Saturday, April 9, 2011

It's Getting Close to Derby Time

A great Saturday of Kentucky Derby prep races unfold with less than thirty days to KD 137.  A number of potential contenders have fallen off the derby trail which makes today's derby prep races more important than ever.

Today we look at the Illinois Derby and the Santa Anita Derby.  Both races promise to be very exciting with full fields.

Hawthorne Race Course Race 7 {Illinois Derby~G3~1 1/8 mile~3 year old~Stakes}

An interesting derby prep race with a single "A" field of twelve going to the gate.  Potential rain could make this one all the more intriguing with the speedsters holding the edge.  Horses without a strong workout tab will have tough going over the Hawthorne track.

#3 Joe Vann (Geroux / Pletcher) holds a slight edge despite the fact there is plenty of speed in this field.  He holds the third highest (tie) last out speed number and two sufficient workouts.  He will be forwardly placed.
$1 WIN / SHOW.

#4 Watch Me Go (L. Garcia / O'Connell) will challenge mightily.  The Tampa Bay Derby winner will be moving up in distance seeking another graded stakes win.  He already has punched his ticket to KD 137 so there is little pressure on his connections and it is not a must win situation. This champ has the highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and two athletic, peaking workouts.
$1 PLACE / SHOW.

#2 Smarter Than Ever (Santana / Hanna) This guy is in it for a piece of the purse with the second highest speed number over the distance and three robust workouts.  He will be close to the pace and may surprise.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests
#7 The Fed Eased (Valdivia / Violette) looks to be a serious contender in this race and it would not be a surprise for him to pull off an upset.  He holds the fourth highest speed number over the surface, has done well over a moist surface, and has put in three solid workouts.

#11 Southern Sculptor (Medina / Guillot) looks well prepped to compete in this race with a decent last out speed number, a two race progression, and two swift workouts.

10 CENT Superfecta
#3 Joe Vann, #4 Watch Me Go / #3, #4 / #2 Smarter Than Ever, #7 The Fed Eased, #11 Southern Sculptor / #2, #7, #11.

Santa Anita Race 10 {Santa Anita Derby~G1~1 1/8 mile~3 year old~Stakes}
With the withdrawal of Jaycito and the injury to Premier Pegasus, this race could not be more challenging and exciting.  A full field of nine runners will make the start.  This race will have a great balance of differing running styles bringing the skills of the jockey's to the forefront.

#8 Anthony's Cross (Rosario / Harty) has been well managed and will be firing very fresh.  He has the second highest last out speed number at this distance, a six race progression, and four stellar, peaking workouts.  Could be the one to beat.
$2 SHOW.

#4 Silver Medallion (Gomez / Asmussen) will challenge with the highest last out speed number at this distance, a five race progression, and four sensational, peaking workouts.  It could be a heart pounding finish between him and Anthony's Cross.
$2 SHOW.

#3 Mr. Commons (Smith / Shirreffs) will surprise with the third highest last out speed number and five superior, peaking workouts.  He will be moving up in distance as well as stature.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interest
#9 Bench Points (Bejarano / Yakteen) will be closing fast and is capable of pulling off a victory with a decent last out speed number and two hearty workouts.  He also loves the Santa Anita track posting the highest speed number on it.

10 CENT Superfecta
#8 Anthony's Cross, #4 Silver Medallion / #8, #4 / #3 Mr. Commons, #9 Bench Points / #3, #9.

















Friday's Results
Keeneland R9. Transylvania Stakes.  Our first pick, Great Mills, finished 2nd for show money of $4.80.  Our second pick, Adirondack Summer, finished 3rd for show money of $3.40.  Our third pick, Powhatan County, finished 5th.  Superfecta went 5-7-6-9.
Bankroll rises a bit to $10.20.  We will supplement with $10.00 for todays great stakes races.

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