Notable Nine for Kentucky Derby 151

 The Kentucky Derby 151 is this Saturday. On this "Thurby" we take a look at our top nine horses that can be expected to run well in the race. We'll look at lay-out some of the stats of these horses in post-position order. 

#4 Rodriguez (M. Garcia / Baffert) can be expected to be on or near the lead. He has worked well during the last thirty days. Son of 2020 Derby winner, Authentic.

Top Beyer Speed fig:  101

Last Race / Place:  Wood Memorial 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $104.5.

Jockey Trainer Win %.  M. Garcia (.05) / Baffert (.30) routes.

#7 Luxor Cafe (Moreira / Noriyuki) should travel close to pace. He punched his ticket on the Japan road to the Derby. Son of 2015 Derby winner, American Pharoah.

Top Speed Number: posted a Time Form rating of 103.

Last Race / Place:  Japan 1st. (winner of four races in a row).

Avg. earnings per race:  $63.1.

No Stats on the Jockey / Trainer win percentages.

#8 Journalism (Rispoli / McCarthy) is the deserved favorite and will be hard to beat. He should track the pace closely. Son of Curlin.

Top Beyer speed fig:  108.

Last Race / Place: Santa Anita Derby 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $127.7.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  Rispoli (.22) / McCarthy (.18) routes.

#9 Burnham Square (B. Hernandez / Wilkes) will be tracking and closing. Strong work-out tab. Son of Liam's Map.

Top Beyer Speed fig: 96.

Last Race / Place:  Bluegrass Stakes 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $162.9.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  B. Hernandez (.18) / Wilkes (.13) routes.

#10 Grande (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) should be tracking the pace closely. Three race progression with one decent workout. Another son of Curlin.

Top Beyer Speed fig: 97.

Last Race / Place:  Wood Memorial 2nd.

Avg. earnings per race:  $76.0.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  J. Velazquez (12) / Pletcher (.17) routes.

#14 Tiztastic (Rosario / Asmussen) will be tracking and closing into the pace. Superb three peaking workouts. Ready for the race. A son of Tiz the Law.

Top Beyer Speed fig:  95.

Last Race / Place: Louisiana Derby 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $193.7.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  Rosario (.13) / Asmussen (.16) routes.

#17 Sandman (J. Ortiz / M. Casse) should be tracking and closing swiftly. Two good workouts. Gray is good. A son of Tapit.

Top Beyer speed fig:  99.

Last Race / Place:  Arkansas Derby 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $156.8.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  J. Ortiz (.24) / M. Casse (.15) routes.

#18 Sovereignty (J. Alvarado / W. Mott) is another one of the closing crew. Three robust workouts in the last thirty days. Son of Into Mischief.

Top Beyer Speed fig:  95.

Last Race / Place:  Florida Derby 2nd.

Avg. earnings per race:  $114.5.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  J. Alvarado (.16) / W. Mott (.13) routes.

#19 Chunk of Gold (Loveberry / E. West) is more of a tracker that could get first jump on the closers. Four power workouts in the last thirty days. Son of Preservationist.

Top Beyer Speed fig:  92 (earned twice in his last two)

Last Race / PLace:  Louisiana Derby 2nd.

Avg. earnings per race:  $87.2.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  Loveberry (.13) / E. West (.08) routes.

We will post our KD 151 picks early Saturday (5/3) morning. Look out for any scratches to the field in the meantime.

Best of luck to all your plays leading up to the Run for the Roses!!!

2020 Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw

 Any Impact of the KD 146 Post Position Draw?

Yes and Maybe. This morning at Churchill Downs was the post position draw. Little drama, but there might be some impact as a result of the draw.

This year's Kentucky Derby will yield a fast pace. The weather is forecast to be near perfect. All of the favorites have landed outside positions. Speedy and forwardly placed types are on the outside and will have to giddy-up from the gate opening in order to find good position before going into the first turn. There is also a little speed coming out of the near middle post positions making it a speedy proposition for all the forwardly placed types. Such a speed scenario should benefit the trackers and closers most of which have landed the inside posts for potential ground saving trips.

Tiz the Law drew post position #17. He will need to run his race to get that post off the schnide as no horse has ever won from that positon. Speedster, Authentic, will be to his outside in post #18. He will have to gun it to avoid getting stuck wide going into the first turn. #16 Honor AP and #15 Ny Traffic will also have to get it on when the gates open in order to position themselves first.

#17 Tiz the Law is the one to beat and the outside draw may have minimal affect. It is the Derby. Any journeyman handicapper will have to HEDGE and put together a alternate ticket to take into account  these pace factors or others.

Impact on Our KD 146 Notable Nine

The post position draw has little impact on our top nine, but two defections due to minor injuries has us revamping our Notable Nine. Caracaro and Art Collector will not be in the field.

1. #17 Tiz the Law
2. #18 Authentic
3. #16 Honor AP
4. #3 Enforceable
5. #7 Winning Impression
6. #2 Max Player
7. #4 Storm the Court
8. #6 King Guillermo
9. #5 Major Fed

This year's Kentucky Derby will be very special. The excitement will continue to build leading up to the first Saturday in September