Thursday, May 1, 2025

Notable Nine for Kentucky Derby 151

 The Kentucky Derby 151 is this Saturday. On this "Thurby" we take a look at our top nine horses that can be expected to run well in the race. We'll look at lay-out some of the stats of these horses in post-position order. 

#4 Rodriguez (M. Garcia / Baffert) can be expected to be on or near the lead. He has worked well during the last thirty days. Son of 2020 Derby winner, Authentic.

Top Beyer Speed fig:  101

Last Race / Place:  Wood Memorial 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $104.5.

Jockey Trainer Win %.  M. Garcia (.05) / Baffert (.30) routes.


#7 Luxor Cafe (Moreira / Noriyuki) should travel close to pace. He punched his ticket on the Japan road to the Derby. Son of 2015 Derby winner, American Pharoah.

Top Speed Number: posted a Time Form rating of 103.

Last Race / Place:  Japan 1st. (winner of four races in a row).

Avg. earnings per race:  $63.1.

No Stats on the Jockey / Trainer win percentages.


#8 Journalism (Rispoli / McCarthy) is the deserved favorite and will be hard to beat. He should track the pace closely. Son of Curlin.

Top Beyer speed fig:  108.

Last Race / Place: Santa Anita Derby 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $127.7.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  Rispoli (.22) / McCarthy (.18) routes.


#9 Burnham Square (B. Hernandez / Wilkes) will be tracking and closing. Strong work-out tab. Son of Liam's Map.

Top Beyer Speed fig: 96.

Last Race / Place:  Bluegrass Stakes 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $162.9.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  B. Hernandez (.18) / Wilkes (.13) routes.


#10 Grande (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) should be tracking the pace closely. Three race progression with one decent workout. Another son of Curlin.

Top Beyer Speed fig: 97.

Last Race / Place:  Wood Memorial 2nd.

Avg. earnings per race:  $76.0.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  J. Velazquez (12) / Pletcher (.17) routes.


#14 Tiztastic (Rosario / Asmussen) will be tracking and closing into the pace. Superb three peaking workouts. Ready for the race. A son of Tiz the Law.

Top Beyer Speed fig:  95.

Last Race / Place: Louisiana Derby 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $193.7.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  Rosario (.13) / Asmussen (.16) routes.


#17 Sandman (J. Ortiz / M. Casse) should be tracking and closing swiftly. Two good workouts. Gray is good. A son of Tapit.

Top Beyer speed fig:  99.

Last Race / Place:  Arkansas Derby 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $156.8.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  J. Ortiz (.24) / M. Casse (.15) routes.


#18 Sovereignty (J. Alvarado / W. Mott) is another one of the closing crew. Three robust workouts in the last thirty days. Son of Into Mischief.

Top Beyer Speed fig:  95.

Last Race / Place:  Florida Derby 2nd.

Avg. earnings per race:  $114.5.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  J. Alvarado (.16) / W. Mott (.13) routes.


#19 Chunk of Gold (Loveberry / E. West) is more of a tracker that could get first jump on the closers. Four power workouts in the last thirty days. Son of Preservationist.

Top Beyer Speed fig:  92 (earned twice in his last two)

Last Race / PLace:  Louisiana Derby 2nd.

Avg. earnings per race:  $87.2.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  Loveberry (.13) / E. West (.08) routes.


We will post our KD 151 picks early Saturday (5/3) morning. Look out for any scratches to the field in the meantime.

Best of luck to all your plays leading up to the Run for the Roses!!!


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