Saturday, October 16, 2010

Keneland and Canadian Turf Today

On this Saturday Stakes day we look at two very competitive grade one Turf races.  The Queen Elizabeth II at Keeneland and the Canadian International at Woodbine.

Keeneland Race 9 {Queen Elizabeth II~G1~1 1/8 mile~Turf~3 year old~fillies~Stakes}
This will be an extremely competitive race.  Of the field of eight, only one filly has raced over the Keeneland Turf.  The California invaders are the ones to beat.  Harmonious (Rosario / Shirreffs) is well prepped with the third highest (tie) last our speed number, a five race progression, and four stout, peaking workouts.  Evening Jewel (Espinoza / Cassidy) will challenge also with the third highest last out speed number, a three race progression, and four well-built, peaking workouts.  Zagora [FR] (Leparoux / Rouget) will also challenge having a win at this distance in her native France and also coming off a longer Turf route.  Perfect Shirl (J. Velazquez / Attfield) will be in the mix with fifth highest last out speed number at this distance and four ferocious workouts.  La Cloche (Alvarado / Toner) will be the surprise and in the hunt.  She has a couple of decent last out speed numbers and four solid peaking workouts.  Let's play Keeneland.

$2 SHOW:  #3 Evening Jewel.
$2 SHOW:  #6 Harmonious.
10 CENT Superfecta:  #6 Harmonious / #3 Evening Jewel / #1 Zagora [FR] / #7 Perfect Shirl, #8 La Cloche.

Woodbine Race 10 {Canadian International~G1~1 1/2 mile~Turf~3 year old Up~Stakes}
What a great group of nine classic distance Turfers.  The Euro Invaders may have the upperhand in this one.  Redwood [GB] (Hills / Hills) has the highest last out speed number and is 75% in the money at this distance over four races.  Joshua Tree [IRE] (O'Donoghue / O'Brien)  will challenge with a couple of great races in Great Britain last out and nice improvement in each of his last five races.  Chinchon [IRE] (Gomez / Laffon) ran an exciting victorious race in North America two races back, but struggled a little in his last out race in France.  He can be expected to challenge the other Euros in this race.  Fifty Proof (Stein / Black) will most assuredly be in the mix with the second highest speed number last out and two explosive workouts.  He can be expected to be the speed in this race.  Simmard (Castellano / Attfield) will be the surprise with a decent last out speed number at shorter route distance, a two race progression, and four terrific, peaking workouts.  He also loves the Woodbine track as he is 86% in the money on it.  The veteran Turfer, Marsh Side (Prado / Drysdale) will be in the hunt with the highest speed number at the distance and three strengthening workouts.  He cannot be discounted in this event.  Let's play Woodbine.

$2 SHOW:  #8 Redwood [GB].
$2 SHOW:  #7 Joshua Tree [IRE].
Woodbine doesn't offer a 10 CENT Superfecta.

















Friday's Results
Keeneland R8.  Our pick, Fast Alex, finished 6th.  Superfecta went 9-12-1-7.
Keeneland R9.  Our first pick, Broken Dreams, finished 5th.  Our second pick, West Ocean, finished 3rd for show money of $2.10.  Superfecta went 12-5-4-7.
Bankroll falls to $3.20.  We will supplement with $10.00 for today's races.

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