Saturday, April 15, 2023

The Last of the Derby Preps

 On this Stakes Saturday we look in on the last of the Kentucky Derby preps giving points for entry in to the starting gate.

Keeneland Race 9 {Lexington Stakes~G3~1 1/16 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A very good field of ten will enter the gate in this traditional last Derby prep on the long road to the Kentucky Derby. 

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

There is plenty of speed in the outside posts to keep this race humming. Speed figs are very close which should make it quite competitive. Only one horse, #6 Disarm, can make it into the KD 149 gate should he place first, second, or third. All others, nominated to the Triple Crown could conceivably go on to the Preakness. It should be a fantastic race on a Stakes rich card.

#5 First Mission (L. Saez / B. Cox) is the deserved favorite with the second highest (tie) last out speed number and two superb workouts. This guy could tuck in right behind the speed train and strike in the stretch. He has won at this distance. A son of Kentucky Derby winner, Street Sense, he is 100% in the money from two starts.

$1 WIN  /  $2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#6 Disarm (J. Ortiz / Asmussen) should be up to the task sharing the second highest last out speed number at a longer distance and showing three sound workouts. Look for him to track and go. One of three runner that have yet to travel this exact distance. A son of Gun Runner, he is 100% in the money from four career starts.

$1 PLACE  /  $2 SHOW.

#8 Empirestrikesfast (Dettori / Mott) will be making his second start after posting the highest speed figure of this crew. He has three solid workouts in the last thirty days. Look for him to be part of the speedsters on the front end. A son of Empire Maker, he scored a victory in his only race.

$2 SHOW.

#3 Demolition Duke (Prat / B. Cox) will be stretching out to this distance in his third start of the form cycle. He holds two hearty workouts. This guy is another tracker up from Fair Grounds. A son of Good Magic, he is 100% in the money from two starts.

$1 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#11 Arabian Lion (I Ortiz / Baffert) will show speed from the gate release. Holds the highest overall speed number of this group. Son of Justify, he is 50% itm.

#7 Denington (B. Hernandez / McPeek) will track and close coming out of a longer route race. Another son of Gun Runner, he is 44% itm from nine strarts.

$1 Saturday Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#5 First Mission  //  #6 Disarm,  #8 Empirestrikesfast,  #3 Demolition Duke,  #11 Arabian Lion,  #7 Denington.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#6 Disarm,  #8 Empirestrikesfast,  #3 Demolition Duke,  #11 Arabian Lion,  #7 Denington  //  #5 First Mission.


Best of luck with all your wagers as we march on to the Derby!!!

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