Good Turf on Superfecta Sunday

 On this Superfecta Sunday we go to the Big Apple for a Turf Sprint on good ground.

Baqueduct Race 8 {Soaring Softly Stakes~G3~6 Furlongs~TURF~3 year-old~Fillies~Graded Stakes}

A very competitive field of ten will venture out of the gates on good Turf. 

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

There are plenty of speedsters and forwardly placed types to keep this pace hot. Half the field has gone this exact distance. Only one has traveled over the Baqueduct (Belmont at Aqueduct) course. Speed numbers are very close making this one a wide open affair. It should be a splendid race on this Superfecta Sunday.

#5 Kairyu [IRE] (Carmouche / DeVaux) will be dropping in class and distance. She holds the second highest last out speed number and two sound workouts. This gal has won at this distance over in Ireland. She should track and strike in the stretch. A daughter of Kuroshio [AUS], she holds a 50% win rate.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#7 Amidst Waves (J. Velazquez / Weaver) has progressively improved her speed figs in each of her last three races. She holds the highest last out speed number and two solid workouts. She should track the pace closely seeking first jump and the trackers. A daughter of Midshipman, she is 66% in the money from six starts.

#9 Pipsy [IRE] (Prat / Walden) will be part of the speed scenario. She has notched two straight wins over in Ireland as she makes her first North American start. This filly loves a little give in the ground as well as the distance. A daughter of Kodiak [GB], she is 100% in the money from three starts.

#13 Marco T (M. Franco / Clement) is a horse for the course and distance. She is another that should track the pace closely. This girl has has doubled-up her last two speed figs and has put in a hearty workout. A daughter of Kantharos, she is 100% in the money from five starts.

Other Wagering Interests.

#1 Tiger Belle [IRE] (McCarthy / S.A. Joseph) has competed well over good Turf in her native France. A daughter of Cotal Glory [GB], she is 57% in the money from seven starts. Should sit in behind the leaders.

#8 Golden Ghost [GB] (D. Davis / M. Casse) has increased her speed figs in her last three starts. A daughter of Medaglia d'Oro, she has a 28% win rate from seven starts. Should be part of the speed. 

10 Cent Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#5 Kairyu [IRE]  +  #7 Amidst Waves  +  #9 Pipsy [IRE]  +  #13 Marco T.

10 Cent Superfecta Straight ($5.60)

#5 Kairyu [IRE]  /  #7 Amidst Waves,  #9 Pipsy {IRE]  /  #7,  #9,  #13 Marco T,  #1 Tiger Belle [IRE],  #8 Golden Ghost [GB}  /  ALL.

Happy Mother's Day to the lady handicappers!!!

Best of luck with all your Superfecta Sunday plays!!! 

Let's Go Long on the Dirt at Oaklawn Park

 Congratulations to jockey, Brian Hernandez, trainer, Kenny McPeek, and the connections of Mystik Dan on the winning of the 150th Kentucky Derby.

On this Superfecta Sunday we take a look at a "marathon" race, the lucky last of the Oaklawn Park card as they close a fantastic 2023-2024 racing season.

Oaklawn Park Race 11 {1 3/4 mile~3 year-old Up~Starter Allowance}

A nice field of thirteen will go to the gate in this last race of the Oaklawn season.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

There is sufficient speed to keep the pace rolling. Speed figs for the majority of the field are fairly close. Only four horses have gone this distance; the remaining will stretch out to this distance. All but one are used to racing over the Oaklawn track. It should be a fine race to cap off the Oaklawn Park season.

#7 Polterer (Arrieta / Compton) is the deserved favorite with the second highest last out speed number. He finished fourth at this distance in his only try. Look for him to be part of the pace scenario. This lad loves the dirt and the Oaklawn track. A son of Ghostzapper, he is 61% in the money from twenty-six starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#9 Indian Gulch (De la Cruz / Van Berg) will present a serious challenge with the highest last out speed number and two superb workouts. He will close into the pace. This guy also holds the second highest speed number at this distance having run it twice. A son of Liaison, he is 56% in the money from fifty-three starts.

#8 Canadian Pharoah (P. Lopez / D. Ward) should contend with the highest speed number at the distance having hit the board once in his two starts at same. This guy will track and close into the stretch. A son of American Pharoah, he is 27% in the money from thirty-three starts.

#4 Royal Act (K. Asmussen /  S. Asmussen) will stretch out to this distance with three good last out speed numbers and one sound workout. He does like the dirt and has 33% win rate over the Oaklawn track. Another son of American Pharoah, he is 34% in the money from twenty-three starts.

Other Wagering Interests

#11 Rungius (Vazquez / Levine) finished third in his last in a race close to this distance running a very good speed number. Two solid workouts add to his prep. This guy has the tactical speed to stay the pace. A son of Liam's Map, he is 77% in the money from thirteen starts.

#1 Big Paper (Bejarano / Van Berg) will track the pace closely and strike in the stretch. He holds the third highest last out speed number and two sound workouts. This gelding will stretch out to the distance. A son of Empire Maker, he is 64% in the money from twenty-five starts.

10 CENT Superfecta Box ($2.40)

#7 Polterer  +  #9 Indian Gulch  +  #8 Canadian Pharoah  +  #4 Royal Act.

10 CENT Superfecta Straight ($8.00)

#7 Polterer  /  $9 Indian Gulch,  #8 Canadian Pharoah  /  #9, #8, #4 Royal Act,  #11Rungius,  #1 Big Paper  /  ALL.

May all your Superfecta Sunday tickets cash!!!

  

Kentucky Derby 150

 Today is the greatest race in North America, the Kentucky Derby. After months of prep races and weeks of final preparation we have a full field of twenty going to the gate.

Churchill Downs Race 12 {Kentucky Derby~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

The field is set with twenty in the gate.

Past performances used:  DRF Classic.

The track came up sloppy yesterday on Oaks Day. It should be drying out today as there may be little or no rain according to the forecast. Though this dry-out could create a deep and tiring track. Consequently, the workout tab becomes a key performance indicator. The KPI's are important for KD 150.

Best Workouts:

#6 Just Steel.  #4 Catching Freedom.  #7 Honor Marie.  #17 Fierceness.

Beyer Speed Figure progressions (race to race)

#12 Track Phantom (7).  #19 Resilience (6).  #4 Catching Freedom (5).  #7 Honor Marie (5).  #11 Forever Young (5).  #18 Stronghold (5).  #2 Sierra Leone (4).  #6 Just Steel (4).  #16 Grand Mo the First (4).  

Highest Beyer Speed Figures.

#17 Fierceness 110.

#3 Mystic Dan 101 (in the slop at Oaklawn).

#2 Sierra Leone 98.

#4 Catching Freedom 97.

#7 Honor Marie and #8 Just a Touch 96.

#6 Just Steel 95.

Others with competitive speed figures that could put them in the race:

#12 Track Phantom 94.  #1 Dornoch,  #11 Forever Young (converted Time Form figure), and  #14 Endlessly.  #5 Catalytic and #19 Resilience 90.

Race Flow

There is significant speed in the race that could result in a super speedy pace. Looking at yesterdays Aleysheba-G2 (CD Race7) the Japanese may have tipped their hand as the #8 runner T.O. Saint Denis [JPN] took off like a bandit and held on to finish second. Could be a foreshadowing of this running of KD 150.

Analysis

It is difficult to get around the two favorites as both are primed and ready to win. It comes down to how they get a trip. Both may meet in the stretch run and battle to the wire. Based in part on the KPI's mentioned above will key both of these lads in our Exactas and create a hedge exacta should both falter on their way to Derby glory.

Exacta Wheel ($8.00) Number 1.

#17 Fierceness  //  #2 Sierra Leone,  #4 Catching Freedom,  #6 Just Steel,  #7 Honor Marie,  #8 Just a Touch,  #11 Forever Young, #15 Domestic Product,  #19 Resilience.

Exacta Wheel ($8.00) Number 2.

#2 Sierra Leone  //  #4,  #6,  #7,  #8,  #11,  #15,  #17,  #19.

$1 Exacta Box ($12.00) Should the favorites falter. A hedge bet.

#4 Catching Freedom  +  #7 Honor Marie  +  #11 forever Yound  +  #15 Domestic Product.

Best of luck to you in all your wagers on todays Great Kentucky Derby card.