Thursday Strategy Session

Thursday Strategy Session

Handicapping Basics for New or Novice Horseplayers

With limited sporting events going on due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many sports enthusiasts are looking at horse racing to fill the void. In fact, if one looks at the handles gathered by smaller tracks (Fonner in Nebraska and Will Rogers Downs in Oklahoma) you might surmise that our cousins in the sports betting realm are looking for action.

Golden Gate, Santa Anita, and Churchill Downs will get under way this horse racing weekend.  Horse racing leads the way to sports recovery.

What are some simple metrics a new or novice horseplayer can look at to make a somewhat intelligent selection in a given race? Without going deep into the weeds on how to decipher the past performances, there are two different data points to look at to pinpoint a strong selection in any given race. Speed numbers and basic Jockey / Trainer stats.

Speed Numbers.

Speed Numbers calculate the performance of a horse in its previous races. They are compiled by various purveyor's of past performances utilizing their proprietary formulas. Such figures allow horseplayers to compare the ability of the horses in a given race. The higher the speed number the better the past performance. You can find them in the box that displays the horses summary statistics and on each racing line for that horse.

The numbers or "key performance indicators" one should focus on is:

• Last three Speed Numbers.
• Speed number at the distance.
• Average of the Last three Speed numbers.

All of these will assist you in ascertaining which horse may be the better horse in the field. Mind you this is a very basic approach, but you will be surprised how often these three "key performance indicators" predict the outcome of the race.

Jockey / Trainer Statistics

These statistics will also help in your overall analysis of any race. These are found on the past performance next to the Jockey's name as well as the Trainer's name. These are very basic, but they are a good indication of how strong both jockey and trainer are as they bring their charge to the race. Additionally you can find the Jockey/Trainer combo stat usually on the bottom right-hand corner of the past performance. This figure shows how well they perform when they team up.

Utilizing the Data

You can grab all of these data points to find the top contenders in any given race. Lay them out on a sheet of paper next to each entrant in the race and give it your analytic best. You will find that utilizing these very basic data points will help you make great picks and potentially round out your exotic (exacta, trifecta, superfecta, and pentafecta) plays.