Notable Nine for Kentucky Derby 151

 The Kentucky Derby 151 is this Saturday. On this "Thurby" we take a look at our top nine horses that can be expected to run well in the race. We'll look at lay-out some of the stats of these horses in post-position order. 

#4 Rodriguez (M. Garcia / Baffert) can be expected to be on or near the lead. He has worked well during the last thirty days. Son of 2020 Derby winner, Authentic.

Top Beyer Speed fig:  101

Last Race / Place:  Wood Memorial 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $104.5.

Jockey Trainer Win %.  M. Garcia (.05) / Baffert (.30) routes.

#7 Luxor Cafe (Moreira / Noriyuki) should travel close to pace. He punched his ticket on the Japan road to the Derby. Son of 2015 Derby winner, American Pharoah.

Top Speed Number: posted a Time Form rating of 103.

Last Race / Place:  Japan 1st. (winner of four races in a row).

Avg. earnings per race:  $63.1.

No Stats on the Jockey / Trainer win percentages.

#8 Journalism (Rispoli / McCarthy) is the deserved favorite and will be hard to beat. He should track the pace closely. Son of Curlin.

Top Beyer speed fig:  108.

Last Race / Place: Santa Anita Derby 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $127.7.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  Rispoli (.22) / McCarthy (.18) routes.

#9 Burnham Square (B. Hernandez / Wilkes) will be tracking and closing. Strong work-out tab. Son of Liam's Map.

Top Beyer Speed fig: 96.

Last Race / Place:  Bluegrass Stakes 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $162.9.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  B. Hernandez (.18) / Wilkes (.13) routes.

#10 Grande (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) should be tracking the pace closely. Three race progression with one decent workout. Another son of Curlin.

Top Beyer Speed fig: 97.

Last Race / Place:  Wood Memorial 2nd.

Avg. earnings per race:  $76.0.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  J. Velazquez (12) / Pletcher (.17) routes.

#14 Tiztastic (Rosario / Asmussen) will be tracking and closing into the pace. Superb three peaking workouts. Ready for the race. A son of Tiz the Law.

Top Beyer Speed fig:  95.

Last Race / Place: Louisiana Derby 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $193.7.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  Rosario (.13) / Asmussen (.16) routes.

#17 Sandman (J. Ortiz / M. Casse) should be tracking and closing swiftly. Two good workouts. Gray is good. A son of Tapit.

Top Beyer speed fig:  99.

Last Race / Place:  Arkansas Derby 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $156.8.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  J. Ortiz (.24) / M. Casse (.15) routes.

#18 Sovereignty (J. Alvarado / W. Mott) is another one of the closing crew. Three robust workouts in the last thirty days. Son of Into Mischief.

Top Beyer Speed fig:  95.

Last Race / Place:  Florida Derby 2nd.

Avg. earnings per race:  $114.5.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  J. Alvarado (.16) / W. Mott (.13) routes.

#19 Chunk of Gold (Loveberry / E. West) is more of a tracker that could get first jump on the closers. Four power workouts in the last thirty days. Son of Preservationist.

Top Beyer Speed fig:  92 (earned twice in his last two)

Last Race / PLace:  Louisiana Derby 2nd.

Avg. earnings per race:  $87.2.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  Loveberry (.13) / E. West (.08) routes.

We will post our KD 151 picks early Saturday (5/3) morning. Look out for any scratches to the field in the meantime.

Best of luck to all your plays leading up to the Run for the Roses!!!

Ladies on the Turf for Stakes Saturday

 We venture to South Florida for a fine Stakes race over the Turf.

Gulfstream Park Race 9 {Monroe Stakes~1 1/16 mile~TURF~3 year-old Up~Fillies/Mares~Stakes}

With two scratches a talented field of nine will strut on the green in this featured affair.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

This race comes up light on speed with one speedster and two tracking the pace closely. Speed figs are fairly close. All have raced over the turf, at the distance, and on the Gulfstream course. It should be a marvelous race to wager on and watch.

#6 Life's An Audible (Zayas / Pletcher) comes to the race with the third highest last out speed number and four efficient workouts. She is strong on the Turf, at the distance, and over the course. Look for her in the Tracker pack. A daughter of Audible, she is 60% in the money from ten starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#9 Ozara [IRE] (Jaramillo / Clement) should track the pace closely with the highest last out speed number and one sound workout. She is a lover of the Turf, the distance, and the course. This gal exits a grade two event and from there will stretch out to the distance. A daughter of Lope de Vega [IRE], she is 77% in the money from nine starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#7 Breath Away [GB] (P. Lopez / Clement) comes in with the second highest last out speed number. She will be part of the tracker pack. This gal is another who relishes the Turf, distance, and course. She is the morning line favorite. A daughter of Bated Breath [GB], she is 73% in the money from fifteen starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#8 Starship Agenda (Reyes / Dwoskin) has improved her speed figs in each of her last three races. She holds the fourth highest last out speed number and three strong workouts. Look for her to be battling in the tracker pack. A daughter of Always Dreaming, she is 53% in the money from fifteen starts.

#4 Sensitivity (Ra. Maragh / Sano) is another that has improved her speed numbers in each of her last three races. This mare won her last and has two wins from three starts over the Gulfstream Turf. She will be closing should the pace heat up. A daughter of Street Sense, she is 42% in the money from fourteen starts.

#5 Dancing N Dixie (Bravo / M. Casse) exits a grade two with a decent speed number. She has put in two robust workouts in the last thirty days. Another that will be amongst the tracker pack. A daughter of Neolithic, she is 50% in the money from fourteen starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#6 Life's An Audible  ///  #9 Ozara [IRE],  #7 Breath Away [GB],  #8 Starship Agenda,  #4 Sensitivity,  #5 Dancing N Dixie.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#9,  #7,  #8,  #4,  #5  ///  #6 Life's An Audible.

Best of Luck with all your Stakes Saturday plays!!!

Study-up as KD 151 week begins tomorrow. 

Stakes Saturday in Lexington, Kentucky

 On this Stakes Saturday we take in the last KD 151 points race.

Keeneland Race 9 {Lexington Stakes~G3~1 1/16 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A reduced field of seven will go to the gate essentially for the purse money.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

There is enough speed to produce an honest pace. Speed numbers are very close giving any of these colts a chance to win. Only two have raced over the Keeneland dirt. Four will be stretching out to the distance. All have been well prepped and ready for battle. It should be a fine race.

#3 Bullard (Rispoli / McCarthy) will stretch out to this distance with a decent last out speed number and four strong workouts. He should track the pace and strike in the stretch. A son of Gun Runner, he is 100% in the money from three starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#8 Hypnus (L. Saez / McPeek) is another tracker with a decent last out speed number at a longer route and two superb peaking workouts. He has experience at this distance winning once in two tries. A son of Into Mischief, he is 33% in the money from three starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#7 Praetor (Prat / C. Brown) should be forwardly placed and could be the controlling speed. This guy comes in from Gulfstream Park with the third highest speed number and two fine workouts. Another son of Into Mischief, he is 100% in the money from three starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#6 Gosger (I. Ortiz / B. Walsh) will be making his third career start with the highest last out speed number and four supreme peaking workouts. He should track the pace closely. A son of Nyquist, he is 100% in the money from two starts.

#2 Bracket Buster (M. Franco / Oliver) comes in off a modest layoff. He holds the highest speed number at the distance and three solid workouts. This guy is another that will track the pace closely. A son of Vekoma, he is 50% in the money from four starts.

#5 Native Runner (J. Ortiz / McPeek) comes in with the second highest last out speed number and two speedy workouts. This guy will be pursuing his third win in a row. He has tactical speed and will adapt to the pace. A son of Laoban, he is 50% in the money from six starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#3 Bullard  ///  #8 Hypnus,  #7 Praetor,  #6 Gosger,  #2 Bracket Buster,  #5 Native Runner.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#8,  #7,  #6,  #2,  #5  ///  #3 Bullard.

Best of luck with all of your Stakes Saturday plays!!!

Stakes Saturday at the "Big A"

 We venture to the "Big Apple" for one of the last remaining Kentucky Derby preps.

Aqueduct Race 12 {Wood Memorial~G2~1 1/8 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A reduced field of ten will enter the gate in this annual Derby prep.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

There is plenty of speedy and forwardly placed types to keep the pace sizzling. Speed numbers are fairly close with two posting three-digit figures. Half the field will try the Aqueduct dirt for the first time. All but two are nominated to the Triple Crown. The entire field seems to be well prepped as they look to rack up Derby points. It should be a fantastic race on a very good Aqueduct card.

#2 Captain Cook (M. Franco / R. Dutrow) is one of two that have won at this distance. He holds the fourth highest last out speed number and four superb workouts. This guy should track the pace closely looking to position for the stretch run. He will be seeking his third win in a row showing a three-race speed fig progression. A son of Practical Joke, he has a 66% win rate from three starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#8 Passion Rules (Carmouche / B. Cox) is another that should track the pace as he seeks his fourth win in a row. On a last out win he holds a good speed fig and two powerful workouts. He will be one of seven stretching out to this distance. It will be his first effort over the Aqueduct track. A son of Firesian Fire, he holds a 100% win rate from three starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#1 Rodriguez (M. Smith / Baffert) will show speed. He had a very good speed fig last out and has put in three strong peaking workouts in preparation. This will be his first start over the Aqueduct track as he stretches out to this distance. He is one of the runners that has posted a triple digit speed number. A son of Authentic, he 1s 100% in the money from four starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#5 Sand Devil (J. Lezcano / L. Rice) has hit the board with triple digit speed figs in his last three races. This lad should be part of the speed team on the front-end. He loves the dirt and the Aqueduct track as he stretches out to the distance. A son of Violence, he is 100% in the money from four starts.

#7 Grande (D. Davis / Pletcher) is another that has won at this distance. He will be making his third start after winning the first two. He comes in from Gulfstream Park with a very good last out speed number and three sound workouts. This colt should sit right behind the speed. A son of Curlin, he has a 100% win rate from two starts.

#11 Statesman (Marin / McGaughey) should settle into a good tracking position. He holds the second highest last out speed number and four diligent workouts. It will be his first try over the Aqueduct oval after two wins in a row down at Tampa Bay Downs. A son of Constitution, he is 60% in the money from five starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#2 Captain Cook  //  #8 Passion Rules,  #1 Rodriguez,  #5 Sand Devil,  #7 Grande,  #11 Statesman.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#8,  #1,  #5,  #7,  #11  //  #2 Captain Cook.

Best of luck to you on all your Stakes Saturday wagers!!!

 

Florida Derby Day

 Off we go to South Florida to take in one of the most consequential races along the Kentucky Derby trail, the Florida Derby.

Gulfstream Park Race 14 {Florida Derby~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A fabulous field of ten will go to the gate with KD 151 points on the line.

Past performances used:  Equibase.

There will be plenty of speed and forwardly placed types to produce a sizzling pace. Speed numbers are fairly close. Two have posted triple digit speed figs. Only three have gone this distance with the rest stretching out. All but one raced over the Gulfstream track. It should be a fantastic race as we draw closer to that magnificent first Saturday in May.

#8 Madaket Road (M. Smith / Baffert) comes in from Oaklawn Park with the highest last out speed number and three powerful workouts. This guy has the tactical speed to adapt to the pace and finish strong. He is one of many that will stretch out to the distance. A son of Quality Road, he is 100% in the money from four starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#4 Disruptor (I.Ortiz / Pletcher) should take a good step forward as he stretches out from seven furlongs in his third start. He holds the second highest last out speed number and two diligent workouts. He should be part of the speed scenario. This lad loves the dirt and the track. A son of Gun Runner, he is 100% in the money from two starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#9 Tappan Street (L. Saez / B. Cox) is another making his third start as well as stretching out to the distance. He holds a good last out speed number and four very strong workouts. This colt is primed and ready for a good effort as he tracks the pace closely. A son of Into Mischief, he is 100% in the money from two starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#10 Sovereignity (M. Franco / W. Mott) is the deserved favorite with the third highest last out speed number and two solid peaking workouts. This guy should track the pace closely and stride out in the stretch. With 60 Kentucky Derby points already, he is assured a gate for the big race. Even as the morning line favorite, he does not need to win. Another son of Into Mischief, he is 75% in the money from four races.

#1 Neoequos (Zayas / S.A. Joseph) is the other horse in the race that has earned a triple digit speed fig. This guy should be part of the pace on the front-end. He will stretch out with two supreme peaking workouts. He loves the dirt and the track. A son of Neolithic, he is 83% in the money from six starts.

#7 Enterdadragon (D. Davis / D'Angelo) holds the fourth highest last out speed fig coming into the stretch-out. Two efficient workouts help his cause. This guy has the tactical speed to stay the pace. He is one of five that have already notched two wins. A son of Outwork, he is 44% in the money from nine starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#8 Madaket Road  ///  #4 Disruptor,  #9 Tappan Street,  #10 Sovereignity,  #1 Neoequos,  #7 Enterdadragon.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#4,  #9,  #10,  #1,  #7  ///  #8 Madaket Road.

Best of luck with all of your Stakes Saturday wagers!!!