Saturday, May 4, 2019

Kentucky Derby 145 Notable Nine

On this the first Saturday in May we look at the greatest two minutes in sports, The 145th running of the KENTUCKY DERBY.

Churchill Downs Race 12 {KENTUCKY DERBY~G1~1 1/4 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A smashing field of nineteen will go the gate this afternoon (6:50 pm EDT) to compete in the greatest horse race in the world. The pace will be fast. The speed numbers are fairly close which makes this the most competitive Kentucky Derby in recent memory. There are already two millionaires in the field, Game Winner and Plus Que Parfait, both bred to relish this distance. The program numbers remain the same, but with the scratch of Derby favorite, Omaha Beach and Haikal, the post positions have changed somewhat.  Wager and watch what will be the absolute best race of the year.

#16 Game Winner (Rosario / Baffert) has been peaked for this race by his connections as he will make his third start in the form cycle. He holds the second highest (tie) last out speed number and has put in two stamina producing workouts in preparation. A son of Candy Ride [ARG], he should be tracking the pace closely. The juvenile champ is ready to conquer this field over the track he was crowned as such.
$2 WIN  /  $3 SHOW  /  $5 PLACE

#1 War of Will (Gaffalione / M. Casse) has the best pedigree to get this distance. His chances have greatly improved since the scratch of Haikal as he will launch out of post position two and not the dreaded post position one. It is possible for him to wire this field just as Serengetti Empress did in yesterday's Kentucky Oaks. His connections have already indicated he will use his speed from the gate. This colt did not fair well in his last race, but has put together the best workout tab of any in this field, stringing together four powerful peaking workouts. A son of War Front, do not underestimate his talent.
$2 PLACE  /  $3 SHOW.

#8 Tacitus (J. Ortiz / Mott) should challenge from a great post position. This lad shares the second highest last out speed number combined with two hearty workouts. He comes into KD145 on a three race winning streak. This colt has improved in each race run and should continue to do so. A son of Tapit, he will be tracking the pace looking for openings to move through the pack.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#7 Maximum Security (L. Saez / Ja. Servis) will contend. As of this writing he is the favorite at 9-2 among the current wagers. The winner of the Florida Derby, he should be forwardly placed. Undefeated in his four career races, this guy could do it for the same ownership that owns our top selection. A son of New Year's Day, this guy has put in three quality workouts prepping for this Derby.

#5 Improbable (I. Ortiz / Baffert) should be in the mix with the highest last out speed number and three hearty workouts. He has been victorious over the Churchill track. A son of City Zip, he should be running close to the pace ready to strike in the long stretch.

#9 Plus Que Parfait (Santana / B. Walsh) has the stamina for this distance. While there are those that do not give much weight to the winner of the UAE Derby in Dubai, this guy is different. He is 100% in the money over the Churchill track from two starts. Should the pace get a little frothy, this guy will be running late. A son of Point of Entry, he is what the Brits like to call a "stayer".

#6 Vekoma (Castellano / Weaver) is another that is 100% in the money from four career starts. He holds some excellent last out speed numbers and two robust workouts. This lad should be sitting in the mid-pack with so many others looking for holes to shoot through. Another son of Candy Ride [ARG], he won the Bluegrass Stakes last time out.

#13 Code of Honor (J. Velazquez / McGaughey) will be closing gamely into a strong pace. This colt holds the second highest (tie) overall speed number and has put in three solid peaking workouts in preparation for the big dance. A son of Noble Mission [GB], he is 80% in the money from five career starts.

#20 Country House (Prat / Mott) is another closer that has a chance to break into the exotics. He has improved with every race run and has put in two superb workouts in preparation. A son of Lookin at Lucky, he could surprise.

Exotic Plays

50 CENT TRIFECTA;  #16 Game Winner  /  #1 War of Will, #8 Tacitus  /  #7 Maximum Security, #5 Improbable, #9 Plus Que Parfait, #6 Vekoma, #13 Code of Honor, #20 Country House. ($6.00 wager).

$1 SUPERFECTA:  #16 Game Winner  /  #1 War of Will  /  #8 Tacitus  /  #7 Maximum Security, #5 Improbable, #9 Plus Que Parfait, #6 Vekoma,  #13 Code of Honor,  #20 Country House.  ($6.00 wager)

$1 SUPER HI-FIVE:  #16 Game Winner  /  #1 War of Will  /  #8 Tacitus  /  #7 Maximum Security  /  #5 Improbable, #9 Plus Que Parfait, #13 Code of Honor, #20 Country House.  ($5.00 wager).

$1 EXACTA Wheel  #16 Game Winner /  #1, #8, #7, #5, #9, #6, #13, #20.  ($8.00 wager).




Last Superfecta Sunday (4/28) Results
Lone Star Park R7.  Steve Sexton Mile.  We just missed on our 10 CENT Superfecta box effort, capturing three of the four wagering interests required to cash. Superfecta went 9-4-1-6.
Our Bronze Horseshoe selection, Forevamo, finished 7th.
Bankroll drops to $53.26.





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