Another Del Mar Sunday Superfecta

 Congratulations to the connections of Authentic in winning Kentucky Derby 146. What a spectacular race it was.

On this Superfecta Sunday we take a look at an excellent Turf race down at old Del Mar.

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club Race 10 {Del Mar Derby~G2~1 1/8 mile~TURF~3 year-old Up~Graded Stakes}

A very good field of twelve will hit the green in this annual event. It comes up short on speed so there is a possibility of a wire job happening. Speed numbers are very close making it richly competitive. There are three fillies going up against the boys here. One Triple Crown nominee makes an appearance. All three of these gals have a shot, but they have all races fifteen days ago in the Del Mar Oaks. Our task is to group together a winning 10 CENT Superfecta Box ticket. It should be a fantastic TURF race.

#4 Pixelate (Rispole / Stidham) should be the one to beat with the second highest (tie) last out speed figure and two hearty workouts. This lad also holds the highest speed number at the distance paired with two in the money performances. Expect him to be tracking the pace. A son of City Zip, he is 100% in the money from ten career starts. This guy is our Bronze Horseshoe selection.

$2 SHOW.

#6 Kanderel (J. Hernandez / Mandella) will challenge with the fourth highest last out speed number and two speedy workouts This guy in the Triple Crown nominee that should take up a tracking position and close swiftly. A son of Candy Ride [ARG], he will be stretching out to this distance with 37% in the money record from eight career starts. He should relish the distance.

#7 Warren's Showtime (Velez / Lewis) should contend with the third highest last out speed number and one solid workout. This guy holds the third highest speed number at the distance showing an in the money performance. He is another that should be among the tracker pack. A son of Clubhouse Ride, he is 83% in the money from twelve career starts.

#12 KP All Systems Go (Cedillo / Mullins) should be vying for the purse money with the fourth highest last out speed number and two robust workouts. This guy will need some pace to close into. He has hit the board in both of his tries at this distance. A son of More Than Ready, he is 55% in the money from nine career starts.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#4 Pixelate  +  #6 Kanderel  +  #7 Warren's Showtime  +  #12 KP All Systems Go.

Stakes Saturday Results

Churchill Downs R14.  KENTUCKY DERBY 146--G1.  Our first pick, Tiz the Law, finished 2nd for place money of $3.40 and Show money of $8.00.  Our second pick, Honor A.P., finished 4th.  Our third pick, Max Player, finished 5th.

Results went 18-17-9-16-2.  We failed in our full spectrum play unable to capture the Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, or the Pentafecta.

Our Bankroll gets rocked and drops to $79.02 will below the "C-Note" line. 

2020 KENTUCKY DERBY DAY

 Finally, it is here, the 2020 Kentucky Derby. A tremendous day is sure to unfold.

Churchill Downs Race 14 {Kentucky Derby 146~1 1/4 mile~3 year-old~Grade One Stakes}

A fantastic field of sixteen will enter the brand new 20 post gate. During this Derby week there have been two scratches. Most of the top entrants are to the outside with top flight speed figs. Most are all improving horses with a chance to run a big one on this most sacred day for horse men and women. Speed is also configured to the outside with a couple of forwardly placed types littered through out the rest of the field. With the defection of King Guillermo, the pace might not be as fast. It should be a fine Kentucky Derby in an unusual year.

#17 Tiz the Law (M. Franco / Tagg) should pull off the victory if he runs his race and gets a good trip. This guy holds the highest last out speed number and two superb workouts. He has already won at this distance. This colt will be seeking his fifth win in a row. He should get out close to the early pace-setters and begin his run for the roses coming into the turn. A son of Constitution, he is 100% in the money from seven career starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#16 Honor A.P. (M. Smith / Shirreffs) will be the chief challenger to the favorite. He holds a couple of very good last out speed numbers and four exceptional workouts. This guy has hit the board in his last three races. He comes in from California to meet these Derby contenders. This ridgling has the tactical speed to go with the outside speedsters. A son of Honor Code, he is 100% in the money from five career starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#2 Max Player (Santana / Asmussen) will need some pace to unleash his kick. He holds the second highest (3-way tie) last out speed number and two sound workouts. This colt is another that has hit the board at this distance. He comes in from the New York circuit. a ground saving trip will be to his benefit when the real racing begins. Another son of Honor Code, is also 100% in the money from five career starts.

$2 SHOW.

#5 Major Fed (Graham / Foley) looks geared up to run the race of his life with some improving speed numbers and three high octane workouts. He comes in from Indiana Grande and has already hit the board at Churchill. This colt has already run over this distance earning a decent speed fig. A son of  Ghostzapper, this lad is 66% in the money from six career starts.

Other Wagering Interests within our NOTABLE NINE

This solid group of horses should be used in the exotics for good effect. #18 Authentic (J. Velazquez / Baffert) will be the speed of the race seeking to wire the field or hold on for a piece of the purse. He shares that second highest last out speed number. #3 Enforceable (Beschizza / M. Casse) will be closing gallantly in the stretch as a veteran of the Churchill track. Should the pace heat up, this colt will be in the mix. #14 Winning Impression (Rocco / D. Stewart) should improve on the stretch out. This gelding should be included in your tickets as his trainer gets all of his charges ready for the big races. #4 Storm the Court (Leparoux / Eurton) is last year's two year old champion and coming back into good form. He should take up a nice tracking position ready to fire. With the scratch of King Guillermo, we fill out our Notable Nine with #7 Money Moves (Castellano / Pletcher). This colt is on a nice speed number improvement in all three of his career starts. Look for him in mid-pack plotting his move.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($8)

#17 Tiz the Law  //  #16 Honor A. P.,  #2 Max Player,  #5 Major Fed,  #18 Authentic,  #3 Enforceable,  #14 Winning Impression,  #4 Storm the Court,  #7 Money Moves.

50 CENT Trifecta ($1.00)

#17 Tiz the Law  /  #16 Honor A.P.  /  #2 Max Player,  #5 Major Fed.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#17 Tiz the Law  +  #16 Honor A.P.  +  #2 Max Player  +  #5 Major Fed.

$1 Super High Five [Pentafecta ($5.00)

#17 Tiz the Law  /  #16 Honor A.P.  /  #2 Max Player  /  #5 Major Fed  /  #18 Authentic,  #3 Enforceable,  #14 Winning Impression,  #4 Storm the Court,  #7 Money Moves.

Friday Race Results

Churchill Downs R12.  KENTUCKY OAKS--G1.  Our first pick, Swiss Skydiver, finished 2nd for show money of $3.90.  Our second pick, Shedaresthedevil, won for show money of $3.80.

We hit our 10 CENT Superfecta Box play cashing for $27.93. Superfecta went 7-1-5-4.

Bankroll gets back across the "c-note line" settling at $101.02.  

Kentucky Derby 146 Wagering Strategies

 Thursday Strategy Session

KD 146 Wagering Strategy

Despite the lack of fans in this most unusual year, the 2020 Kentucky Derby promises to be a fantastic race to wager and watch. How do we approach it on a "blue collar budget". No need to go crazy like our sports betting brethren, firing a buck ($100), a nickel ($500), or a dime ($1000) at will. Let's go into it modestly, making intelligent picks with a budget of only sixty bucks total. Consider a full spectrum wager strategy for that magnificent 14th race on the card.

Many professional handicapper's have nearly anointed Tiz the Law as the eventual winner. Yes, he is the best of this year's three year-old crop. And should win if he runs his race. Consequently, he should be the key horse in most exotic wagers. Keep in mind he will be seeking his fifth straight win against stiff competition. It is wise to HEDGE a little as you develop your tickets.

Exacta

Set the ticket up with Tiz as the key and then throw in a mid-priced, mid-pack runner, a couple of solid challengers, and a couple of long shot closers. It might look like this.

Tz // A,  B,  C,  D, E

Don't forget to reverse it, putting the others on to and Tiz in the second position. The first-rate handicapper Jerry Jackowitz (jerryjpowerpage.com) has long advised this and has done very well. Both of the above plays will cost $5.00 each.

Trifecta

The trifecta will be a 50 CENT base wager. There are several different ways to construct your tickets given your handicapping prowess. Here are our suggestions:

Tz //  A, B, //  A, B C, D, E, F, G, H

This straightaway wager will cost you a cool $7.00. In addition budget for four Trifecta Box wagers which will cost you $3.00 each for a total of $12.00. Set up a couple of boxes with Tiz the Law and maybe a long shot closer box and one that allows for a stumble by the overwhelming favorite. Have fun with this wager.

Superfecta

Regular readers of this blog know this is our favorite wager and we will do a straight away wager listing those three horses we feel will finish one, two , three, and cost $1.50.

Tz //  A // B  // ALL

Our Lambrakis method ticket might look like this:

Tz  //  A, B  //  A, B, C, D, E  //  A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H

Note that we will use all the horses in our Notable Nine  blog post. This wager will come in at a cost of $4.80.

We will also throw down our much used wager, the 10 CENT Superfecta Box, including Tiz while looking at a few different angles. They might be:

Best Workouts among the entrants. This is somewhat subjective. We will try to determine which have gave a good account of themselves on the track in the past thirty days leading up to KD 146.

Trainer / Jockey combo. This merely represents the win percentage win these trainers and jockey's team up. We just have to determine which horses have a chance. Here is the way the top percentages look by program number.:

18--15--16--9--17--5--1

Top Speed Number given Last Three races:  17--16--18--2

Dollars won per Race:  17--18--4--16. Just divide the horses overall winnings by the number of races he has run.

Long Shot Closers.  Look at the card and see which closers you deem have an excellent chance and throw in a mid-pack off the pace type into your box. This is what we call our Giacomo Play, named after the famed 2005 Kentucky Derby winner. Should the pace collapse it could be the closers and off the pace types that pick up the pieces.

Super High-Five (pentafecta)

If it is on the KD-146 menu, let's play it. After all it is the Derby. We will roll it like this:

Tz  //  A  //  B //  C, D  //  C, D, E, F, G, H

At a cost of $10, this could offer a fantastic pay-out if it cashes.

While this year's Kentucky Derby may not have the substantial handle that normal years have with 150,000 fans under the Twin Spires, it should have some juicy pay outs. Best of Luck to you and may the odds be with you.

Kentucky Derby Wagering Menu is Fantastic

 Fantastic KD 146 Wagering Menu

The Kentucky Derby wagering menu was made for horse players in mind this year. There will be all types of opportunities for handicappers to cash. Aside from the usual $2 WIN, PLACE, and SHOW options, it will feature the following wagers for the big race:

• $1 Exacta.

• 50 CENT Trifecta.

• 10 CENT Superfecta.

• $1 Super High Five (while the kentuckyderby.com website does not mention it, Equibase.com does list it among the wagering options for KD 146, race number 14.

Those of us with a modest bankroll will be able to take advantage of the best race on the horse racing calendar.

Aside from the big race, Race 14, there are number of great wagering opportunities on the undercard which includes some very fine races including:

Race 8   American Turf Stakes with eight entrants.

Race 9   Pat Day Mile Stakes with nine entrants.

Race 10 Iroquois Stakes with eleven entrants.

Race 11 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile with eight entrants.

Race 12 Derby City Distaff Stakes with ten entrants.

Race 13 Old Forester Bourbon TURF Classic with ten entrants.

Race 14 Kentucky Derby 146 with a field of eighteen.

All of these races present excellent wagering opportunities for the 10 CENT Superfecta player. What a great day it should be.

2020 Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw

 Any Impact of the KD 146 Post Position Draw?

Yes and Maybe. This morning at Churchill Downs was the post position draw. Little drama, but there might be some impact as a result of the draw.

This year's Kentucky Derby will yield a fast pace. The weather is forecast to be near perfect. All of the favorites have landed outside positions. Speedy and forwardly placed types are on the outside and will have to giddy-up from the gate opening in order to find good position before going into the first turn. There is also a little speed coming out of the near middle post positions making it a speedy proposition for all the forwardly placed types. Such a speed scenario should benefit the trackers and closers most of which have landed the inside posts for potential ground saving trips.

Tiz the Law drew post position #17. He will need to run his race to get that post off the schnide as no horse has ever won from that positon. Speedster, Authentic, will be to his outside in post #18. He will have to gun it to avoid getting stuck wide going into the first turn. #16 Honor AP and #15 Ny Traffic will also have to get it on when the gates open in order to position themselves first.

#17 Tiz the Law is the one to beat and the outside draw may have minimal affect. It is the Derby. Any journeyman handicapper will have to HEDGE and put together a alternate ticket to take into account  these pace factors or others.

Impact on Our KD 146 Notable Nine

The post position draw has little impact on our top nine, but two defections due to minor injuries has us revamping our Notable Nine. Caracaro and Art Collector will not be in the field.

1. #17 Tiz the Law
2. #18 Authentic
3. #16 Honor AP
4. #3 Enforceable
5. #7 Winning Impression
6. #2 Max Player
7. #4 Storm the Court
8. #6 King Guillermo
9. #5 Major Fed

This year's Kentucky Derby will be very special. The excitement will continue to build leading up to the first Saturday in September