To All Our Horse Loving Friends

Wishing you the Very Best this Holiday Season.

May your Horse be Swift.

May your Day be Beautiful.

And

May your Bankroll enjoy a Hearty Increase in 2010.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Feliz Navidad y Prospero Ano Nuevo.

Horsecents Analytics will be back in action on December 26th hoping to finish out the year 2009 strong with an eye towards another fine run towards the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

                                                                                                 

From New Orleans to Hollywood; Sunday Horse Racing

We journey to Fairgrounds and Hollywood for some good Sunday horse racing.  The weather should be pleasant at both racetracks to help us in our handicapping skills.

Fairgrounds Race 7 {6 furlongs~3 year old Up~Allowance}
This sets up as a very good race.  Any of the horses in here can pull off the win.  Despite the 120 day layoff we like V Jack (Theriot / Guillot).  His workouts have been the strongest of any of the horses in here and his speed number matches up with all of them.  Having run and won only one race, we think he will improve with a solid performance today.  Mambo Dancer (Lebron / Clyshaw) is another one that has run only one and won. He has put in some good works and should also improve today.  Speight the Halo (Mena / Foley) holds the highest speed numbers overall and on the surface.  His has a nice race progression and a strong work out.  Speight the Halo will be there at the end.  Goal to Goal (Graham / Rousell) should he go, will have the speed and should be able to hold on for a piece of the purse.  Let's play Fairgrounds.

$2 SHOW:  #3 V Jack
Interestingly there is no 10 CENT Superfecta for this race.


Hollywood Race 9 {Hollywood Starlet~G1~1 1/16 mile~2 year old~fillies}
Yesterday the boys had their turn in the spotlight. Today the girls have their turn.  Is there a chance one of these may end up in the Kentucky Oaks come this May?  You betta.  All of these gals have worked out well and have comparable last out speed numbers.  We like Beautician (Gomez / McPeek).  She has some terrific workouts peaking for this race.  She will be closing under a good ride by Garrett Gomez, no doubt.  Amen Hallelujah (Solis / Dutrow) will surprise.  She has the highest overall speed number in addition to some sharp workouts. She is rested and ready.  She looked good at Arlington Park earlier this summer.  Blind Luck (Bejerano / Hollendorfer) is likely to be the favorite.  And why not? She has put in some monster workouts and is 100% in the money during her start-up career.  Jerry Hollendorfer is a trainer that knows how to train his charges for a peak performance.  He has her ready.  Certainly, the one to beat.  Under the guidance of trainer, Bob Baffert, who won for races yesterday, Miss Heather Lee (Espinoza / Baffert) should be ready to run well.  She has put in three great works and has steadily improved in each race.  She should be in contention for a major piece of the purse.  The one to watch.  Let's play Hollywood.

$2 SHOW:  #7 Beautician
10 CENT Superfecta:  #7 Beautician / #4 Amen Hallelujah / #3 Blind Luck, #1 Miss Heather Lee / #3, #1

Saturday Results
Hollywood R9.  Our pick, Noble's Promise, finished 2nd for $2.10 in show money.  Superfecta went 1-6-5-3.
We are nearing the end of the year.  Bankroll sits at $14.60.

Hooray for Hollywood

One of the prep races for Derby glory is today at Hollywood Park. The Cash Call Futurity. Make notes on all these; soon the road to the roses will officially begin when all of these turn three on January 1, 2010.

Hollywood Race 9 {Cash Call Futurity~G1~1 1/16 mile~2 year old~Stakes}
Trainer, Bob Baffert has three big guns in this race. Could it be possible that he grabs a trifecta? Not likely, as there is one horse that will run well and has a realistic shot of winning. Noble's Promise (Bejerano / McPeek) looks like he is primed and ready for this race. He has had four fabulous work outs and a good last out speed number. Also he is 100% in the money over the surface and at the distance. He will be near the front end, but will have to hold of the Baffert trained, Lookin' At Lucky (Gomez / Baffert). Lookin' At Lucky has nearly the same stats and also has put in some fine workouts leading up to this event. It will be an exciting race between these two in the stretch. The other two Baffert trained horses will figure very prominently in this contest. The Program (Espinoza / Baffert) has put in some strong peaking type workouts. He has improved with every race run. Marcello (Valdvia / Baffert) also has some solid work outs. He will be moving up in distance today, but is also improving nicely. Let's play Hollywood.

$2 SHOW: #6 Noble's Promise
10 CENT Superfecta: #6 Noble's Promise / #1 Lookin' At Lucky / #3 The Program / #4 Marcello

Friday's Results
Hawthorne R5. Our pick, Cruise, finished 2nd for $2.10 in show money. No Superfecta was placed as they took (scratched) our Cerveza away.
Hawthorne R8. Our pick, Cactus Town, finished 3rd for $4.20 in show money. Superfecta went 8-1-7-2.
We bumped our bankroll up to $14.60.

We'll be Home for Hawthorne

Here in wintry Chicago we get to look at two races at Hawthorne Race Track. Luckily the temperature will be in the mid-thirties so racing should be pretty competitive.

Hawthorne Race 5 {6 furlongs~3 year old Up~fillies/mares~Optional claiming}
A very nice little sprint race with a seven horse field. Most of the interest will be settling on Afleet Deceit (Sukie / Becker) with the highest speed numbers across the board. She has also put in three good works in the last thirty days, but has had a long layoff. Cruise (Wade / Janks) might be able to pull off the win here. She has had a good last out speed number and a couple peaking workouts. We like her in this spot. Cerveza (Hernandez / Salazar) likes Hawthorne and has worked out nicely for this race. Grace Almighty (Perez / Rivelli) should round out our superfecta play. Let's make our play.

$2 SHOW: #3 Cruise
10 CENT Superfecta: #3 Cruise / #5 Cerveza / #1 Afleet Deceit / #4 Grace Almighty

Hawthorne Race 8 {6 1/2 furlongs~3 year old Up~Illinois Allowance}
A full field assembles for this solidly competitive sprint. If Cactus Town (Riggs / Berndt) can maintain the lead he will wire this field for his fourth lifetime victory at Hawthorne. He has solid speed numbers overall and on the surface. He also has the best speed number last out and a couple of good works leading up to this. Peterman (Sanchez / Rosin) looks solid going into this one. He should be the surprise in this race. Cart Doctor (Sukie / Cristel) also will run strong with a decent last out speed number and the strongest workout in preparation for this race. Executive Coach (Stanley / Kotkomp) is a consistent performer and specialist at this distance. Our only concern is that he has run fifteen races already this year. Let's make our second play at Hawthorne.

$2 SHOW: #7 Cactus Town
10 CENT Superfecta: #7 Cactus Town / #3 Cart Doctor / #8 Peterman / #4 Executive Coach

Thursday Results
Fairgrounds R6. Our pick, Forest Queen, finished 4th. We scrapped the superfecta play as half the field scratched. We have had a tough time handicapping the Fairgrounds races this year.
Hollywood R7. Our choice, El Martillo, was scratched from the race. No Superfecta; small field.
Our bankroll drops to its lowest level. We will supplement it with an additional $10.00 for a total Bankroll of $12.40.

Farigrounds and Hollywood on Turf

Today we look at two Turf races; one at Farigrounds and one at Hollywood. Should be fun. Don't forget to vote for your "Moment of the Year" at ntra.com. There were so many good ones this year, it will be a tough decision.

Fairgrounds Race 6 {1 mile~Turf~3 year old Up~fillies/mares~Allowance}
New Orleans has been deluged with rain since last Saturday when they had to cancel one third of their card. On Sunday they cancelled the full card. New Orleans has received 22 inches of rain this month. It is doubtful that it will go off on the turf so there will probably be some scratches. Forest Queen (Sellers / Geier) looks like she might have a slight edge. She has done well over fast dirt and over an off track. Despite a long layoff she has trained well and has the speed numbers to be able to get the victory. Should Ford Gallop (Hernandez / Stidham) draw in, she will be ready to compete for the appearance in the winners circle with good work outs and solid speed numbers. Also, she is tied with the highest speed number on an off track. Tied with Seagull (Albarado / Howard). Seagull has a solid last out speed number and three solid workouts going into this race. She should be a strong factor in this race. Two horses that look like they will make a solid run for a piece of the purse are Bill's Presence (Geroux / Mathews) and Pearl of Valor (Jacinto / Stewart). Let's make a Fairgrounds play.

$2 SHOW: #2 Forest Queen
10 CENT Superfecta: #2 Forest Queen / #13 Ford Gallop / #9 Seagull / #5 Bill's Presence, #6 Pearl of Valor

Hollywood Race 7 {6 furlongs~Turf~3 year old Up~Allowance}
A very small field assembles for this race. Three of the horses in here are coming back from extended layoffs. Even with the layoff, Compari (Gomez / Jones) looks like the one to beat. Has great speed and tremendous workouts leading up to this race. El Martillo (M. Garcia / Baffert) has put in some quality workouts and has a nice last out speed number. Ghost Ruler (Talamo / Capestro) has some dynamite works in preparation for this race. He should run well as the distance specialist of the group. Let's play Hollywood.

$2 SHOW: #1 El Martillo
NO 10 CENT Superfecta with a small field.

Last Sunday's (12/13) Results
Fairgrounds R8. Full card was cancelled due to heavy rains.
Remington Park R10. Our pick, Ron the Greek, finished 4th. Superfecta went 7-3-5-6.
Bankroll dips to $4.40.

My Vote for Moment of theYear

The National Thoroughbred Racing Association is having an open vote on Moment of the year. You can make your vote at www.ntra.com. I think that 2009 was a tremendous year for horse racing. There are a vast number of moments I witnessed, both great and frightful. However the essence of this post is to make known my vote of the year. I love exciting finishes when attending the races or viewing them from my computer. The NTRA has nominated some very great moments, which for most of us who love this game, will have a tough time picking out the best. Among my selections and my subsequent final vote are:

The Dubai World Cup is one of my favorite races of the year. I usually get up very early in the morning, eat a great, hearty breakfast, and head out to the Track Side OTB at Arlington Park. This year I thought the race in which Well Armed ridden by Aaron Gryder was a great race. Well Armed set the pace and never looked back. Fun to watch.

Obviously, the Kentucky Derby is my favorite event of the year. And to see that little horse, Mine That Bird, hug the rail under Calvin Borel, was indeed an exciting moment during the year. Almost as good as Street Sense's victory in 2007.

Who can forget the fantastic Preakness in which Rachel Alexander ran away from the boys to earn a spot in history. Boy, did Calvin Borel have an exciting and great year.

How about that 20 length lead Presious Passion had in the United Nations Stakes! While watching that race I though all the other horses would come back to him. They did, but he fought them off to victory.

I have to admit my second favorite race of the year is the Arlington Million on one of North America's most beautiful Turf courses. Over soft to good Turf the amazing Gio Ponti closed for home in victorious fashion. What a race that was!

Finally, the glorious Zenyatta in the Breeders Cup Classic with a thrilling finish under Mike Smith to beat the boys was one of the most exciting races I have seen. She made history on that day.

Clearly, a difficult choice. The envelope please....

My Moment of the Year Vote went to: Zenyatta in the Breeders Cup Classic.

You have until December 31, 2009 to make your vote. Please do so.

From New Orleans to Oklahoma City

Sunday is always a relaxing day to watch the races. Today we head on down to New Orleans for a sprint at Fairgrounds and over to a stakes race for the youngsters in Oklahoma City at Remmington.

Fairgrounds Race 8 {5 1/2 furlongs~Turf~3 year old Up~Louisiana Allowance}
Yesterday Fairgrounds got pounded by heavy rain and had to cancel the balance of its card after the eighth race. It is highly unlikely that this race will stay on the turf. We will look at it as if it will run on the main track. Under these conditions we like War Veteran (Rivera / Chatters). He appears to be in peak form with a solid last out speed number, a 59 day layoff and a terrific peaking work out. Like his chances within our show wagering strategy. Mark Safely (Jacinto / Richards) is an also eligible that if drawn into the race should be the winner. He is a solid 66% in the money on an off track. Add to that, he has the highest speed number on an off track and has some very fine peaking work outs prior to this race. Carol's Specialwon (Theriot / Frederick) has also done well over an off track. He has a nice last out speed number and nice race progression. Our only concern about Ben's Dr. Dan (Hernandez / Bourgeios) is that he has raced fourteen times already this year. That written, he can be considered a specialist at this distance (100% itm) and looks solid over an off track. With some hesitation let's play Fairgrounds.

$2 SHOW: #8 War Veteran
10 CENT Superfecta: #12 Mark Safely / #8 War Veteran / #6 Carol's Specialwon / #2 Ben's Dr. Dan

Remington Park Race 10 {Springboard Mile~1 mile~2 year old~Stakes}
What a solid field of youngsters looking to step up their game. Ron the Greek (B. Murphy / Amoss) looks ready to run a big race. With a strong last out speed number and strong work outs trainer, Thomas Amoss, has this guy ready. Comedero (Graham / Stidham) will likely be the favorite as he goes for his fourth win in a row. He will be formidable on the front end with James Graham in the irons. He has not yet gone this distance, but trainer Michael Stidham has worked him well in preparation for this race. Auspicious Risk (Kimes / Calhoun) looks to make another improvement moving up in distance also. He has a decent last out speed number and two good works, as trainer, Brett Calhoun, readied this charge for the race. Magic Max (J. Bridgmohan / S. Asmussen) and Man Chester Man (Pettinger / C. Asmussen) both look to step up for solid runs. They should be near the front within striking distance for a share of the purse here. Let's play Remington.

$2 SHOW: #6 Ron The Greek
10 CENT Superfecta: #6 Ron The Greek / #10 Comedero / #8 Auspicious Risk / #2 Magic Max, #3 Man Chester Man

Saturday's Results
Aqueduct R8. Our pick, Researcher, finished 2nd for $2.50 in show money. Superfecta went 6-2-5-8.
Hollywood R7. Our pick, High Court Drama(IRE), finished 2nd for $2.80 in show money. Superfecta went 1-5-4-6.
Our bankroll moved up a bit to $6.70.
Have a wonderful Sunday as we move closer to the Christmas week.