Sunday, April 18, 2010

Two of the Best Tracks; Keeneland and Santa Anita

Today we look at a couple of very nice stakes races at Keeneland and Santa Anita. 
The Kentucky Derby is only two weeks away.

Keeneland Race 8 {Ben Ali~G3~1 1/8 mile~4 year old Up~Stakes}
A terrific Sunday afternoon race with eight going to the gate.  The Jonathan Sheppard trained, Just As Well (Leparoux / Sheppard ), looks to be the horse to beat.  He has the highest speed number overall (tie) and over the Turf.  His last out speed number is tops and has coupled it with two blazing workouts.  There is no doubt he will be the favorite.  It also helps that jockey, Julian Leparoux, who is having another great Keeneland meet, will be onboard.  It appears the chief challenger will be Dubious Miss (Borel / McGee) with the second highest last out speed number and three superb workouts.  This guy loves the Keeneland track.  It would not be a surprise if he nips Just As Well at the wire.  Big Top (Gomez / Zito) looks solid with the third highest last out speed number, a three race progression, and two hardy workouts.  Giant Oak (Bridgmohan / Pessin) should run a good race with a decent last out speed number and two sinewy workouts.  This will be the big lumbering horse's second venture over the synthetic surface.  Could be a surprise.  Palladio (Desormeaux / Attfield) has the second highest speed number at the distance, a decent last out speed number, a five race progression and three athletic workouts.  He will be in the mix.  Timber Reserve (Castellano / Kimmel) shows the highest speed number at the distance, the third highest (tie) speed number last out, a three race progression, and three limber workouts.  He is likely to be the speed and at Keeneland speed has held sway at this meet.  Let's play this highly competitive race at Keeneland.

$2 WIN:  #3 Just As Well
$2 SHOW:  #4 Dubious Miss
10 CENT Superfecta:  #3 Just As Well / #4 Dubious Miss / #2 Big Top, #5 Giant Oak / #6 Palladio, #8 Timber Reserve, #2, #5.

Santa Anita Race 10 {San Juan Capistrano~G2~1 3/4 mile~Turf~4 year old and Up~Stakes}
A full field goes to the gate in an exciting end to the Santa Anita meet.  This another race in which the prospective winner may be a forgone conclusion.  Bourbon Bay (Bejarano / Drysdale) looks to be the very best in this long distance route.  He shows the second highest last out speed number (tie) along with three brawny workouts.  Bourbon Bay loves the Santa Anita turf and has been perfect in his three races over the surface.  No doubt will be the horse to beat.  Yodelen Dan (Espinoza / Mulhall) looks in great shape for the season finale with a six race progression and two great workouts.  He too loves the Santa Anita turf where he is 85% in the money with thirteen races over it.  The hard knocking Yodelen Dan will run a good race.  Falcon Rock [IRE] (Tallamo / S. Callaghan) looks ready to fire with a decent last out speed number and three virile workouts.  Stalingrad (Flores / Cassidy) will be the speed in this race and most assuredly set the pace.  Stalingrad has the highest last out speed number and four gymnastic, peaking workouts.  It should be noted that none of the twelve entrants in this race has gone the 1 3/4 mile distance.  Let's have fun with this "marathon" distance Turf race at Santa Anita.

$2 WIN:  #10 Bourbon Bay.
$2 SHOW:  #3 Yodelen Dan.
10 CENT Superfecta:  #10 Bourbon Bay / #3 Yodelen Dan / #4 Falcon Rock [IRE] / #11 Stalingrad.
















Saturday's Results
Keeneland R9.  Our first pick, Call Shot, finished 11th.  Our second pick, Connemarra, finished 10th.  Superfecta went 8-4-2-12.
Bankroll drops to $4.10.  We will supplement with $10.00 for today's races.
Hopefully we will end this slumping weekend with good investments today.

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