Saturday, May 2, 2015

Kentucky Derby 2015

It is the glorious first day in May.  All the prep races are now a distant memory. It is time for some of the very best three year-olds to strut their stuff onto the track for the 141st Kentucky Derby. It is time to etch the winners name in history when they head toward the wire.

Churchill Downs Race 11 {KENTUCKY DERBY~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A nearly full field of nineteen will make the start in the run for the roses. The race has plenty of speed and will go through quick fractions. It those will stamina and endurance that will make the trip successfully. None have gone this distance.  The speed numbers are all roughly comparable. It should be one of the most dramatic and exciting edition of the Kentucky Derby.

We will take a stab at the dollar Superfecta (No 10 CENT Superfecta is offered on Oaks and Derby days) as well as the dollar HI-5. Here are the picks:

#8 Dortmund (M. Garcia / Baffert) will come out of the gate seeking his seventh straight victory. He holds the second highest last out speed number, a four race progression, and two stellar workouts.  This son of Big Brown should be on or near the lead as they head into the first turn. With a good trip he should find the winners circle.
$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#2 Carpe Diem (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) should challenge by acquiring a ground saving trip along the rail.  He holds a couple of very good last out speed numbers scoring a victory in each. This lad is working a three race progression and has put in two robust workouts. This son of the legendary Giant's Causeway should take another step forward after his victory in the Bluegrass last out.
$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#6 Mubtaahij (Soumillion / de Kock) will making his first North American start for world class connections. He ran to a solid victory in the UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai. This guy has trained nicely up at beautiful Arlington Park before coming to Kentucky. This son of Dubawi [IRE] should easily cover this ground. He is the only one in the field who has a victory at close to the Derby distance (only a half furlong off). Traffic willing, he should find a nice tracking position and move smoothly into the stretch.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#18 American Pharoah (Espinoza / Baffert) could go off as the favorite after his spellbinding victory in the Arkansas Derby last out.  He holds a couple of very good last out speed numbers, a seven race progression, and two dynamite peaking workouts. This son of Pioneer of the Nile will shoot out of the gate seeking the lead. With the scratch of El Kabeir, he will be coming out of the seventeen hole and will need to angle out in similar fashion as 1982 Derby winner Gato del Sol to grab the lead. He is fast enough to accomplish that task, but it may take some energy out of him for the stretch run.

#19 Upstart (J. Ortiz / Violette) will be a factor with the fourth highest last out speed number, a three race progression, and two bullet workouts. This son of Flatter should track the pace closely ready to enjoin the trackers and closers heading for home. His last outing was a good second in the Florida Derby.

#12 International Star (Mena / Maker) should be in the mix with a couple of good last out speed numbers, a six race progression, and three athletic peaking workouts. It would be a treat for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey to score the Derby victory perhaps capping a storied career as breeders and owners. This son of Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus will be in the group of trackers and closers as they head around the track.

#3 Materiality (Castellano / Pletcher) should contend with the third highest (tie) last out speed number, a three race progression, and three superb peaking workouts. This son of Preakness and Belmont stakes winner, Afleet Alex, did not run as a two year-old which is one of those pesky Derby curses. He appears ready to attempt to break that stigma with a forwardly placed run.

One Dollar Superfecta

#8 Dortmund  /  #2 Carpe Diem  /  #6 Mubtaahij  /  #18 American Pharoah, #19 Upstart, #12 International Star, #3 Materiality.

One Dollar Super Hi-5

#8 Dortmund  /  #2 Carpe Diem  / #6 Mubtaahij  /  #18 American Pharoah  /  #19 Upstart, #12 International Star, #3 Materiality.

Friday's Results
Churchill Downs R6.  Edgewood--G3.  Our pick, Quality Rocks, finished 2nd for show money of $2.40.
We dumped our Superfecta play due to the scratch of Sunset Glow. Superfecta went 6-1-5-2.
Bankroll slithers up to $7.65.
We will supplement with a couple of Hamiltons for todays Big race, KD 141. 

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