Saturday, May 7, 2016

Kentucky Derby 142

We are approximately three hours away from the greatest two minutes in sports, the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Thus far it has been a great day of racing. Now comes the time to predict the outcome of the run for the roses.

Churchill Downs Race 12 {The Kentucky Derby~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year old Up~Graded Stakes}

A high quality field of twenty, what we hope are happy and healthy horses, will go to the gate in the most magnificent race of the year. There is some speed and forwardly placed types that could control a moderate pace. It should be a great race for all handicappers.

#5 Gun Runner (Geroux / Asmussen) may be sitting on the best race of his young career. He looked every bit the professional when schooled in the paddock the other day. He comes into the race with a couple of very good last out speed numbers, a three race progression, and four superior peaking workouts. Trainer, Steve Asmussen, knows how to get his charges ready for a big race. This lad is four for four over a fast track. This son of Candy Ride [ARG] should track the pace closely looking for an opening to bust a move coming into the stretch. He appears to be sitting on a huge effort.
$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#2 Sudden Breaking News (L. Quinonez / Von Hemel) could be the exacta bomber this year with the fourth highest (3-way tie) last out speed number, a two race progression, and two lustrious workouts. Yes, he is a closer, but has shown the capability of being a little closer to the pace when racing as a two year-old. This son of Mineshaft is 87% in the money from eight career starts. He should be coming on strong as they swing into the stretch.
$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#17 Mor Spirit (Stevens / Baffert) looks ready to strike with a couple of very fine last out speed numbers sharing the fourth highest. He has put in two speedy workouts prepping for this race. This lad is one of only three in the field with a 100% in the money record. A son of Eskendreya, he should be tracking the pace ready to make his move at the top of the stretch.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#13 Nyquist (Gutierrez / O'Neill) will be the favorite as he was the two year old champion and is undefeated in seven career starts. This guy also shares the fourth highest last out speed number and has put in three stamina producing workouts. A millionaire son of Uncle Mo he should be pressing the pace of the probable leader, Danzing Candy. It is not inconceivable that he pulls off the victory.

#9 Destin (Castellano / Pletcher) should be a serious contender with the second highest last out speed number, a four race progression, and four high quality workouts. This guy will be striving for his third win in a row. A son of Giant's Causeway, he should be forwardly placed near the pace setters. He should hit the pedal going into the stretch.

$1 Superfecta

#5 Gun Runner  /  #2 Sudden Breaking News  /  #17 Mor Spirit  /  #13 Nyquist  /  #9 Destin.

Furlong Friday Results
Churchill Downs R7.  Eight Belles Stakes--G2.  Our pick, Nickname, finished 3rd for show money of $2.60.
Superfecta went 5-6-8-4.
Bankroll gets shaved by four dimes to settle at 6.26. We will supplement with a couple of Hamilton's for KD 142 day.

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