Saturday, June 6, 2015

Belmont Stakes Day 2015

The "Test of a Champion" takes place today in this year's 147th running of the Belmont Stakes.

Belmont Park Race 11 {Belmont Stakes~G1~1 1/2 mile~3 year-old~Graded Stakes}

A field of eight will make the start in the third leg of the Triple Crown. American Pharoah seeks to make history as the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. He should be the speed of the race with a couple of others close in tow. The rest will be either tracking or closing valiantly. Only three have charted triple digit Beyer speed figs, the rest are still improving. It should be a smashing race. Post time is expected to be 6:50 pm Eastern time.

#5 American Pharoah (Espinoza / Baffert) may get the job done and place his name in the history books for eternity. He holds the highest last out speed number with his win in the Preakness and has put in two rugged workouts. He is up against it though with six wins in a row against mighty competition. This son of Pioneer of the Nile has notched three of those victories over a dirt surface from three efforts. He will need to control the pace up front and have enough in the tank to fend off those coming from off the pace. This lad has the best shot of any in recent member to capture the crown.
$1 WIN.

#3 Madefromlucky (Castellano / Pletcher) has the best potential to be the upsetter with the third highest (tie) last out speed number, an amazing seven race progression, and two serious peaking workouts. This son of Preakness winner, Lookin at Lucky, should be tracking the pace ready to enter the fray. he is the only horse in the field with a victory over the Belmont track. A powerful jockey-trainer combination could bring this guy home with flourish.
$1 PLACE  /  $2 SHOW.

#1 Mubtaahij [IRE] (I. Ortiz / de Kock) is the other in the race with strong upset possibility. There is a reason world class trainer, Michael de Kock chose Belmont's leading rider, Irad Ortiz. It gives this lad the best chance to win. Despite taking a disappointing eight place in the Kentucky Derby, this guy has trained magnificently over the Belmont track with six superb workouts. This "Cheery" son of Dubawi [IRE] will be tracking the pace ready to explode into the stretch.
$2 SHOW.

Other Wagering Interests

#6 Frosted (Rosario / McLaughlin) has the tactical speed to stay close with the leaders and make a move in the sweeping Belmont turn. He holds the second highest last out speed number and has put in three solid peaking workouts. This son of Tapit is the only other horse in the field that has race at Belmont with in the money success. He holds a 75% overall in the money record from eight starts.

#8 Materiality (J. Velazquez / Pletcher) should contend gallantly sharing the third highest last out speed number and putting in three strong peaking workouts. This son of Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner, Afleet Alex, has a decent shot at the upset. He holds the highest speed number over the dirt. This guy should be motoring on the front end with the Pharoah.

#7 Keen Ice (Desormeaux / Romans) has the best capability of getting the distance. With the fourth highest last out speed number, a two race progression, and four exceptional peaking workouts he will be a major player in the race. This son of Preakness winner, Curlin, will be firing late and swoop swiftly into a hot pace.

We will deploy the Lambrakis method for our 10 CENT Superfecta play. H/T to Southern California handicapper Paul Lambrakis whose monograph, The 10 CENT Superfecta Betting Guide, should be in every serious handicappers courier bag. Our cost will be $2.40.

#5 American Pharoah, #3 Madefromlucky  /  #5, #3, #1 Mubtaahij [IRE]  /  #5, #3, #1, #6 Frosted  /  #5, #3, #1, #6, #8 Materiality, #7 Keen Ice.

Furlong Friday Results
Belmont Park R8.  True North--G2.  Our first pick, Dads Caps, finished 3rd for show money of $2.80.  Our second pick, Eastwood, finished 4th.
Superfecta went 8-2-5-6.
Bankroll gets shaved to $18.93.

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