Stakes Saturday at Churchill Downs

 A great day of racing under the Twin Spires on this Stakes Saturday. We look in on a Turf route for the fillies.

Churchill Downs Race 11 {Regret Stakes~G3~1 1/8 mile~3 year-old~Fillies~Graded Stakes}

A reduced field of nine will hit the grass in this "lucky last" stakes race on today's card.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

There is enough speed to carry the pace forward. Speed numbers are fairly close making the race quite competitive. All but one will be attempting this distance for the first time with two cutting back in distance and the rest making the stretch out. Four have covered the Churchill Turf nicely. It should be a fantastic race to cap off a great day of racing under the Twin Spires.

#5 Classic Q (J. Ortiz / M. Casse) is the deserved favorite with the highest last out speed number and one work over the Turf. This gal will stretch out to the distance. She should track the pace closely. In that last race she won over the Churchill Turf. A daughter of Classic Empire, she holds a 40% win rate from five starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#2 Hereforagoodtime (I. Ortiz / B. Walsh) is the only one that has competed at this distance hitting the board in both of her efforts. She comes in with two wins in a row and two fine peaking workouts. This filly has the tactical speed to adjust to the pace. A daughter of Justify, she is 57% in the money from seven starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#6 Totally Justified (L. Saez / Arnold) is another that will be stretching out to this distance. She holds the fourth highest last out speed number and three superb peaking workouts. This gal is another that should track the pace closely. Another daughter of Justify, she is 50% in the money from six starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#8 Fionn (Geroux / B. Cox) will also stretch out to this distance holding the second highest last out speed number and three solid workouts. She should close well into the pace. This girl loves the Turf. A daughter of Twirling Candy, she is 100% in the money from five starts.

#10 Golden Sunshine (Cheminaud / Harty) will be cutting back in distance with the third highest (tie) last out speed number and three strong peaking workouts. She is another that will track the pace closely. It will be her first attempt over the Churchill Turf. A daughter of Medaglia d'Oro, she is 75% in the money from eight starts.

#4 Fixin to Bee (J. Velazquez / Arnold) is the other filly that is cutting back in distance sharing the third highest lsat otu speed number and scoring four excellent workouts.She should track the pace comfortably. A daughter of Mshawish, she has a 28% win rate from seven starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#5 Classic Q  ///  #2 Hereforagoodtime,  #6 Totally Justified,  #8 Fionn,  #10 Golden Sunshine,  #4 Fixin to Bee.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#2,  #6,  #8,  #10,  #4  ///  #5 Classic Q.

Best of luck with all your Stakes Saturday plays!!!

Up North for Superfecta Sunday

 We look in on the "Lucky Last" up at that great racecourse in Canada on this Superfecta Sunday.

Woodbine Race 10 {7 Furlongs~All Weather~3 year-old Up~Fillies/Mares~Maiden Allowance}

A nice field of nine will go to the gate in this Maiden on the All-weather.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

This race appears a little light on speed. There will be two first-time starters. Speed numbers are fairly close among the rest. Four will be cutting back in distance from their last. Also, four are coming in off long layoffs to make their first start of the Woodbine season. It should be a very nice race on a great day of racing.

#5 Midsummer Mo (Vives / M. Casse) is cutting back in distance with four power workouts. She should track the pace and strike in the stretch. This filly enjoys the Tapeta and the track. A daughter of Mendelssohn, she is 55% in the money from nine starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#6 Just Magnificent (Munger / Chartrand-Hoek) comes off a long layoff prepping with four serious workouts. She should track the pace closely. This gal relishes the Tapeta and the track. A daughter of Big Screen, she is 75% in the money from four starts.

#9 Silent and Sinful (R. Hernandez / Chircop) could be the controlling speed of the field. She shares the highest last out speed number and holds one strong workout. She also holds the highest speed number over the Tapeta. This gal will stretch out to the distance. A daughter of Flintshire [GB], she is 27% in the money from eleven starts.

#3 Pioneer Mission (P. Moran / Chircop) will be making a surface switch from Turf to Tapeta. She holds the fourth highest last out speed number and four robust workouts. This mare is another that will be tracking the pace. A daughter of Pioneerof the Nile, she will be making her fourth career start looking to hit the board.

Other Wagering Interests

#4 R Canadian Apple (Campos / De Paulo) is one of the two first time starters in the field. She comes to the race with four stellar workouts demonstrating she is ready for the competition. A daughter of Street Sense, she is well prepped by solid connections.

#1 Flashinthesky (Aebly / Glennon) comes in off an extended layoff of one year plus. She holds three speedy workouts in the last thirty days. Look for her to be in the tracker pack positioning for the home stretch. She has earned good speed numbers in her two starts. A daughter of Sky Mesa, she is 100% in the money from those two career starts.

20 CENT Superfecta Box ($4.80)

#5 Midsumer Mo  +  #6 Just Magnificent  +  #9 Silent and Sinful  +  #3 Pioneer Mission.

20 CENT Superfecta Straight ($4.80)

#5 Midsummer Mo  /  #6 Just Magnificent  /  #9 Silent and Sinful,  #3 Pioneer Mission, #4 R Canadian Apple,  #1 Flashinthesky.

May all your tickets cash on this Superfecta Sunday!!!

Stakes Saturday at Churchill Downs

 On this Stakes Saturday we take in a nice race going long on the Turf under the Twin Spires.

Churchill Downs Race 9 {Keertana Stakes~1 1/2 mile~TURF~4 year-old Up~Fillies/Mares~Stakes}

A modest field of eight talented ladies will hit the Turf in this classic distance event.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

There is sufficient speed to keep the pace rolling in this long Turf race. Speed numbers are fairly close with six of these ladies having hit the triple digit mark in a least one of their last three outings. Three will be running over the Churchill Turf for the first time. Two will be stretching out to this distance. It is a very competitive race on a day of great racing.

#5 Marksman Queen [GB] (Dettori / Motion) comes in with the second highest last out speed number and two solid workouts. She should be part of the speed contingent on the front-end. This gal loves the Turf and will try the Churchill green for the first time. A daughter of Dubawi [IRE], she is 53% in the money from fifteen starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#2 Tarneema (Curtis / B. Walsh) will be tracking the pace and sprout into the stretch. She enjoys the Turf and the distance. This lady hit the board in her last and has put in two robust workouts in the last thirty days. A daughter of Kitten's Joy, she is 57% in the money from seven starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#6 Sugaree [IRE] (Machado / Delacour) comes in with the fourth highest last out speed number and two sound workouts. She excels at this distance. Look for her to sit a good trip among the tracking pack. A daughter of Camelot [GB], she is 44% in the money from nine starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#4 Strikingly Spun (J. Ortiz / Sharp) will be stretching out with the third highest last out speed number and three superb workouts. She rlishes the Turf and the course. This gal will fit it sweetly in the tracker pack. A daughter of Hard Spun, she is 52% in the money from nineteen starts.

#3 Holy Foley (M. Gutierrez / Lynch) holds the highest (tie) last out speed number and three excellent workouts two of which were over the Turf. She is another tracker that will battle for position. A daughter of Point of Entry, she is 33% in the money from twenty-four starts.

#7 Boss Lady Bailey (L. Saez / Maker) shares the highest last out speed number and has put in two sound workouts. She is another tracker ready for battle. This gal likes the distance and the Churchill course. A daughter of Connect, she is 58% in the money from twelve starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#5 Marksman Queen [GB]  ///  #2 Tarneema,  #6 Sugaree [IRE],  #4 Strikingly Spun,  #3 Holy Foley,  #7 Boss Lady Bailey.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#2,  #6,  #4,  #3,  #7  ///  #5 Marksman Queen [GB].

Best of luck with all your Stakes Saturday wagers!!!

PREAKNESS 150

 Oh Baltimore. We look in on the Stakes action at the historic racetrack, Pimlico. The focus will be on the 150th running of the Preakness.

Pimlico Race 13 {Preakness Stakes~G1~1 3/16 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A field of nine will go to the gate in the second Jewel of the Triple Crown.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

There is plenty of speed to produce a sizzling pace in this race. Speed numbers are fairly close, though five in the field have already hit triple-digit speed figs. All will be racing over the Pimlico track for the first time. Only one has gone this exact distance. Three exit the Kentucky Derby which is slightly longer. It should be a fine classic for the record books.

#2 Journalism (Rispoli / McCarthy) is the horse to beat. Having placed second in KD 151 he wheels back in two weeks. This guy is the only horse that has cobbled together three triple-digit speed figs in a row. Two good workouts make him ready to roll. Look for him to track the pace and explode into the stretch. A son of Curlin, he is 100% in the money from six starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#1 Goal Oriented (Prat / Baffert) will be making his third career start. He has speed but may sit right off the leaders. This colt holds the highest last out speed number and three powerful peaking workouts. He will stretch out to the distance. A son of Not This Time, he holds a 100% win rate from two starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#8 Clever Again (J. Ortiz / Asmussen) comes in with the second highest last out speed number and four superb peaking workouts. He will show speed! This guy will be seeking his third win in a row. A son of American Pharoah, he is 100% in the money from three starts.

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#6 River Thames (I. Ortiz / Pletcher) holds the third highest lst out speed number and three solid workouts. He should sit right behind the leaders and get first jump heading into the stretch. A son of Maclean's Music, he is 100% in the money from four starts.

#4 Heart of Honor [GB] (S. Osborne / J. Osborne) comes into the US after racing in UAE. This guy has cobbled three seconds in a row and has hit the board twice at this distance. He could be tracking the pace closely ready to strike in the stretch. A son of Honor A.P., he is 100% in the money from six starts.

#7 Sandman (J. Velazquez / M. Casse) will be closing mightily into the hot pace that is expected. He exits the Derby seeking to improve. This guy drops slightly in distance and has one sound workout. A son of Tapit, he is 66% in the money from nine starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#2 Journalism  ///  #1 Goal Oriented,  #8 Clever Again,  #6 River Thames,  #4 Heart of Honor [GB],  #7 Sandman.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#1,  #8,  #6,  #4,  #7  ///  #2 Journalism.

Best of luck with all your Preakness Day wagers!!!

 

Stakes Saturday at Baqueduct

 On this Stakes Saturday we look in on an exciting preparatory race for the coming Belmont Stakes.

Baqueduct Race 11 {Peter Pan Stakes~G3~1 1/8 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A reduced field of nine will to the gate in this annual event.

Past Performances used:  Equibase.

There will be sufficient speed to produce an honest pace. Speed figs are very close. Only five have competed over the track. A couple will stretch out to this distance for the first time. It should be a very good race on a great day of racing.

#8 Captain Cook (Franco / R. Dutrow) has improved his speed number in each of his four races. He holds the highest last out speed number and four strong peaking workouts. Look for him to track the pace closely and spring into the stretch. A son of Practical Joke, he has a 50%-win rate from those four starts.

$2 WIN  /  $3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#3 Surfside Moon (J. Alvarado / Lawrence) has hit the board in both of his starts at this distance. He holds the third highest last out speed number and three superb workouts. This guy will be part of the tracking crew seeking good position. He loves the dirt, distance, and track. A son of Malibu Moon, he is 57% in the money from seven starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#4 Hill Road (Prat / C. Brown) should track and close into a strong pace. He will stretch out and run over the track for the first time. This colt comes up from Tampa Bay with the fourth highest last out speed number and three solid workouts. A son of Quality Road, he is 75% in the money from four starts. 

$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#1 Vassimo (I. Ortiz / Pletcher) shares the fourth highest last out speed number. He has added three sound workouts to his arsenal. This guy comes up from Fair Grounds where he hit that speed number at a longer route. He should track the pace closely. A son of Nyquist, he has a 25% win rate from four starts.

#5 McAfee (J. Velazquez / R. Dutrow) comes out of a grade two with the second highest last out speed number and three good workouts. He will be part of the tracker pack. This guy has experience at the distance and over the track. A son of Cloud Computing, he is 50% in the money from four starts.

#9 Brereton's Baytown (Serpa / McEntee) should be forwardly placed pressing the pace. He has produced decent speed figs, but shows a powerful workout tab. This guy exits a grade one at Oaklawn Park. A son of Upstart, he has an 18% win rate from eleven starts.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($5.00)

#8 Captain Cook  ///  #3 Surfside Moon,  #4 Hill Road,  #1 Vassimo,  #5 McAfee,  #9 Brereton's Baytown.

Reverse the Wheel ($5.00)

#3,  #4,  #1,  #5,  #9  /// #8 Captain Cook.

Best of luck with all your Stakes Saturday plays!!!

 

 

Happy Kentucky Derby Day!!!

 The day we have all waited for his here. Kentucky Derby 151. Since posted two of our Notable Nine have been scratched. We will add two horses to complete our notable nine. On this, the highest of horse racing holy days, we will go full spectrum on our wagers.

Churchill Downs Race 12 {Kentucky Derby 151~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year-old~graded stakes}

There will be speed, mostly to the inside, though a couple will need to speed from outside posts. Despite the possibility of an off-track, it should be a sizzling pace. Only two have hit a Triple digit Beyer speed fig, #8 Journalism and #21 Baeza. Only three have raced near the distance, #6 Admire Daytona, #14 Tiztastic, and #19 Chunk of Gold. Eight in the field have raced over the Churchill track. Other than the triple-digit earners, speed figs are fairly close. This should be another tremendous running of the Kentucky Derby.

#14 Tiztastic (Rosario / Asmussen) could be world class trainer, Steve Asmussen's first Kentucky Derby winner. He should find a nice tracking position under Rosario's patient ride. This guy could weave. bob, and juke around his opponents as they head into the stretch run. A son of Tiz the Law out of the Tapit mare Keesha is 100% in the money over the Churchill track.

$2 WIN  /  #3 PLACE  /  $5 SHOW.

#7 Luxor Cafe (Moreira / Noriyuki) will benefit from an off-track. He is 100% in the money from four starts over an off track. This guy is an American made son of Triple-Crown winner American Pharoah out of a More Than Ready mare Mary's Follies. This guy is another that should take up a nice tracking position and strike in the stretch. He is 83% in the money from six starts.

$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#8 Journalism (Rispoli / McCarthy) is the very deserved favorite as the only horse to have posted two triple-digit Beyer speed figs. He is a tough horse with a very strong turn of foot. He needs a good trip to be victorious. A son of the great sire Curlin, he holds an 80% win rate from five starts.

$2 SHOW.

The rest of our Notable Nine KD 151 Contenders

#21 Baeza (Prat / Shirreffs) gets added to our notable nine as he draws in. He is the only other horse earning a triple-digit Beyer speed fig. This guy should chase the pace closely. Two stamina inducing workouts should help him carry the distance. A son of McKinzie out of a Big Brown mare, Puca, he is 75% in the money from four starts.

#19 Chunk of Gold (Loveberry / E. West) will be part of the closer pack heading into the stretch. This guy has doubled up his speed figs in his last two races. He could be sitting on a big race. A strong workout tab of four power works indicates he is ready. A son of Preservationist out of a Cairo Prince mare Play for Good, he is 100% in the money from four starts.

#18 Sovereignty (J. Alvarado / W. Mott) is a deep closer and with a hot pace he can be expected to be in the mix. This colt has a commanding win over the Churchill track. A son of Into Mischief out of Bernardini mare Crowned, he is 80% in the money from five starts.

#17 Sandman (J. Ortiz / M. Casse) is one of four Millionaires in the race. This guy will be tracking and closing handsomely. Gray is Good. This Arkansas Derby winner has competed over the Churchill track. A son of Tapit out of a Distorted Humor mare Distorted Music he is 75% in the money from eight starts.

#9 Burnham Square (B. Hernandez / Wilkes) is another one in the closing community expected to really start running heading into the stretch. This lad has improved his Beyer speed figs in each of his six races run. A son of Liam's Map out of a Scat Daddy mare Linda, he is 83% in the money from six starts.

#1 Citizen Bull (M. Garcia / Baffert) will attempt to be the speed of the race from the rail position. This guy will put on the ski mask and try to steal the race as the controlling speed. His powerful peaking workout tab has put stamina and endurance into him to get the distance. Another son of Into Mischief out of a Distorted Humor mare No Joke, he is 83% in the money from six stats.

$1 Exacta Wheel ($8.00)

#14 Tiztastic  /// #7 Luxor Cafe,  #8 Jornalism, #21 Baeza,  #19 Chunk of Gold,  #18 Sovereignty,  #17 Sandman,  #9 Burnham Square,  #1 Citizen Bull.

Reverse the Wheel ($8.00)

#7,  #8,  #21,  #19,  #18,  #17,  #9,  #1  ///  #14 Tiztastic.

50 CENT Trifecta Box ($3.00)

#14 Tiztastic  +  #7 Luxor Cafe  +  #8 Jornalism.

50 CENT Trifecta Straght ($3.50)

#14 Tiztastic  /  #7 Luxor Cafe  /  #8,  #21,  #19,  #18,  #17,  #9,  #1.

$1 Superfecta Straight ($6.00)

#14 Tiztastic  /  #7 Luxor Cafe  /  #8 Journalism  /  #21,  #19,  #18, #17,  #9,  #1.

$1 Pentafecta [Super High Five] ($5.00)

#14 Tiztastic  /  #7 Luxor Cafe  /  #8 Journalism  /  #21 Baeza  /  #19,  #18,  #17,  #9,  #1.

The very best of luck with all your Kentucky Derby selections!!!   

  

Notable Nine for Kentucky Derby 151

 The Kentucky Derby 151 is this Saturday. On this "Thurby" we take a look at our top nine horses that can be expected to run well in the race. We'll look at lay-out some of the stats of these horses in post-position order. 

#4 Rodriguez (M. Garcia / Baffert) can be expected to be on or near the lead. He has worked well during the last thirty days. Son of 2020 Derby winner, Authentic.

Top Beyer Speed fig:  101

Last Race / Place:  Wood Memorial 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $104.5.

Jockey Trainer Win %.  M. Garcia (.05) / Baffert (.30) routes.

#7 Luxor Cafe (Moreira / Noriyuki) should travel close to pace. He punched his ticket on the Japan road to the Derby. Son of 2015 Derby winner, American Pharoah.

Top Speed Number: posted a Time Form rating of 103.

Last Race / Place:  Japan 1st. (winner of four races in a row).

Avg. earnings per race:  $63.1.

No Stats on the Jockey / Trainer win percentages.

#8 Journalism (Rispoli / McCarthy) is the deserved favorite and will be hard to beat. He should track the pace closely. Son of Curlin.

Top Beyer speed fig:  108.

Last Race / Place: Santa Anita Derby 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $127.7.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  Rispoli (.22) / McCarthy (.18) routes.

#9 Burnham Square (B. Hernandez / Wilkes) will be tracking and closing. Strong work-out tab. Son of Liam's Map.

Top Beyer Speed fig: 96.

Last Race / Place:  Bluegrass Stakes 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $162.9.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  B. Hernandez (.18) / Wilkes (.13) routes.

#10 Grande (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) should be tracking the pace closely. Three race progression with one decent workout. Another son of Curlin.

Top Beyer Speed fig: 97.

Last Race / Place:  Wood Memorial 2nd.

Avg. earnings per race:  $76.0.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  J. Velazquez (12) / Pletcher (.17) routes.

#14 Tiztastic (Rosario / Asmussen) will be tracking and closing into the pace. Superb three peaking workouts. Ready for the race. A son of Tiz the Law.

Top Beyer Speed fig:  95.

Last Race / Place: Louisiana Derby 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $193.7.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  Rosario (.13) / Asmussen (.16) routes.

#17 Sandman (J. Ortiz / M. Casse) should be tracking and closing swiftly. Two good workouts. Gray is good. A son of Tapit.

Top Beyer speed fig:  99.

Last Race / Place:  Arkansas Derby 1st.

Avg. earnings per race:  $156.8.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  J. Ortiz (.24) / M. Casse (.15) routes.

#18 Sovereignty (J. Alvarado / W. Mott) is another one of the closing crew. Three robust workouts in the last thirty days. Son of Into Mischief.

Top Beyer Speed fig:  95.

Last Race / Place:  Florida Derby 2nd.

Avg. earnings per race:  $114.5.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  J. Alvarado (.16) / W. Mott (.13) routes.

#19 Chunk of Gold (Loveberry / E. West) is more of a tracker that could get first jump on the closers. Four power workouts in the last thirty days. Son of Preservationist.

Top Beyer Speed fig:  92 (earned twice in his last two)

Last Race / PLace:  Louisiana Derby 2nd.

Avg. earnings per race:  $87.2.

Jockey / Trainer Win %:  Loveberry (.13) / E. West (.08) routes.

We will post our KD 151 picks early Saturday (5/3) morning. Look out for any scratches to the field in the meantime.

Best of luck to all your plays leading up to the Run for the Roses!!!