Arkansas Derby~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A great crop of eleven will take to the Arkansas dirt to chase the Derby dream. With KD 145 only three weeks away, many in this starting gate are seeking additional Derby points to assure their entry into the gate on the first Saturday in May. There is plenty of speed to mount a rapid pace. Speed numbers are reasonably close offering a competitive race. The Arkansas Derby has always been a key race for the Kentucky Derby; this one will be no exception.  It should be a fantastic race.

#7 Galilean (Prat / Hollendorfer) should take another step forward with the third highest last out speed number and three terrific endurance producing workouts. He has 7.5 KD points and a win or second here will get him a spot in this years big dance. A son of Uncle Mo, he should be forwardly placed ready for battle.
$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#3 Omaha Beach (M. Smith / Mandella) could go off as a co-favorite with the highest last out speed number and two bullet workouts. He will be seeking his third win in a row coupled with a 100% in the money record from six starts. This colt has 37.5 KD points, but could use a few more to insure his spot in KD 145. A son of War Front, he should be forwardly placed jostling for position heading into the stretch run.
$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#1 Improbable (J. Ortiz / Baffert) is the other probable favorite with the second highest (tie) last out speed number and two bullet workouts. He will need some additional points to make it to the gate on May 4th as he currently has 25 KD points. Expect this son of City Zip to track the pace and strike in the stretch.
$2 SHOW.

#8 Country House (Rosario / Mott) should challenge with a couple of good last out speed numbers and two solid workouts. This lad continues to improve with every race. He is the only one in the field that has competed at this distance. Count 30 KD points to his credit. A son of Lookin At Lucky, he should be closing swiftly into a fast pace.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#7 Galilean  +  #3 Omaha Beach  +  #1 Improbable  +  #8 Country House.



Last Superfecta Sunday (4/7) Results
Keeneland R8.  Appalachian--G2.  We just missed on our 10 CENT Superfecta box effort capturing three of the four required to hit it. Superfecta went 4-9-5-8.
Our Bronze Horseshoe selection, The Mackem Bullet [IRE] won (1st) for show money of $2.30.
Bankroll get shaved a buck and a dime to settle at $57.16.

Superfecta Sunday at Rainy Keeneland

We were hoping for a couple of great Turf races down at Keeneland, but rain intervened. We will look at a nice race that comes off the Turf.

Keeneland Race 5 {1 1/8 mile~OFF the TURF~4 year-old Up~Allowance}

The field has been reduced to six in this high quality event. Consequently, we will chuck our usual Superfecta Sunday box and create a prudent 10 CENT Superfecta ticket. There are a few in this one that like to be forwardly placed which should yield a good quickening heading into the stretch. Speed numbers are very close. The remaining group of six should make a very competitive event.

#5 Team Colors (Geroux / Sweazy) might have the edge with the highest speed number over wet conditions and two solid peaking workouts. Also, he holds the highest speed number at the distance. A son of Street Cry [IRE], he should track and close gallantly. He is our Bronze Horseshoe selection.

$1 SHOW.

#10 Jess I Am (Bridgmohan / B. Cox) will challenge with the second highest last out speed number, a three race progression, and two hearty workouts. He is another that has raced confidently over wet, holding a 50% in the money record from four runs. A son of Eskendreya, he could be the pace setter.

#6 Italian Charm (Graham / Maker) should be a contender with the second highest speed number at the distance and a powerful workout tab of three peaking works. A son of Gio Ponti, he raced well over sloppy conditions at the Fair Grounds, last out.

10 CENT Superfecta

#5 Team Colors  /  #10 Jess I Am,  #6 Italian Charm  / ALL  /  ALL.

Stakes Saturday Results

Oaklawn Park R11.  Arkansas Derby--G1.  Our first pick, Combatant, finished 4th.  Our second pick, Solomini, finished 3rd for show money of $2.60.  Our third pick, Magnum Moon, won (1st) for show money of $2.40.

Superfecta went 6-8-5-9.

Bankroll gets smoked and drops to $235.40.

Stakes Saturday Thriller in Hot Springs

On this Stakes Saturday we will witness the final two Kentucky Derby prep races in what has been a very sensational Derby trail. We will take in the highly competitive race in Hot Springs, Arkansas.

Oaklawn Park Race 11 {Arkansas Derby~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

The final KD 144 points are on the line in what should be a thrilling running of the Arkansas Derby. Nine will go to the gate for the 100 (1st) - 40 (2nd) - 20 (3rd) - 10 (4th) points available for entry into the gate in this year's Kentucky Derby. Two runners in this field, Solomini and Quip probably have enough points (50 each) to gain access to a Derby spot. The rest will battle bravely. 

There is enough speed to create an honest pace. Speed numbers are fairly close which could give any of these fine lads their spot in KD 144. Only two have gone this distance before. All but one have been nominated to the Triple Crown. It should be the best race of all on this Stakes Saturday.

#9 Combatant (Santana / Asmussen) should get the pace he needs as he stretches out to this distance. He holds the third highest (tie) last out speed number, a two race progression, and two sound peaking workouts. He holds 22 Derby points. A son of Scat Daddy, he should have the necessary kick to capture the victory in the stretch. 

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#5 Solomini (Prat / Baffert) will challenge sharing the third highest last out speed number and putting in three stamina producing workouts. This lad is 100% in the money from five career starts. He too will be stretching out to the distance. He holds 34 Derby points. A son of Curlin, he should be close to the pace seeking first run heading into the stretch.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#6 Magnum Moon (L. Saez / Pletcher) should go off as the deserved favorite with the highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and two bullet workouts. This guy will be seeking his fourth win in a row having notched three wins from three career starts. A son of Malibu Moon, he should be forwardly placed ready to glide into the stretch.

$2 SHOW.

#8 Quip (Geroux / Brissett) could be the front runner coming off his win in the Tampa Bay Derby last out. He holds the second highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and three superb peaking workouts. A son of Distorted Humor, he should show improvement on the stretch-out.

#3 Tenfold (Espinoza / Asmussen) will be making his third career start having already won his first two. He shows the fourth highest last out speed number and two hearty peaking workouts. Those two victories came over the Oaklawn track. Another son of Curlin he could factor in as part of the pace scenario.

10 CENT Superfecta 

#9 Combatant, #5 Solomini  /  #9, #5, #6 Magnum Moon  /  #9, #5, #6, #8 Quip, #3 Tenfold  /  #9, #5, #6, #8, #3.

Last Superfect Sunday (4/8) Results

Keeneland R8.  Appalachian--G2.  We just missed on our 10 CENT Superfecta Box play, capturing three of the four wagering Interests required to cash. Superfecta went 2-9-11-1.

Our Bronze Horseshoe runner, Thewayiam, finished 2nd for show money of $1.20.

Bankroll dips to $249.80.

Superfecta Sunday at Keeneland

Superfecta Sunday already?!  Yes, we take a peek at a nice graded stakes sprint at historic Keeneland.

Keeneland Race 8 {Adena Springs Beumont~G2~7 furlongs~3 year-old fillies~Graded Stakes}
A lively group of seven fillies will make the start in this annual sprint contest. Equal parts of speed and off the pace runners make up the field. The speed numbers are closely matched making it a handicapping challenge. We will try to lasso a group of four to make up our 10 CENT Superfecta box ticket.

#2 Fantastic Style (J. Velazquez / Baffert) will be the odds on favorite seeking to win her third in a row. She holds the second highest last out speed number and has put in four serious endurance producing workouts. She should be part of the speed on the front end attempting to wire this field.

#7 Delightful Joy (Lopez / C. Brown) will challenge in her second career start. She ran a route in her first start earning the highest last out speed number of this group. After that winning first start, she drops into this sprint with four superb peaking workouts. She should be tracking the pace ready to strike in the stretch. She is our Bronze Horseshoe selection.
$1 SHOW.

#1 Divine Dawn (Clark / L. Jones) should be a contender with the third highest last out speed number at a slightly longer sprint, a two race progression, and one hearty workout. She should be forwardly placed looking to get first jump on the leaders coming into the lane.

#3 Sweet Success (Lanerie / Arnold) should be in the hunt with a couple of good last out speed numbers and two sound workouts. She should be part of the front party looking to break away from the group. Her last out was a mile route over the synthetic. She should relish the cut-back in distance and switch to dirt.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#2 Fantastic Style  +  #7 Delightful Joy  +  #1 Devine Dawn  +  #3 Sweet Success.



Stakes Saturday Results
Oaklawn Park R11.  Arkansas Derby--G1.  Our first pick, American Pharoah, won (1st) for win money of $2.20 and show money of $3.15.  Our second pick, Madefromlucky, finished 4th.  Our third pick, Far Right, finished 2nd for show money of $2.40.
Superfecta went 6-7-2-4.
Bankroll loses some ground settling at $14.50.
 

Arkansas Derby Day

On this Stakes Saturday we look at a fine group of runners in the last of the big Kentucky Derby preps.

Oaklawn Park Race 11 {Arkansas Derby~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year old~Stakes}
A great crop of eight will report to the gate in this big race. There is enough speed in here to keep the pace rolling giving all the entrants a chance to visit the winners circle. With the exception of one Triple Crown nominee, all have speed numbers that are roughly comparable. The Triple Crown outlier, American Pharoah, has delivered three triple digit speed numbers in a row. He will be the favorite in the race. The big three American trainers, Baffert, Pletcher, and Asmussen all have runners in this one. It should be a great race.

#6 American Pharoah (Espinoza / Baffert) is the deserved favorite with the highest last out speed number and two super strong workouts. He will be seeking his fourth win in a row. This son of Pioneer of the Nile should be forwardly placed and possibly inherit the lead as they move around the track. He will be stretching out in distance. It is his race to win.
$2 WIN  /  $3 SHOW.

#4 Madefromlucky (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) will challenge with the third highest last out speed number, a five race progression, and two superb workouts. He has already charted a win at this distance.  This son of Lookin at Lucky, is in fine form and should track the pace closely ready to strike.
$2 SHOW.

#7 Far Right (Smith / Moquett) should be a contender with the second highest last out speed number, a four race progression, and two stellar peaking workouts. A son of Notional, he will be tracking and closing briskly going into the stretch. This lad will be seeking his third win in a row.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#5 Bold Conquest (Santana / Asmussen) should take another significant step forward with a couple of excellent last out speed numbers, a three race progression, and three robust, peaking workouts. This son of Curlin, can certainly get this distance as he stretches out. Look for him to close dynamically.

#1 The Truth Or Else (Borel / McPeek) should make an earnest effort in his second start at this distance. He holds a couple of good last out speed numbers and has put in three hearty, peaking workouts. A son of Yes Its True, is another that will be closing swiftly.

10 CENT Superfecta

#6 American Pharoah  /  #4 Madefromlucky  /  #7 Far Right  /  #5 Bold Conquest, #1 The Truth Or Else.



Furlong Friday Results
Pimlico R1.  Maiden Claiming.  Our pick, Nina Belle, was scratched so we bailed on the 10 CENT superfecta play.  Also, committed an OOps, as there is a minimum of $1.00 wager for the 10 CENT Superfecta.
Bankroll remains at 15.95.

Horse Racing Weekend Begins in Hot Springs

It's Arkansas Derby week.  To start off our horse racing weekend we look at a speedy stakes race down in old Hot Springs.

Oaklawn Park Race 8 {Count Fleet Sprint Handicap~6 furlongs~3 year old Up~Stakes}
A speed laden group of eight will hit the Arkansas dirt in this fabulous stakes race. It could be a smoking hot pace in this one, favoring those that can sit right off it. Half of the field holds some blistering three digit speed figs. it should be a quick race, but delightful nonetheless.

#6 Ivan Fallunovalot (Borel / Howard) could be part of the speed team on the front end, yet with a good rail ride by terrific jockey, Calvin Borel, he could be the one to hold on. He has the second highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and two superb peaking workouts.
$2 SHOW.

#8 Alsvid (Landeros / Hartman) should challenge with the third highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and one bullet workout.  This lad holds the highest speed number at the distance. He has the tactical speed to stay close and kick it in the stretch.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#7 Gentlemen's Bet (Smith / Moquett) will contend with the highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and two sound workouts. He should be forwardly placed ready for battle. This guy holds the second highest speed fig at the distance and is an impressive 91% in the money at same.

#5 Speechify (Lopez / Nicks) should be in the hunt with a couple of very good last out speed numbers and four outstanding, peaking workouts. This lad is 100% in the money at the distance from five races. In a very hot pace he could be best positioned with his close to the pace running style.

10 CENT Superfecta

#6 Ivan Fallunovalot  /  #8 Alsvid  /  #7 Gentlemen's Bet  /  #5 Speechify.



Last Superfecta Sunday (4/5) Results
Santa Anita R8.  Allowance. We missed by one hitting our 10 CENT Superfecta box ticket.
Superfecta went 4-7-5-3.
Our Bronze Horseshoe runner, Lady Asamo, finished 3rd for show money of $5.00.
Bankroll climbs a few dimes settling at $11.95.

KENTUCKY DERBY 140

We waded through all of the Derby prep races and now it is time for the big dance, The Kentucky Derby.

Churchill Downs Race 11 {Kentucky Derby 140~G1~1 1/4 miles~3 year old~Stakes}
A fabulous field of nineteen will go to the gates for the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby, the most prestigious race in America.  Boy, howdy, is there speed and forwardly placed types in this edition of the race.  All have not yet ventured out at this distance.  Nearly all have raced well in their prep races.  Most have run diligently in their works.  They all appear ready to run the greatest two minutes in all of sports.

#20 Wicked Strong (Maragh / Jerkens) will have a legitimate pace to run into with his nice tracking/closing running style.  He holds the second highest last out speed number, a three race progression, and four stamina enriching, peaking workouts. Winner of the Wood Memorial.  This son of Hard Spun appears ready to make a victorious run of KD 140.
$2 WIN / $3 PLACE / $4 SHOW.

#5 California Chrome (V. Espinoza / Sherman) will not give up easily and is clearly the horse to beat.  He holds the highest last out speed number and has put in two strong workouts.  This son of Lucky Pulpit will join the front running group and should dispatch them efficiently. He had a smashing victory in the Santa Anita Derby.  With four wins in a row he will need to dig deep to hold off those seeking to catch him in the stretch.
$2 PLACE / $3 SHOW.

#6 Samraat (J. Ortiz / Violette) should challenge with his versatile running style.  The handsome son of Noble Causeway holds the fourth highest (tie) last out speed number, a three race progression, and two endurance producing workouts. This guy finished second in the Wood Memorial.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#10 Wildcat Red (Saez / Garoffalo) should be in the hunt sharing the fourth highest last out speed number and two hearty workouts.  A son of D'Wildcat, is 100% in the money from seven starts. This lad was second in the Florida Derby.  He should be one of the forwardly placed types moving on through the stretch.

#15 Tapiture (Santana / Asmussen) could be in the mix with a couple of very good last out speed numbers and three credible peaking workouts.  This son of Tapit is on the cusp of another improvement while tracking the pace closely.  He holds the highest speed number over the Churchill track. In his last, he placed fourth in the Arkansas Derby.

Superfecta
For the purposes of the Kentucky Derby, the Superfecta is one USD.

#20 Wicked Strong  /  #5 California Chrome  /  #6 Samraat  /  #10 Wildcat Red, #15 Tapiture.



Friday's Results
Churchill Downs R11.  Kentucky Oaks--G1.  Our first pick, Untapable, won (1st) for win money of $4.00 and show money of $3.90.  Our second pick, My Miss Sophia, finished 2nd for show money of $4.40.  Our third pick, Sugar Shock, finished 7th.
Mea Culpa, there was no 10 CENT Superfecta.  Superfecta went 13-11-9-4.
Bankroll gets a three buck lift to $27.99.

A Keeneland Superfecta Sunday

On this Superfecta Sunday we take a look at a graded stakes race for the girls down in Lexington, Kentucky.

Keeneland Race 8 {Beaumont~G2~7 furlongs~3 year old~fillies~Stakes}
A fabulous field of eight will take to the poly in this annual affair.  There is tremendous speed which could open the race from a horse coming from off the front end.  All of these gals are closely matched have every indication of improving again.  It should be a fascinating race.  We shall try to sew together a winning 10 CENT Superfecta box ticket.

#4 Sweet Whiskey (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) could have the edge with her great running style versatility.  She holds the second highest last out speed number which was at this distance and has put in two stout workouts.  This will be her debut over the Keeneland poly, but pedigree suggest she'll like it.

#1 Spring Again (A. Solis / Ward) comes into this off a freshening with a couple of decent last out speed figs.  Her last race was a route and she has put in four high quality works.  This gal broke her maiden over the Keeneland poly and holds the highest speed number over the surface.  She can be counted on being forwardly placed.  This gal is our Bronze Horseshoe selection.
$2 SHOW.

#3 Ready to Act (Castellano / C. Brown) will challenge with the third highest last out speed number at a mile TURF route, a two race progression, and four superb workouts.  She should be forwardly placed and get first jump on the leaders heading into the stretch.

#8 Co Cola (Rosario / Pletcher) should show closing capability if the pace really heats up.  She has posted a couple of decent speed numbers in her last two and has put in two stable workouts.  She is 100% in the money from four starts.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#4 Sweet Whiskey  +  #1 Spring Again  +  #3 Ready to Act  +  #8 Co Cola.



Stakes Saturday Results
Oaklawn Park R11.  Arkansas Derby--G1.  Our first pick, Tapiture, finished 4th.  Our second pick, Commissioner, finished 6th.  Our third pick, Conquest Titan, finished 5th.
Superfecta went 1-4-8-3.
Bankroll gets smoked and plummets to $7.44.

A Great Stakes Saturday

Today we look in on one of the best Derby preps along the Kentucky Derby trail,  The Arkansas Derby

Oaklawn Park Race 11 {Arkansas Derby~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year old~Stakes}
A smashing field of eight will go to the gate.  There is plenty of speed to keep a swift pace throughout.  All but one will be stretching out to this distance for the first time.  The speed numbers registered by these fellas are closely comparable.  It should be a fantastic running of the Arkansas Derby.

#3 Tapiture (Rosario / Asmussen) has the edge with the highest last out speed number, a five race progression, and two superb peaking workouts.  This son of Tapit is 100% in the money in six career starts.  He should stay close to the pace, ready to strike going into the stretch.
$2 WIN  / $3 PLACE  / $4 SHOW.

#6 Commissioner (Smith / Pletcher) will challenge as the only entrant who has gone this distance and acquitted himself nobly. He holds a couple of decent last out speed numbers, is working a two race progression, and two sincere peaking workouts.  Bear in mind this son of A.P. Indy is 100% in the money at this distance.  He should be able to close quickly when the pace heats up.
$2 PLACE / $3 SHOW.

#7 Conquest Titan (Borel / Casse) could surprise with a couple of decent last out speed numbers, a four race progression, and three sensational peaking workouts.  This son of Birdstone should not have any problem getting this distance.  Stepping out to another improvement for this lad and his tracking / closing running style.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#8 Bayern (Stevens / Baffert) will contend with the second highest (tie) last out speed number, a two race progression, and four endurance producing workouts.  He should be motoring on the front end and could control the pace to victory.  This son of Offlee Wild has two wins from two career starts.

#9 Strong Mandate (Saez / Lukas) should be in the mix with the third highest last out speed number, a four race progression, and three excellent peaking workouts.  This son of Tiznow, has a versatile running style which should fit this race like a glove.



Friday's Results
Oaklawn Park R10.  Apple Blossom--G1.  Our first pick, Close Hatches, won (1st) for nothing wagered , nothing gained.  Our second pick, Stanwyck, finished 3rd for show money of $3.00.  Our third pick, Let Faith Arise, finished 4th.
Bankroll drops a buck to $13.64.  We will supplement with another Hamilton for today's race.

Superfecta Sunday at Keeneland

Into a sunny Superfecta Sunday in Kentucky we go.

Keeneland Race 8 {Beaumont Stakes~G2~7 furlongs~3 year old~fillies}
A superb field of eleven will make their way in this fantastique running of the Beaumont.  There is enough speed to keep the race humming.  Most are coming off nice freshener's.  It is clear that this race will be both intriguing and exciting.  Let's attempt to put together a winning 10 CENT Superfecta box ticket.

#8 Allaboutcaroline (Leparoux / Motion) looks ready to get back to the polytrack surface she enjoys.  She is coming off a nice freshening sporting the highest speed number on synthetic.  This gal has put in four bold peaking workouts in preparation and should be forwardly placed ready to strike.  A daughter of Value Plus, she will be our Bronze Horseshoe selection.
$2 SHOW.

#2 Premiere Steps [IRE] (Castellano / C. Brown) should be in the pocket ready to launch into the stretch.  She holds the third highest last out speed number off a route, a two race progression, and four solid workouts.  Her pedigree indicates she should take well to this surface after having run on Turf in her seven career starts.

#4 Judy in Disguise [GB] (Smith / Callaghan) will contend with the highest last out speed number prior to her freshening.  She is working a three race progression and has put in four athletic workouts prepping for this one.  This gal should be the speed of the race and is quite capable of holding off all challengers.

#10 Ciao Bella Luna (Rosario / Hollendorfer) should be in the hunt with the fourth highest (tie) last out speed number, a two race progression, and five snappy, peaking workouts.  This gal should track the leaders and pounce in the stretch.  She has run very well over synthetic, albeit Tapeta, and could feel comfortable over the poly.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#8 Allaboutcaroline  +  #2 Premiere Steps [IRE]  +  #4 Judy in Disguise [GB]  +  #10 Ciao Bella Luna.



Stakes Saturday Results
Oaklawn Park R10.  Arkansas Derby--G1.  Our first pick, Overanalyze, won (1st) for win money of $9.40, place money of $8.40, and show money of $9.20.  Our second pick, War Academy, finished 10th (last), apparently pulled-up.  Our third pick, Carve, finished 3rd for show money of $8.60.
Superfecta went 9-8-1-4.
Bankroll blooms like a sweet apple blossom, rising to $37.05.
  

Stakes Saturday at Oaklawn

On this beautiful Spring Saturday we take a look at one of the two remaining premiere Kentucky Derby preps, The Arkansas Derby.

Oaklawn Park Race 10 {Arkansas Derby~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year old~Stakes}
An inspiring group of ten will make their start seeking derby points to land a spot in the 2013 Kentucky Derby.  This race is filled with speedy types which may provide a strong opportunity for those coming from off the pace.  Only two have previously gone this distance.  It should be all what it has been billed as, a premiere top flight contest.

#9 Overanalyze (Bejarano / Pletcher) currently is sitting with ten (10) Derby points and needs to score here to gain entry into KD 139.  He holds the highest speed number at the distance (a triple digit) and posted a respectable last out speed number.  This son of Dixie Union has posted four superb workouts and appear ready to use his tactical speed to great advantage.
$2 WIN / $3 PLACE / $4 SHOW.

#2 War Academy (Smith / Baffert) comes in from sunny California to battle this talented group.  He holds the second highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and three strengthening workouts. As his pedigree would suggest, a son of Giant's Causeway, distance and surface should not be a problem.  It seems like he may run mid-pack and make a go for it heading into the turn with an awesome late kick.
$2 SHOW.

#1 Carve (Santana / Asmussen) may surprise with a couple of good last out speed numbers and two robust, peaking workouts.  This son of First Samurai has two wins over this track in three tries.  Should the pace be frothy, he will utilize a strong kick to score well.  Surprisingly, he is the only one not Triple Crown nominated.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#10 Oxbow (Stevens / Lukas) may go off as the favorite with the highest last out speed number, a four race progression, and two hearty workouts.  He should be the speed of the race and needs to tamp down on it to secure his birth into KD 139.  This son of Awesome Again has a group high of thirty (30) derby points.

#4 Falling Sky (M. Garcia / Terranova) has secured twenty (20) derby points and will need to perform well to insure a gate position in KD 139.  He has posted a couple of very good last out speed numbers, a four race progression, and three sensational, peaking workouts.  This son of  Lion Heart should be forwardly placed and back off a little if the pace heats up.

10 CENT Superfecta

#9 Overanalyze / #2 War Academy / #1 Carve / #10 Oxbow, #4 Falling Sky.



Friday's Results
Keeneland R8.  Allowance.  Our first pick, Reload, won (1st) for win money of $2.10 and show money of $1.10. Our second pick, Casino Dan, finished 2nd for show money of $1.60.  Our third pick, Fairy Cat, finished 9th.
Superfecta went 7-12-8-10.
Bankroll gains a few cents to settle at $14.65.

A Wonderful Keeneland Sunday

To close out our horse racing weekend we look at a neat allowance race on the Turf at Keeneland.

Keeneland Race 9 {1 1/16~Turf~4 year old Up~Allowance}
A sensible field of eight talented turfers go to the gate in this race.  There doesn't appear to be any overpowering speed, but solid tactical speed.  Half the field is coming off a longer layoff and three of these fire well fresh.  It looks like a very nice competitive race.

#4 Don Cavallo (Castellano / Attfield) has a very slight edge with the fourth highest (tie) last out speed number, a win at this distance, and two superb workouts.  It is likely that he will be motoring on the front end.
$2 SHOW.

#6 Gleam of Hope (Gomez / Stall) looks primed coming off a long layoff with three strong workouts.  Prior to the layoff he had a two race progression and has the third highest overall speed number.  He should be closing well into the pace.
$2 SHOW.

#2 Golden Yank (Theriot / Thomas) should surprise with the highest speed number at the distance, a decent last out speed number, a two race progression, and one hearty workout.  Another that will be closing in the stretch.
$2 SHOW.

Another Wagering Interest
#5 Dubious Miss (Borel / McGee) looks ready to tackle this field with the third highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and one quality workout.  Might be pressing the pace and get first jump in the stretch.

10 CENT Superfecta
#4 Don Cavallo, #6 Gleam of Hope / #4, #6 / #2 Golden Yank, #5 Dubious Miss / #2, #5.


















Saturday's Stakes Results
Keeneland R9. Toyota Bluegrass.  Our first pick, Santiva, finished 9th.  Our second pick, Sensational Slam, finished 12th (last). Our third pick, Crimson China, finished 5th.  Superfecta went 5-7-2-1.
Oaklawn Park R11. Arkansas Derby. Our first pick, The Factor, finished 7th.  Our second pick, Nehro, finished 2nd for show money of $5.60.  Our third pick, Dance City, finished 3rd for show money of $14.20.  Superfecta went 9-2-8-6.
Bankroll rises to $18.40.