Stakes Saturday on the Kentucky Turf

 We look at a race long on the Turf under the Twin Spires for Stakes Saturday.

Churchill Downs Race 11 {River City Stakes~G3~1 1/8 mile~TURF~3 year-old Up~Stakes}

A competitive field of eleven will hit the Turf in this annual contest.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

There is plenty of speed in this "lucky last" to keep the pace rolling. Speed figs are very close with all but one entrant hitting triple digit speed numbers in at least one of their last three races. All have competed over the Turf and at this distance. Only one tries the Churchill Turf for the first time. It should be a tremendous race to conclude an exceptional Churchill Downs card.

#8 Corruption (J. Ortiz / M. Casse) should be forwardly placed. He drops from a grade 2 and cuts back in distance. He finished on the board in his last and has put in two solid workouts. This guy loves the Turf, distance, and course. A son of Medaglia d'Oro, he is 70% in the money from ten starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#4 Encino (I. Ortiz / B. Cox) has the tactical speed to adjust to whatever pace develops. He won his last earning a triple digit speed fig and has put in three sound workouts. This lad loves the Turf and distance. It will be his first race over the Churchill course. A son of Nyquist, he is 81% in the money from eleven starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#6 Chasing the Crown (Gaffalione / Maker) will track the pace and strike in the stretch. He excels over the Turf, at the distance, and on the course. This guy holds the third highest last out speed number and three diligent peaking workouts. A millionaire son of Skipshot, he is 79% in the money from nineteen starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#12 Taking Candy (Concepcion / DeVaux) should track the pace closely. He relishes the Turf, distance, and course. This horse comes in with the second highest last out speed number and four tremendous workouts. He has progressively increased his speed numbers in his last three races. A son of Twirling Candy, he is 66% in the money from twelve starts.

#9 Lagynos (K. Asmussen / S. Asmussen) is another that should track the pace closely. He is another that has improved his speed figs over his last three races. This colt loves the Turf, distance, and course. He hit the board in his last scoring a triple digit speed fig and has put in four strong workouts. A millionaire son of Kantharos, he is 71% in the money from twenty-one starts.

#3 Quatrocentro (Leparoux / Guitierrez) comes in with the highest last out speed number and one good workout. He has the tactical speed to adjust to the pace. This colt drops down from a grade one and is decent over the Turf. A son of War Front, he is 50% in the money from twelve starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#8 Corruption  ///  #4 Encino,  #6 Chasing the Crown,  #12 Taking Candy,  #9 Lagynos,  #3 Quatrocento.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#4,  #6,  #12,  #9,  #3  ///  #8 Corruption.

Best of luck with all your Stakes Saturday wagers!!!

   

Stakes Saturday at Churchill Downs

 A great day of racing under the Twin Spires on this Stakes Saturday. We look in on a Turf route for the fillies.

Churchill Downs Race 11 {Regret Stakes~G3~1 1/8 mile~3 year-old~Fillies~Graded Stakes}

A reduced field of nine will hit the grass in this "lucky last" stakes race on today's card.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

There is enough speed to carry the pace forward. Speed numbers are fairly close making the race quite competitive. All but one will be attempting this distance for the first time with two cutting back in distance and the rest making the stretch out. Four have covered the Churchill Turf nicely. It should be a fantastic race to cap off a great day of racing under the Twin Spires.

#5 Classic Q (J. Ortiz / M. Casse) is the deserved favorite with the highest last out speed number and one work over the Turf. This gal will stretch out to the distance. She should track the pace closely. In that last race she won over the Churchill Turf. A daughter of Classic Empire, she holds a 40% win rate from five starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#2 Hereforagoodtime (I. Ortiz / B. Walsh) is the only one that has competed at this distance hitting the board in both of her efforts. She comes in with two wins in a row and two fine peaking workouts. This filly has the tactical speed to adjust to the pace. A daughter of Justify, she is 57% in the money from seven starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#6 Totally Justified (L. Saez / Arnold) is another that will be stretching out to this distance. She holds the fourth highest last out speed number and three superb peaking workouts. This gal is another that should track the pace closely. Another daughter of Justify, she is 50% in the money from six starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#8 Fionn (Geroux / B. Cox) will also stretch out to this distance holding the second highest last out speed number and three solid workouts. She should close well into the pace. This girl loves the Turf. A daughter of Twirling Candy, she is 100% in the money from five starts.

#10 Golden Sunshine (Cheminaud / Harty) will be cutting back in distance with the third highest (tie) last out speed number and three strong peaking workouts. She is another that will track the pace closely. It will be her first attempt over the Churchill Turf. A daughter of Medaglia d'Oro, she is 75% in the money from eight starts.

#4 Fixin to Bee (J. Velazquez / Arnold) is the other filly that is cutting back in distance sharing the third highest lsat otu speed number and scoring four excellent workouts.She should track the pace comfortably. A daughter of Mshawish, she has a 28% win rate from seven starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#5 Classic Q  ///  #2 Hereforagoodtime,  #6 Totally Justified,  #8 Fionn,  #10 Golden Sunshine,  #4 Fixin to Bee.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#2,  #6,  #8,  #10,  #4  ///  #5 Classic Q.

Best of luck with all your Stakes Saturday plays!!!

Stakes Saturday at Churchill Downs

 On this Stakes Saturday we take in a nice race going long on the Turf under the Twin Spires.

Churchill Downs Race 9 {Keertana Stakes~1 1/2 mile~TURF~4 year-old Up~Fillies/Mares~Stakes}

A modest field of eight talented ladies will hit the Turf in this classic distance event.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

There is sufficient speed to keep the pace rolling in this long Turf race. Speed numbers are fairly close with six of these ladies having hit the triple digit mark in a least one of their last three outings. Three will be running over the Churchill Turf for the first time. Two will be stretching out to this distance. It is a very competitive race on a day of great racing.

#5 Marksman Queen [GB] (Dettori / Motion) comes in with the second highest last out speed number and two solid workouts. She should be part of the speed contingent on the front-end. This gal loves the Turf and will try the Churchill green for the first time. A daughter of Dubawi [IRE], she is 53% in the money from fifteen starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#2 Tarneema (Curtis / B. Walsh) will be tracking the pace and sprout into the stretch. She enjoys the Turf and the distance. This lady hit the board in her last and has put in two robust workouts in the last thirty days. A daughter of Kitten's Joy, she is 57% in the money from seven starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#6 Sugaree [IRE] (Machado / Delacour) comes in with the fourth highest last out speed number and two sound workouts. She excels at this distance. Look for her to sit a good trip among the tracking pack. A daughter of Camelot [GB], she is 44% in the money from nine starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#4 Strikingly Spun (J. Ortiz / Sharp) will be stretching out with the third highest last out speed number and three superb workouts. She rlishes the Turf and the course. This gal will fit it sweetly in the tracker pack. A daughter of Hard Spun, she is 52% in the money from nineteen starts.

#3 Holy Foley (M. Gutierrez / Lynch) holds the highest (tie) last out speed number and three excellent workouts two of which were over the Turf. She is another tracker that will battle for position. A daughter of Point of Entry, she is 33% in the money from twenty-four starts.

#7 Boss Lady Bailey (L. Saez / Maker) shares the highest last out speed number and has put in two sound workouts. She is another tracker ready for battle. This gal likes the distance and the Churchill course. A daughter of Connect, she is 58% in the money from twelve starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#5 Marksman Queen [GB]  ///  #2 Tarneema,  #6 Sugaree [IRE],  #4 Strikingly Spun,  #3 Holy Foley,  #7 Boss Lady Bailey.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#2,  #6,  #4,  #3,  #7  ///  #5 Marksman Queen [GB].

Best of luck with all your Stakes Saturday wagers!!!

Stakes Saturday under the lights beneath the Twinspires

 KD 150 is a week away with the post-position draw this evening. Today we look at a terrific sprint race on this Stakes Saturday on the great Kentucky dirt.

Churchill Downs Race 9 {Roxelana Overnight Stakes~6 Furlongs~4 year-old Up~Fillies/Mares~Stakes}

A reduced field of nine will go to the gate in this sprint Stakes.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

Plenty of speed will drive the pace in this race. Speed numbers are fairly close. High quality connections fill this field. Only one has yet to race over the Churchill track. Also, there is only one horse that will undertake this distance for the first time. It should be a fine race under the Twinspires lights.

#3 Speedy Traveler (J. Torres / Bauer) has won all three of her races at this distance. She will show speed from the gate opening. This filly holds the highest last out speed number and four super strong peaking workouts. A daughter of First Samurai, she has a 100% win rate from three starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#6 Dazzling Blue (Geroux / B. Cox) should also show speed from the gate. This gal comes off a layoff with four hearty workouts. She has an affinity for the surface, distance, and track. A daughter of Into Mischief, she is 100% in the money from six starts. 

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#2 Last Leaf (L. Saez / Kenneally) shows prgressively improving speed figs in her last three races. This gal should track the pace and take advantage of a sizzling one. She holds the second highest last out speed number at a bit longer sprint and two solid workouts. A daughter of Not This Time, she is 69% in the money from twenty-nine starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#10 Current Climate (Gaffalione / Foster) has the tactical speed to adapt to the pace. A daughter of Raison d'Etat, she is 62% in the money from twenty-four starts.

#5 Zeitlos (Rosario / Asmussen) should track the pace closely and launch into the stretch. A daughter of Curlin, she is 81% in the money from eleven starts.

#8 Condensation (J. Ortiz / Hartman) is another that will track the pace closely. She holds the highest speed number over the surface, distanc, and track. A daughter of Frosted, she is 62% in the money from sixteen starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#3 Speedy Traveler  //  #6 Dazzling Blue,  #2 Last Leaf,  #10 Current Climate,  #5 Zeitles,  #8 Condensation.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#6,  #2,  #10,  #5,  #8  //  #3 Speedy Traveler.

Good luck with all your Churchill Downs wagers as we head into Kentucky Derby week!!!

Stakes Saturday in Kentucky

 We take in some stakes action under the Twin Spires on this Stakes Saturday.

Churchill Downs Race 12 {Fern Creek Stakes~6 1/2 Furlongs~2 year-old~Fillies~Stakes}

A great group of twelve will go to the dirt in this lucky last on the card stakes race.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

There is a plethora of speed to heat this pace to a boil. Speed figs are very close amongst these lightly raced gals. Half the field have raced at least three times, the balance will be making their second or third start. Only three have gone this exact distance. It should be an excellent race to cap off the card.

#1 Youalmosthadme (Gaffalione / B. Cox) holds the highest last out speed number and two efficient workouts. She loves the surface and the track. It will be her first start at this distance. Expect her to be forwardly placed. A daughter of Oxbow, she is 100% in the money from five starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#11 Bella Haze (Beschizza / Santamaria) comes in from a Turf route with the second highest (tie) speed number and four strong peaking workouts. She will show speed. It will be her first start over the Churchill track. A daughter of Flameaway, she is 75% in the money from four starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#8 Field Lass (Leparoux / Arnold) will be forwardly placed with the highest speed number over the Churchill track and two superb workouts. This gal has raced at the distance. A daughter of Munnings, she has a win rate of 25% from four starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering interests

#12 Irish Maxima (L. Saez / Servis) is coming off a mile route with three hearty peaking workouts. She is another that will show speed. This gal will attempt the Churchill track for the first time. A daughter of Maximus Mischief, she has a 66% win rate from three starts.

#2 Fibber (Murrill / Calhoun) has a win at this distance over the Churchill track. She will track the pace. This filly has hit the board in all three of her starts and has put in one superb workouts. A daughter of Frosted, she should take another a step forward.

#10 Sharp Tune (Rosario / Asmussen) shares the second highest last out speed number and two stout peaking workouts. She should be forwardly placed battling among that crew. This gal has a win at the distance. A daughter of Frosted, she holds a win rate of 100% from two starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#1 Youalmosthadme  //  #11 Bella Haze,  #8 Field Lass,  #12 Irish Maxima,  #2 Fibber,  #10 Sharp Tune.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#11,  #8,  #12,  #2,  #10  //  #1 Youalmosthadme.

Best of luck to you in all your Stakes Saturday plays!!!

Superfecta Sunday under the Twin Spires

 We go long on the Turf for this Superfecta Sunday; Under the Twin Spires with the ladies.

Churchill Downs Race 10 {1 1/2 mile~TURF~3 year-old Up~Fillies/Mares~Allowance}

A full field of twelve will go to the gate in this lucky last race on the card.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

Most in this field will be trying this "marathon" distance for the first time. Only three have run it. Speed is sprinkled throughout the gate and should produce an honest pace. Speed figs are fairly close with several showing improvement over their last three races. It should be a fine race to cap off the card.

#3 Whenthedawnbreaks (Geroux / B. Cox) shows consistency in her last three races hitting the board in all of them. She now steps up to this distance. Look for her to possibly show speed as she did in her last securing the fourth highest (tie) speed number. Four superb workouts adds to her cache. A daughter of Ghostzapper, she is 83% in the money from six starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#7 Robin Sage (Machado / Medina) has shown improved speed numbers in each of her last three races. She holds the second highest last out speed number and two sound workouts. She has the tactical speed to follow the pace and shine in the stretch. A daughter of Kitten's Joy, she is 55% in the money from nine starts.

#5 Lavish Habits (Lanerie / Hiles) is one of three that has raced at the distance and the only one to hit the board. She will be tracking and closing valiantly. This gal has improved speed numbers in her last three and has put in four robust workouts. A daughter of Flintshire [GB], she is 30% in the money from thirteen career starts.

#4 R Rose' All Day (Gaffalione / S.A. Joseph) will stretch out to the distance after doubling up on her speed number in her last two. She has put in one sharp workout. This filly will track the pace and strike in the stretch. A daughter of Mor Spirit, she is 54% in the money from eleven starts.

Other Wagering Interests

#8 Loved Reiko (Leparoux / Arnold) has gone this distance. She comes in with the highest last out speed number and one solid workouts. A daughter of Tapit, she is 33% in the money from nine career starts.

#6 Autism Community (Talamo / Engler) is one of two with two or more wins. She will stretch out with two strong peaking workouts. Another daughter of Kitten's Joy, she is 37% in the money from eight career starts.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#3 Whenthedawnbreaks  +  #7 Robin Sage  +  #5 Lavish Habits  +  #4 R Rose' All Day.

10 CENT Superfecta Straight ($7.20)

#3 Whenthedawnbreaks  /  #7 Rabin Sage,  #5 Lavish Habits  /  #7, #5,  #4 R Rose' All Day,  #8 Loved Reiko,  #6 Autism Community  /  ALL.

Best of luck to you on all your Superfecta Sunday wagers!!!

Kentucky Derby 146 Wagering Strategies

 Thursday Strategy Session

KD 146 Wagering Strategy

Despite the lack of fans in this most unusual year, the 2020 Kentucky Derby promises to be a fantastic race to wager and watch. How do we approach it on a "blue collar budget". No need to go crazy like our sports betting brethren, firing a buck ($100), a nickel ($500), or a dime ($1000) at will. Let's go into it modestly, making intelligent picks with a budget of only sixty bucks total. Consider a full spectrum wager strategy for that magnificent 14th race on the card.

Many professional handicapper's have nearly anointed Tiz the Law as the eventual winner. Yes, he is the best of this year's three year-old crop. And should win if he runs his race. Consequently, he should be the key horse in most exotic wagers. Keep in mind he will be seeking his fifth straight win against stiff competition. It is wise to HEDGE a little as you develop your tickets.

Exacta

Set the ticket up with Tiz as the key and then throw in a mid-priced, mid-pack runner, a couple of solid challengers, and a couple of long shot closers. It might look like this.

Tz // A,  B,  C,  D, E

Don't forget to reverse it, putting the others on to and Tiz in the second position. The first-rate handicapper Jerry Jackowitz (jerryjpowerpage.com) has long advised this and has done very well. Both of the above plays will cost $5.00 each.

Trifecta

The trifecta will be a 50 CENT base wager. There are several different ways to construct your tickets given your handicapping prowess. Here are our suggestions:

Tz //  A, B, //  A, B C, D, E, F, G, H

This straightaway wager will cost you a cool $7.00. In addition budget for four Trifecta Box wagers which will cost you $3.00 each for a total of $12.00. Set up a couple of boxes with Tiz the Law and maybe a long shot closer box and one that allows for a stumble by the overwhelming favorite. Have fun with this wager.

Superfecta

Regular readers of this blog know this is our favorite wager and we will do a straight away wager listing those three horses we feel will finish one, two , three, and cost $1.50.

Tz //  A // B  // ALL

Our Lambrakis method ticket might look like this:

Tz  //  A, B  //  A, B, C, D, E  //  A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H

Note that we will use all the horses in our Notable Nine  blog post. This wager will come in at a cost of $4.80.

We will also throw down our much used wager, the 10 CENT Superfecta Box, including Tiz while looking at a few different angles. They might be:

Best Workouts among the entrants. This is somewhat subjective. We will try to determine which have gave a good account of themselves on the track in the past thirty days leading up to KD 146.

Trainer / Jockey combo. This merely represents the win percentage win these trainers and jockey's team up. We just have to determine which horses have a chance. Here is the way the top percentages look by program number.:

18--15--16--9--17--5--1

Top Speed Number given Last Three races:  17--16--18--2

Dollars won per Race:  17--18--4--16. Just divide the horses overall winnings by the number of races he has run.

Long Shot Closers.  Look at the card and see which closers you deem have an excellent chance and throw in a mid-pack off the pace type into your box. This is what we call our Giacomo Play, named after the famed 2005 Kentucky Derby winner. Should the pace collapse it could be the closers and off the pace types that pick up the pieces.

Super High-Five (pentafecta)

If it is on the KD-146 menu, let's play it. After all it is the Derby. We will roll it like this:

Tz  //  A  //  B //  C, D  //  C, D, E, F, G, H

At a cost of $10, this could offer a fantastic pay-out if it cashes.

While this year's Kentucky Derby may not have the substantial handle that normal years have with 150,000 fans under the Twin Spires, it should have some juicy pay outs. Best of Luck to you and may the odds be with you.

Superfecta Sunday under the Spires

On this Superfecta Sunday we take a look at a grand Turf mile under the Twin Spires.

Churchill Downs Race 10 {1 mile~TURF~3 year-old Up~Claiming}

A solid field of twelve will hit the Churchill green in this last on the card Turf battle.

There is enough speed to maintain an honest pace. Speed numbers are all fairly close giving the race a competitive feel. Our task is to knit together a winning 10 CENT Superfecta box ticket.

#12 Oathkeeper (Geroux / Brisset) should be able to stay close to the pace seeking the victory. He holds the fourth highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and three fierce workouts including two bullets. This lad is our Bronze Horseshoe selection.

$2 SHOW.

#14 Purely Boy (Leparoux / Maker) is coming off more than a year layoff, but looks well prepped to challenge. He has put in three vigorous workouts. This guy loves the distance and the Churchill Turf course. He should put on a streaking close.

#2 Dujac (Landeros / Wilkes) appears to be ready to take another step forward with two decent last out speed numbers, a two race progression, and one solid workout. He his coming out of a longer route race and has the tactical speed to move with the developing pace.

#6 Zander Zone (Court / O'Connor) should contend with the highest last out speed number and a two race progression. He is 50% in the money at the distance and overall (30 career races). He should track and go.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#12 Oathkeeper  +  #14 Purely Boy  +  #2 Dujac  +  #6 Zander Zone.

Stakes Saturday Results

Woodbine R12.  Woodbine Mile--G1.  Our first pick, Deauville [IRE], finished 11th.  Our second pick, Tower of Texas, finished 8th.  Our third pick, World Approval, won (1st) for show money of $1.90.

Superfecta went 1-10-3-8.

Bankroll falters to $3.80. We will supplement with a Jefferson for today's racing.