Saturday, June 7, 2014

Triple Crown on the Line

It is Belmont Stakes Day on this Stakes Saturday.  The Triple Crown is on the line as California Chrome will run the final leg.

It's 0540, Arlington Park Time.  Horsemen and horsewomen are making their rounds checking in on their charges...And wondering if Chrome will be the next Triple Crown champion??  It has been thirty-six years since it was last captured by Affirmed.

You can't help but cheer for this horse and his connections.  Working men and women chasing a dream against the odds.  It is a uniquely American story and a genuinely classic California tale.

On the race analysis.

Belmont Park Race 11 {BELMONT STAKES~G1~1 1/2 mile~3 year olds~Stakes}
A top quality field of eleven will go to the gate in the last of the Triple Crown races.  There are a handful of horse that will be forwardly placed which should produce a controlled pace.  All eyes will be on California Chrome and his trademark spurt.  It should be one of the most exciting races in recent memory.

#2 California Chrome (Espinoza / Sherman) is the horse to beat.  This glorious son of Lucky Pulpit has already banked over $3.4 million. He holds the highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and one solid workout.  He should be forwardly placed for the victory, though there will be not much value as he should be the overwhelming favorite.
$1 WIN.

#11 Tonalist (Rosario / Clement) should challenge as he should also be forwardly placed.  This son of Tapit holds the second highest (tie) last out speed number, a four race progression, and two stellar workouts.  This lad also holds the highest speed number over the Belmont oval.
$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#9 Wicked Strong (Maragh / Jerkens) should contend having been in the money in two starts at Belmont Park.  He placed fourth in the Kentucky Derby in his last race earning him fourth.  An o.k. speed figure was derived from that race. This son of Hard Spun has put in three sensational peaking workouts since.  He should be coming on, well, er, Wicked Strong in the stretch.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#5 Ride on Curlin (J. Velazquez / Gowan) should also be coming on strong as he did in his second place finish in the Preakness.  This son of Curlin shares the second highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and two endurance producing workouts.  He should be running late.

#8 Commissioner (Castellano / Pletcher) should have no trouble with the distance as his daddy, A.P Indy, was the 1992 Belmont Stakes winner.  He holds the third highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and two quality peaking workouts.  He is another that will be running speedily through the stretch.

#4 Commanding Curve (Bridgmohan / Stewart) should be in the mix easily handling the marathon distance.  He holds the fourth highest last out speed number, a four race progression, and three superb peaking workouts.  This son of Master Command will be making a late run toward the wire.

10 CENT Superfecta ($2.40)
We will deploy what we call a Lambrakis method 10 CENT Superfecta as follows:

#2 California Chrome, #11 Tonalist  /  #2, #11, #9 Wicked Strong  /  #2, #11, #9, #5 Ride On Curlin  /  #2, #11, #9, #5, #8 Commissioner, #4 Commanding Curve.

Friday's Results
Belmont Park R9.  True North--G2.  Our first pick, Palace, won (1st) for show money of $4.80.  Our second pick, Integrity, finished 7th (last).
Superfecta went 7-8-6-1.
Bankroll picks up a few dimes to settle at $22.94.

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